Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (Basic Books; 1999)

Niall Ferguson has written several fine books that are must-reads for educated people. These include 'The Pity of War' (on WWI), 'The War of the World' (about the major conflicts in the 20th century including a stunning chapter on the 'armed slave labor camp' that was the Soviet Union), and this book -- Virtual History' on counterfactual or "what if" history. Some amazon reviewers have obviously completely misunderstood this book - it is designed to explore some counterfactual questions, but primarily it is intended to explain and defend the value of counterfactual history. Feguson makes perhaps the finest explanation and defense of counterfactual reasoning. This will obviously not make some people happy, as they would rather hear creative historical what ifs, ala Hollywood. But for historians and other social scientists who need to use counterfactual reasoning, this book is an outstanding resource. By all means read this book, and the other fine works of Niall Ferguson - one of the outstanding comparative historians of our day (or any day). Cover......Page 1 Title page......Page 5 Copyright page......Page 6 Contents......Page 7 Contributors......Page 9 Acknowledgements......Page 12 Introduction – Virtual History: Towards a 'chaotic' theory of the past – Niall Ferguson [1]......Page 13 Divine Intervention and Predestination......Page 32 Scientific Determinism: Materialism and Idealism......Page 38 Contingency, Chance and the Revolt against Causation......Page 56 Scientific History – Continued......Page 64 Narrative Determinism: Why Not Invent History?......Page 76 The Garden of Forking Paths......Page 80 Chaos and the End of Scientific Determinism......Page 83 Towards Chaostory......Page 91 1 England Without Cromwell: What if Charles I had avoided the Civil War? – John Adamson [91]......Page 103 Scotland in 1639: A Victory Forgone......Page 107 The Fortunes of Puritanism: Senescence and Decline?......Page 113 The Remaking of the English Judiciary......Page 121 Stuart Britain: The Refashioning of the State......Page 125 The Inevitability of Anglo-American History......Page 137 Stuart Alternatives: An Empire of Many Parliaments – or None?......Page 139 Two Types of Tragedy? 1688 and 1776......Page 146 'External Causes' and the Inadequacy of Teleology......Page 152 The Strategic Counterfactuals......Page 156 Domestic Counterfactuals: Colonial Union, Taxation and Democracy......Page 162 The Problems of Repression in a Libertarian Polity......Page 171 Manifest Destinies? The Denial of American Counterfactuals......Page 177 The Marginalised, the Expropriated and the Oppressed......Page 180 The Long Shadow of the Transatlantic Counterfactual......Page 183 3 British Ireland: What if Home Rule had been enacted in 1912? – Alvin Jackson [175]......Page 187 The History of an Idea......Page 188 The Prospects for a Settlement......Page 197 Interpreting the Third Home Rule Bill......Page 207 Ireland under Home Rule......Page 224 Arcadia?......Page 237 4 The Kaiser's European Union: What if Britain had 'stood aside' in August 1914? – Niall Ferguson [228]......Page 240 An Older Counterfactual: Anglo-German Entente......Page 249 Britain's War of Illusions......Page 255 Germany's Bid for European Union......Page 268 The Continental Non-Commitment......Page 273 The War against the Tories......Page 282 A War without the BEF......Page 288 5 Hitler's England: What if Germany had invaded Britain in May 1940? – Andrew Roberts and Niall Ferguson [281]......Page 293 An Older Counterfactual: Non-Appeasement......Page 295 Peaceful Coexistence: The Charmley Counterfactual......Page 303 A Still Worse Scenario: The Invasion of Britain......Page 308 The Collaboration Counterfactual......Page 314 Never Surrender?......Page 331 6 Nazi Europe: What if Nazi Germany had defeated the Soviet Union? – Michael Burleigh [321]......Page 333 Rosenberg's Counterfactual......Page 339 Hitler's Vision......Page 341 Himmler's Counterfactual......Page 344 And Tomorrow, the World?......Page 351 7 Stalin's War Or Peace: What if the Cold War had been avoided? – Jonathan Haslam [348]......Page 360 What if the United States had not had the Atomic Bomb?......Page 364 What if Western Intelligence had not been Penetrated?......Page 368 What if Stalin had accepted the Western definition of 'Influence'?......Page 373 8 Camelot Continued: What if John F. Kennedy had lived? – Diane Kunz [368]......Page 380 The Origins of a Myth......Page 382 The Second Emancipation......Page 384 America's Longest War......Page 389 What if Kennedy had Lived?......Page 399 9 1989 Without Gorbachev: What if Communism had not collapsed? – Mark Almond [392]......Page 404 The End of Ideology – and of the Ideologists......Page 409 The Politics of Economic Crisis......Page 412 How would the West have reacted to a Crackdown?......Page 418 The Final Oil Shock......Page 424 Afterword: A Virtual History, 1646–1996 – Niall Ferguson [416]......Page 428 Introduction – Virtual History: Towards a 'chaotic' theory of the past – Niall Ferguson......Page 