World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights (World Energy Outlook)

World leaders have pledged to act to change the energy future. Some new policies are in place. But the trends in energy demand, imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 in this years World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006. China and India are the emerging giants of the world economy. Their unprecedented pace of economic development will require ever more energy, but it will transform living standards for billions. There can be no question of asking them selectively to curb growth so as to solve problems which are global. So how is the transition to be achieved to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system? WEO 2007 provides the answers. With extensive statistics, projections in three scenarios, analysis and advice, it shows China, India and the rest of the world why we need to co-operate to change the energy future and how to do it. Table of Content : PART A. GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA AND INDIA 1. Global Energy Trends 2. Energy Trends in China and India 3. International Trade and the World Economy 4. The World's Energy Security 5. Global Environmental Repercussions 6. Energy Policy Ramifications PART B. CHINA'S ENERGY PROSPECTS 7. Political, Economic and Demographic Context 8. Overvier of the Energy Sector 9. Reference Scenario Demand Projections 10. Reference Scenario Supply Projections 11. Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 12. High Growth Scenario Projections 13. Focus on the Coastal Region PART C. INDIA'S ENERGY PROSPECTS 14. Political, Economic and Demographic Context 15. Overview of the Energy Sector 16. Reference Scenario Demand Projections 17. Reference Scenario Supply Projections 18. Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 19. High Growth Scenario Projections 20. Focus on Energy Poverty Annex A. Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections Annex B. Abbreviations, Definitions and Conversion Factors Annex C. Acronyms Annex D. References WEO2007_part1_unsecured......Page 0 FOREWORD......Page 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS......Page 14 List of Figures......Page 23 List of Tables......Page 32 List of Boxes......Page 37 List of Spotlights......Page 39 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......Page 43 INTRODUCTION......Page 55 PART A - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA......Page 73 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 75 Global Energy Prospects......Page 76 Energy Investment......Page 96 Global Energy Prospects......Page 98 Energy Investment......Page 107 Global Energy Prospects......Page 110 Energy Investment......Page 116 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 119 Energy Demand......Page 120 Energy Supply......Page 125 Investment Needs......Page 131 Alternative Policy Scenario......Page 132 High Growth Scenario......Page 135 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 137 Explaining China’s and India’s Economic Growth......Page 138 International Trade and Financial Flows......Page 142 Global Economic and Energy Market Linkages......Page 147 Simulating the Impact of Faster Growth in China and India......Page 151 Energy and Other Commodity Prices and Expenditures......Page 153 International Trade......Page 154 Economic Growth and Structure in the Rest of the World......Page 157 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 161 Defining Energy Security......Page 162 How Supply Disruptions Affect Consuming Countries......Page 165 Measuring Energy Security......Page 166 Oil......Page 167 Natural Gas......Page 173 Coal......Page 176 The Energy Security Policies of China and India......Page 177 Impact of Rising Energy Demand......Page 183 Impact of China’s and India’s Energy Security Policies......Page 189 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 193 Global Trends......Page 194 Contribution of China and India to Global Emissions......Page 198 Implications for Climate Change......Page 206 The 450 Stabilisation Case......Page 209 CO2 Capture and Storage......Page 218 Power-Generation Technologies......Page 222 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 227 Addressing Energy Security and Climate Challenges......Page 228 Policy Co-operation with China and India......Page 232 Technology Co-operation and Collaboration......Page 237 Role of the Clean Development Mechanism......Page 240 WEO2007_part2_unsecured......Page 243 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 245 The Political Context ......Page 246 Economic Structure and Growth2......Page 247 Main Drivers of Growth......Page 250 Economic Challenges and Prospects......Page 253 Demographic Trends and Prospects......Page 257 Urbanisation......Page 259 Ageing......Page 260 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 263 China’s Energy Sector......Page 264 Energy Administration and Policy......Page 270 Energy Policy Challenges and Uncertainties......Page 273 Security of Energy Supply......Page 274 Environmental Issues......Page 275 Energy Efficiency......Page 277 Market Reforms......Page 280 Access to Modern Energy......Page 283 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 