Western intelligence and the collapse of the Soviet Union : 1980-1990 : ten years that did not shake the world

In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. It was an event of major historic and global dimensions, yet it took the entire world totally by suprise. In this book, the authors interview dozens of people who dealt with Soviet affairs in the 1980s, all of who admit to having been caught off guard. Book Cover......Page 1 Half-Title......Page 2 Title......Page 3 Copyright......Page 4 Contents......Page 5 Preface......Page 6 Acknowledgments......Page 9 Introduction......Page 10 THE IMPACT OF THE NUCLEAR FEAR ON INTELLIGENCE......Page 14 NUCLEAR POWER IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR......Page 20 THE NUCLEAR RACE BEGINS: THE WAR IN KOREA......Page 25 CUBA......Page 30 VIETNAM......Page 35 THE BIOLOGICAL-CHEMICAL ARMS RACE AND OTHER FORMS OF INSANITY......Page 41 EUROPE, NATO AND THE MIDDLE EAST: THE DANGER OF NUCLEAR CONFLAGRATION?......Page 45 JILIN PHENOMENON AS A SYMPTOM OF AN INSANE WORLD......Page 49 AFGHANISTAN 1: THE TURNING POINT......Page 54 THE RED ARMY’S CONVENTIONAL OPERATIONAL ABILITY......Page 61 EUROPE: THE WESTERN THREAT, AS REFLECTED IN WARSAW PACT FILES......Page 68 CAN A NUCLEAR WAR BE WON?......Page 70 CASEY AND THE DEFINITION OF INTERNATIONAL TERROR......Page 72 INTERNATIONAL TERROR AS DEFINED BY LEONOV AND THE KGB......Page 77 THE THIRD WORLD: WHAT THE STRUGGLE WAS ABOUT......Page 88 THE MIDDLE EAST: ISRAEL, EGYPT, SYRIA AND LEBANON......Page 90 ROLLING THEM BACK......Page 93 TO GET THEM OUT OF AFGHANISTAN......Page 95 IRAN......Page 101 GRENADA......Page 103 EL SALVADOR......Page 106 CUBA......Page 108 AFRICA......Page 112 ANGOLA......Page 113 THE HORN OF AFRICA......Page 115 THE THIRD WORLD: A SUMMARY......Page 118 AMERICAN STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE......Page 125 FRANCE......Page 132 THE UNITED KINGDOM......Page 138 GERMANY......Page 142 ITALY......Page 144 THE WAR OF THE HOLY SEES......Page 146 HARPING ON THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT......Page 149 POLITICIANS, INTELLIGENCE, MEDIA AND ELECTED OFFICIALS......Page 151 DETENTE......Page 154 REAGAN’S ADMINISTRATION GETS ORGANIZED......Page 157 CASEY AND THE CIA......Page 159 CASEY VERSUS THE USSR......Page 161 THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX; OR THE DRAGON, THE STEALTH BOMBER AND THE F-22......Page 165 STAR WARS......Page 171 I WAS SURPRISED......Page 182 SURPRISE IN EUROPE TOO......Page 184 THE SIGNS OF CRISIS DURING GORBACHEV’S TENURE......Page 187 INTERNAL WEAKNESS AND FOREIGN POLICY......Page 189 THE LIBERATION OF EASTERN EUROPE......Page 192 THE NATIONALITY PROBLEM IN THE USSR......Page 195 THE MILITARY THREAT AND THE RED ARMY’S PERFORMANCE......Page 198 THE SOVIET UNION: A THIRD WORLD ECONOMY?......Page 203 THE COLLAPSE......Page 206 FEAR, BRUTALITY, TRAUMA......Page 212 INFORMATION GATHERING FAILURE, ASSESSMENT FAILURE—OR BOTH?......Page 217 AFGHANISTAN 2: THE THIN LINE BETWEEN DATA ASSESSMENT AND INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS......Page 219 THE “CONCEPTION”......Page 221 NATIONAL EVALUATION: NEITHER NATIONAL NOR EVALUATION......Page 224 THE CIA’S FAILURE......Page 229 OVERESTIMATION OF SOVIET ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE......Page 233 THE ABORTIVE COUP AGAINST GORBACHEV......Page 236 EXAGGERATION OF MILITARY POWER—THE SOVIET THREAT......Page 238 WHAT ABOUT THE BASICS?......Page 243 GORBACHEV’S FUTURE AND THAT OF THE SOVIET UNION......Page 245 WAS THERE AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE?......Page 246 OTHER WESTERN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES......Page 249 THE NATIONAL INTELIGENCE ESTIMATE (NIE)......Page 252 THE PRESIDENTIAL PAPER......Page 255 OTHER PAPERS......Page 257 THE ATTITUDE TOWARD INTELLIGENCE AND ITS PRODUCTS......Page 258 THE KREMLIN DID NOT BELIEVE IN INTELLIGENCE EITHER......Page 259 POLITICIZATION OF INTELLIGENCE......Page 263 INTELLIGENCE AND POLITICS......Page 268 WHAT DID THEY THINK IN EUROPE?......Page 273 THE STRUGGLE INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION OVER SOVIET INTENTIONS......Page 275 REAGAN’S CHANGE OF HEART......Page 280 GEORGE BUSH IN MOSCOW AND IN THE WHITE HOUSE......Page 282 INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES......Page 286 AFTER THE COLLAPSE: DEVALUATION OF THE STATUS OF STRATEGIC POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE?......Page 291 INTELLIGENCE FAILURE? THE CIA HAS NEVER HEARD OF IT......Page 292 INTELLIGENCE IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION......Page 294 THE NEW TERROR......Page 297 INTELLIGENCE AFTER 11 SEPTEMBER......Page 311 Appendix A GLOSSARY......Page 314 Appendix B LIST OF INTERVIEWEES......Page 317 BOOKS......Page 320 ARTICLES......Page 322 LECTURES......Page 323 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY—DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE......Page 324 US CONGRESS......Page 325 DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE......Page 326 Index......Page 327 In the second half of 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. It was an event of major historic and global dimensions, yet this strategic transformation of international relations took the entire world totally by suprise - despite the fact that the West saw in the Communist power an ideological foe and a major military threat.
During the 1980s Western intelligence services spent about $40 billion every year, most of it to monitor the Soviet Union and its satellites. Yet all of them, without exception, were taken by surprise when the red empire crumbled. The American CIA, Britain's MI-6, Germany's BND and the French DGSE all failed to comprehend that the Soviet Union was approaching the end of its imperial existence. A handful of honest intelligence professionals who identified the signs of weakness and distress were shunted aside.
The authors of this book interviewed dozens of people who dealt with Soviet affairs in the 1980s, most of them in the United States, some in Europe, the Soviet Union and Israel. The interviewees included high ranking government officials, academics and journalists, but mostly intelligence personnel. All admitted having been caught off guard, but differed over the reasons for their surprise, and who was responsible for it. "When the worst terrorist atrocity in American history occurred on September 11, 2001, the intelligence agencies of the United States and most of the western world were taken by surprise. Ten years earlier, in 1991, those same organizations were surprised when the Soviet Empire collapsed. In both cases the intelligence establishment has invested enormous resources, compiled information, wrote detailed analytical papers and yet failed to provide an early warming of the impending Soviet collapse as well as the coming terrorist attack." "This book sets out to explain why western intelligence agencies failed to diagnose the Soviet Union's terminal condition, despite the many obvious symptoms, and worse, why they failed to convey what they did know to the political echelon."--Jacket. In this book, the authors interview dozens of people who dealt with Soviet affairs in the 1980s, all of who admit to having been caught off guard by the USSR's sudden collapse