When Left Moves Right : The Decline of the Left and the Rise of the Populist Right in Postcommunist Europe

Over the past two decades, postcommunist countries have witnessed a sudden shift in the electoral fortunes of their political parties: previously successful center-left parties suffered dramatic electoral defeats and disappeared from the political scene, while right-wing populist parties soared in popularity and came to power. This dynamic echoed similar processes in Western Europe and raises a question: Were these dynamics in any way connected? When Right Moves Left argues that they were. And that the root of the connection between them lies in the pro-market rebranding of the ex-communist left--the key explanatory variable. This book asserts that, though the left's pro-market shift initially led to electoral rewards, it had a less straightforward impact on left-wing parties' electoral fortunes in the long run. Traditional supporters of the left (working-class and economically vulnerable groups) were alienated by the new economic policies, and the middle-class voters newly drawn to these parties did not compensate for those losses. As a result, for several electoral rounds following the rebranding, reformist parties on the left suffered dramatic electoral defeats. In response, right-wing parties in their respective countries adopted more redistributive economic platforms consistent with preferences of former supporters of the left, and incorporated sizeable shares of these electorates. This contributed to the growth of right-wing populist parties in the countries with a pro-market left. The book traces this process in postcommunist Europe on different levels of analysis: cross-country observational data, case studies, and individual-level experimental surveys. It argues that scholars should incorporate the economic policy dimension when explaining the demise of the left and the rise of the populist right in the region. It also examines important parallels between the dynamics of Western and postcommunist countries by arguing that the idiosyncrasy of Eastern European politics has been overstated in scholarly literature. Cover When Left Moves Right Copyright Contents What Happens when Left Moves Right The Puzzle The Unintended Consequences Linking Supply and Demand Terms and Definitions The Broader Trends Eastern European Distinctiveness Learning from Western Europe Bringing Class Back Economy vs. Culture The Structure of the Book Why Postcommunist Europe? Plan of the Book 1. How the Left Moved Right Is There a Third Way? Britain Germany Sweden The Eastern European Story International Pressure Domestic Pressure EU Conditionality: The Road to Hell Is Paved with Good Intentions The Post-​Accession Backlash The 2008 Crisis: The Irony of Fate The Right Moves Left The “New Winning Formula” Capturing the Working Class Summary 2. The Class Politics in Postcommunist Europe The Working Class after Communism Preferences of Working-​Class Electorates Linking Classes and Parties in Postcommunist Europe Summary 3. How the Postcommunist Left Reformed and Lost The Pro-​Market Left and Class-​Based Support Left vs. Right Summary 4. When Left Moves Right, Right Wins Hungary The Realignment Begins The Collapse of the Left The Adaptation of the Right Individual-​Level Surveys Poland The Realignment Begins The Collapse of the Left The Adaptation of the Right Individual-​Level Surveys Summary 5. When Left Stays Left, Right Stays Small Czech Republic Stability of Alignments Individual-​Level Surveys Slovakia Stability of Alignments Individual-​Level Surveys Summary 6. Decisions on the Ground: The Experimental Case for a Left-​Right Shift Survey Experiment 1 Design Results Survey Experiment 2 Results Summary Conclusion Eastern Europe Is Not Unique . . . . . . But It Is Special The Importance of Party Choices When Right Is Left Winning Back the Working Class? Appendix I: Factor Analysis for Chapter 2 Appendix II: Cross-​Country Analysis: Left Vote vs. Other Parties—​Probit Model (Basic) Appendix III: Cross-​Country Analysis: Left Vote vs. Other Parties—​Probit Model (Controlling for Religiosity and Immigration) Appendix IV: Cross-​Country Analysis: Left Vote vs. Other Parties—​Probit Model (Controlling for Presence of a Radical Right Party) Appendix V: Cross-​Country Analysis: Left Vote vs. Other Parties—​Multilevel Model Appendix VI: Cross-​Country Analysis: Right vs. Left Vote—​Probit Model Appendix VII: Cross-​Country Analysis: Right vs. Left Vote—​Multilevel Model Appendix VIII: Survey Experiment 1: Descriptive Statistics Appendix IX: Survey Experiment 1: Propensity of Voting for Jobbik Appendix X: Survey Experiment 2: Descriptive Statistics Appendix XI: Survey Experiment 2: Propensity of Voting for Jobbik Appendix XII: Elite Interviews References Index What Happens when Left Moves Right The Puzzle The Unintended Consequences Linking Supply and Demand Terms and Definitions The Broader Trends Eastern European Distinctiveness Learning from Western Europe Bringing Class Back Economy vs. Culture The Structure of the Book Why Postcommunist Europe? Plan of the Book How the Left Moved Right Is There a Third Way? Britain Germany Sweden The Eastern European Story International Pressure Domestic Pressure EU Conditionality: The Road to Hell Is Paved with Good Intentions The Post-Accession Backlash The 2008 Crisis: The Irony of Fate The Right Moves Left The “New Winning Formula” Capturing the Working Class Summary The Class Politics in Postcommunist Europe The Working Class after Communism Preferences of Working-Class Electorates Linking Classes and Parties in Postcommunist Europe Summary How the Postcommunist Left Reformed and Lost The Pro-Market Left and Class-Based Support Left vs. Right Summary When Left Moves Right, Right Wins Hungary The Realignment Begins The Collapse of the Left The Adaptation of the Right Individual-Level Surveys Poland The Realignment Begins The Collapse of the Left The Adaptation of the Right Individual-Level Surveys Summary When Left Stays Left, Right Stays Small Czech Republic Stability of Alignments Individual-Level Surveys Slovakia Stability of Alignments Individual-Level Surveys Summary Decisions on the Ground: The Experimental Case for a Left-Right Shift Survey Experiment 1 Design Results Survey Experiment 2 Design Results Summary Conclusion Eastern Europe Is Not Unique... ... But It Is Special The Importance of Party Choices When Right Is Left Winning Back the Working Class? Appendix Appendix I: Factor Analysis for Chapter 2 Appendix II: Cross-Country Analysis: Left Vote vs. Other Parties—Probit Medel (Basic) Appendix III: Cross-Country Analysis: Left Vote vs. Other Parties—Probit Model (Controlling for Religiosity and Immigration) Appendix IV: Cross-Country Analysis: Left Vote vs. Other Parties—Probit Model (Controlling for Presence of a Radical Right Party) Appendix V: Cross-Country Analysis: Left Vote vs. Other Parties—Multilevel Model Appendix VI: Cross-Country Analysis: Right vs. Left Vote—Probit Model Appendix VII: Cross-Country Analysis: Right vs. Left Vote— Multilevel Model Appendix VIII: Survey Experiment 1: Descriptive Statistics Appendix IX: Survey Experiment 1: Propensity of Voting for Jobbik Appendix X: Survey Experiment 2: Descriptive Statistics Appendix XI: Survey Experiment 2: Propensity of Voting for Jobbik Appendix XII: Elite Interviews References Index