285 Key Assumptions......Page 286 Primary Energy Demand......Page 288 Final Energy Consumption......Page 291 Industry......Page 293 Transport......Page 298 Residential......Page 306 Other Sectors......Page 311 Local Air Pollution ......Page 312 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions......Page 315 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 319 Oil Resources and Reserves......Page 320 Oil Production ......Page 322 Oil Refining......Page 325 Oil Trade......Page 327 China’s Oil Security Policies......Page 328 Gas Resources and Reserves......Page 330 Gas Production......Page 332 Gas Imports......Page 334 Coal Resources and Reserves......Page 336 Coal Production......Page 338 Coal Transport......Page 341 Coal Pricing......Page 342 Coal Trade......Page 344 Overview of the Power Sector......Page 345 Outlook......Page 346 Capacity Requirements......Page 351 Electricity Pricing......Page 352 Power Generation Economics......Page 354 Renewables......Page 356 Policy Framework......Page 358 Investment......Page 360 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 363 Background and Assumptions......Page 364 Energy Demand......Page 365 Implications for Energy Markets and Supply Security......Page 368 Environmental Implications......Page 370 Power Generation......Page 374 Industry......Page 376 Transport......Page 380 Residential......Page 382 Cost-Effectiveness of Policies......Page 386 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 391 Background and Assumptions......Page 392 Energy Demand......Page 393 Implications for Energy Markets and Supply Security......Page 397 Implications for Investment......Page 401 Local Air Pollution ......Page 402 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions......Page 403 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 405 Background and Assumptions......Page 406 Primary Energy Demand......Page 409 Energy Demand by Sector......Page 413 Power Generation......Page 414 Energy Supply......Page 418 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions......Page 420 APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COASTAL REFERENCE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS......Page 422 WEO2007_part3_unsecured......Page 425 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 427 The Political Context......Page 428 Economic Growth and Structure......Page 429 Drivers of Growth......Page 433 Economic Challenges......Page 436 Demographic Trends......Page 442 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 445 India's Energy Sector......Page 446 Energy Administration and Policy......Page 452 Price and Subsidy Reform......Page 460 Energy Efficiency......Page 461 Infrastructure Investment......Page 462 Environment......Page 463 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 465 Key Assumptions......Page 466 Primary Energy Demand......Page 467 Final Energy Demand......Page 468 Industry Sector......Page 469 Iron and Steel Industry......Page 471 Chemicals and Petrochemicals......Page 472 Other Industries......Page 473 Transport Sector......Page 474 Road Transport......Page 475 Residential Sector......Page 478 Other Sectors......Page 485 Pollutant Emissions......Page 486 CO2 Emissions......Page 487 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 491 Resources and Reserves......Page 492 Oil Production ......Page 493 Oil Refining......Page 495 Oil Trade......Page 497 Resources and Reserves......Page 499 Production......Page 502 Gas Imports......Page 503 Resources and Reserves......Page 505 Coal Production......Page 506 Coal Imports......Page 511 Overview of the Power Sector......Page 512 Power Generation Mix......Page 513 Power Generation Economics......Page 519 Renewable Energy......Page 520 Investment......Page 522 Electricity......Page 523 Focus on Investment Challenges in India's Power Sector......Page 524 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 533 Background and Assumptions......Page 534 Energy Demand......Page 535 Implications for Energy Markets and Supply Security......Page 537 Environmental Implications......Page 538 Power Generation......Page 542 Industry......Page 547 Transport......Page 550 Residential and Services......Page 553 Cost-Effectiveness of Policies......Page 556 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 561 Background and Assumptions......Page 562 Energy Demand......Page 563 Coal......Page 567 Oil and Gas......Page 568 Implications for Investment......Page 570 Environmental Implications......Page 571 Implications for Access to Energy......Page 572 Implications for Policy......Page 573 HIGHLIGHTS......Page 575 Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and Electricity Access......Page 576 Measuring Energy Poverty......Page 578 Expanding Access to Electricity in India......Page 582 Health and Energy Poverty......Page 583 Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and the Poor......Page 586 Energy Demand in Slums......Page 587 ANNEXES ......Page 591 ANNEX A - TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO PROJECTIONS......Page 593 ANNEX B - ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS AND CONVERSION FACTORS......Page 635 ANNEX C - ACRONYMS......Page 645 ANNEX D - REFERENCES......Page 649