Western Balkan Economies in Transition: Recent Economic and Social Developments (Societies and Political Orders in Transition)

This book explores the economic and social development of the Western Balkan region, a group of six countries that are potential candidates for EU membership. It focuses on the key economic issues facing these countries, including the challenge of promoting economic growth, limiting public deficits and debt, and fostering international trade relations. Given the severe impact of the recent economic crisis on social welfare in the region, it also investigates the nature and extent of social exclusion, a factor likely to produce future political instabilities if not effectively addressed by a return to sustainable economic growth. The contributions explore these issues in light of the major influence of EU policy instruments and advice, which are currently guiding the economies along an accession trajectory to future EU membership.-- Provided by publisher Preface 6 Contents 8 List of Figures 10 List of Tables 12 The Western Balkans on the Road to the EU: An Introduction 14 Introduction 14 The Path to the EU 16 Stabilisation and Association Agreements 16 Economic Transition and Growth 18 Demand-Side Versus Supply-Side Policies 20 The Chapters in This Book 22 References 25 The Western Balkans Regional Economic Area: From Economic Cooperation to Economic Integration 27 Introduction 27 Overview of the Plan 29 The Four Pillars: An Assessment 30 Trade 32 Investment 34 Mobility 36 Digital Integration 37 Conclusion 38 References 39 Trade in Services in the Western Balkan Countries 40 Introduction 40 Liberalisation of Trade in Services 41 European Union Accession 42 World Trade Organization Accession 43 CEFTA 47 Trade in Services: Evidence from the Data 48 Domestic Economy 48 Trade Data 50 Travel 53 Transport 53 Other Business Services 55 Conclusions 56 References 57 Higher Education and the Graduate Labour Market in the Western Balkans 58 Introduction 58 The Provision of Higher Education 59 Transition from Higher Education to the Labour Market 62 Graduate Skill Gaps 64 Skill Mismatch 67 Conclusions: Reforms of HE Systems Are Badly Needed 68 References 69 The Labour Market, Social Inequality and the Role of Emigration: The Case of the Western Balkan Economies 71 Introduction 71 Transition as a Necessity 72 Unemployment: A Problem that Must Be Managed 75 Income Inequality in Western Balkan Countries 77 Migration Trends 79 Conclusion 80 References 82 On the Way to Europe: Economic and Social Developments in Albania 83 Introduction 83 Governance and the Quality of Institutions 85 Foreign Trade 87 Competitiveness 89 The Labour Market 91 Poverty 93 Inequality 94 Conclusions 95 References 96 Public and Private Debt: Recent Developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina 98 Introduction 98 Public Debt 99 Brief Methodology of Sovereign Debt Analysis 99 Private Sector Debt 101 The Nonfinancial Sector 103 Households 104 Conclusion 105 References 106 Trade and Industrial Development in Kosovo 107 Introduction 107 The Economy and Trade 108 Trade-Related Constraints and Policy Measures 111 Policy Measures to Enhance Industrial Development 117 Privatisation in Kosovo 122 The Methods 124 The Current State of Affairs 125 The Performance 125 Conclusion 127 References 128 Social Policy During a Decade of Centre-Right Governance in Macedonia 130 Introduction 130 Socio-economic and Political Context of Social Policy Creation in the Last Decade 131 Family Benefits Through the Conservative Lens 133 Reforms Related to Active Labour Market Programmes 135 Adequacy of Social Benefits: Social Financial Assistance and Pensions 138 Discussion 139 References 140 The Global Financial Crisis and Fiscal Policy in Montenegro 142 Introduction 142 Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Reforms on the Eve of the Global Financial Crisis 143 The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Fiscal Performance 145 The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Public Debt 149 Concluding Remarks 150 References 151 Economic Reforms in Serbia and Prospects for Economic Recovery and Growth 153 Introduction 153 The Economic Reform Programme 155 The Government Sector and Fiscal Consolidation 156 The Financial Sector and Financialisation 157 Structural Reforms 159 The External Sector and the Balance of Payments 161 Capital Account and Foreign Investment 163 External Debt 165 Conclusions: Prospects for the Success of the Economic Reform Programme 166 References 167 Conclusions: Achieving Sustainable Growth Through Outward Looking Policies and Regional Integration 170 Introduction 170 The Debt Crisis 171 International Trade 173 Social Policies 173 Conclusion 174 References 176 Front Matter ....Pages i-xii The Western Balkans on the Road to the EU: An Introduction (Reiner Osbild, Will Bartlett)....Pages 1-13 The Western Balkans Regional Economic Area: From Economic Cooperation to Economic Integration (Peter Sanfey, Jakov Milatović)....Pages 15-27 Trade in Services in the Western Balkan Countries (Ivana Prica)....Pages 29-46 Higher Education and the Graduate Labour Market in the Western Balkans (Will Bartlett, Milica Uvalić)....Pages 47-59 The Labour Market, Social Inequality and the Role of Emigration: The Case of the Western Balkan Economies (Mehmed Ganić)....Pages 61-72 On the Way to Europe: Economic and Social Developments in Albania (Engjëll Pere, Will Bartlett)....Pages 73-87 Public and Private Debt: Recent Developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Jelena Poljašević, Jelena Trivić)....Pages 89-97 Trade and Industrial Development in Kosovo (Petrit Gashi)....Pages 99-121 Social Policy During a Decade of Centre-Right Governance in Macedonia (Maja Gerovska Mitev)....Pages 123-134 The Global Financial Crisis and Fiscal Policy in Montenegro (Nikola Fabris)....Pages 135-145 Economic Reforms in Serbia and Prospects for Economic Recovery and Growth (Will Bartlett)....Pages 147-163 Conclusions: Achieving Sustainable Growth Through Outward Looking Policies and Regional Integration (Will Bartlett, Reiner Osbild)....Pages 165-171