453 1 England Without Cromwell: What if Charles I had avoided the Civil War? – John Adamson......Page 467 2 British America: What if there had been no American Revolution? – J. C. D. Clark......Page 482 3 British Ireland: What if Home Rule had been enacted in 1912? – Alvin Jackson......Page 492 4 The Kaiser's European Union: What if Britain had 'stood aside' in August 1914? – Niall Ferguson......Page 500 5 Hitler's England: What if Germany had invaded Britain in May 1940? – Andrew Roberts and Niall Ferguson......Page 522 6 Nazi Europe: What if Nazi Germany had defeated the Soviet Union? – Michael Burleigh......Page 526 7 Stalin's War Or Peace: What if the Cold War had been avoided? – Jonathan Haslam......Page 531 8 Camelot Continued: What if John F. Kennedy had lived? – Diane Kunz......Page 534 9 1989 Without Gorbachev: What if Communism had not collapsed? – Mark Almond......Page 537 A......Page 543 B......Page 544 C......Page 545 D......Page 547 F......Page 548 G......Page 549 H......Page 550 I......Page 551 L......Page 552 M......Page 553 P......Page 555 R......Page 556 S......Page 557 W......Page 559 Z......Page 560 History Cover 1 Title page 5 Copyright page 6 Contents 7 Contributors 9 Acknowledgements 12 Introduction – Virtual History: Towards a 'chaotic' theory of the past – Niall Ferguson [1] 13 Divine Intervention and Predestination 32 Scientific Determinism: Materialism and Idealism 38 Contingency, Chance and the Revolt against Causation 56 Scientific History – Continued 64 Narrative Determinism: Why Not Invent History? 76 The Garden of Forking Paths 80 Chaos and the End of Scientific Determinism 83 Towards Chaostory 91 1 England Without Cromwell: What if Charles I had avoided the Civil War? – John Adamson [91] 103 Scotland in 1639: A Victory Forgone 107 The Fortunes of Puritanism: Senescence and Decline? 113 The Remaking of the English Judiciary 121 Stuart Britain: The Refashioning of the State 125 2 British America: What if there had been no American Revolution? – J. C. D. Clark [125] 137 The Inevitability of Anglo-American History 137 Stuart Alternatives: An Empire of Many Parliaments – or None? 139 Two Types of Tragedy? 1688 and 1776 146 'External Causes' and the Inadequacy of Teleology 152 The Strategic Counterfactuals 156 Domestic Counterfactuals: Colonial Union, Taxation and Democracy 162 The Problems of Repression in a Libertarian Polity 171 Manifest Destinies? The Denial of American Counterfactuals 177 The Marginalised, the Expropriated and the Oppressed 180 The Long Shadow of the Transatlantic Counterfactual 183 3 British Ireland: What if Home Rule had been enacted in 1912? – Alvin Jackson [175] 187 The History of an Idea 188 The Prospects for a Settlement 197 Interpreting the Third Home Rule Bill 207 Ireland under Home Rule 224 Arcadia? 237 4 The Kaiser's European Union: What if Britain had 'stood aside' in August 1914? – Niall Ferguson [228] 240 An Older Counterfactual: Anglo-German Entente 249 Britain's War of Illusions 255 Germany's Bid for European Union 268 The Continental Non-Commitment 273 The War against the Tories 282 A War without the BEF 288 5 Hitler's England: What if Germany had invaded Britain in May 1940? – Andrew Roberts and Niall Ferguson [281] 293 An Older Counterfactual: Non-Appeasement 295 Peaceful Coexistence: The Charmley Counterfactual 303 A Still Worse Scenario: The Invasion of Britain 308 The Collaboration Counterfactual 314 Never Surrender? 331 6 Nazi Europe: What if Nazi Germany had defeated the Soviet Union? – Michael Burleigh [321] 333 Rosenberg's Counterfactual 339 Hitler's Vision 341 Himmler's Counterfactual 344 And Tomorrow, the World? 351 7 Stalin's War Or Peace: What if the Cold War had been avoided? – Jonathan Haslam [348] 360 What if the United States had not had the Atomic Bomb? 364 What if Western Intelligence had not been Penetrated? 368 What if Stalin had accepted the Western definition of 'Influence'? 373 8 Camelot Continued: What if John F. Kennedy had lived? – Diane Kunz [368] 380 The Origins of a Myth 382 The Second Emancipation 384 America's Longest War 389 What if Kennedy had Lived? 399 9 1989 Without Gorbachev: What if Communism had not collapsed? – Mark Almond [392] 404 The End of Ideology – and of the Ideologists 409 The Politics of Economic Crisis 412 How would the West have reacted to a Crackdown? 418 The Final Oil Shock 424 Afterword: A Virtual History, 1646–1996 – Niall Ferguson [416] 428 Notes [441] 453 Introduction – Virtual History: Towards a 'chaotic' theory of the past – Niall Ferguson 453 1 England Without Cromwell: What if Charles I had avoided the Civil War? – John Adamson 467 2 British America: What if there had been no American Revolution? – J. C. D. Clark 482 3 British Ireland: What if Home Rule had been enacted in 1912? – Alvin Jackson 492 4 The Kaiser's European Union: What if Britain had 'stood aside' in August 1914? – Niall Ferguson 500 5 Hitler's England: What if Germany had invaded Britain in May 1940? – Andrew Roberts and Niall Ferguson 522 6 Nazi Europe: What if Nazi Germany had defeated the Soviet Union? – Michael Burleigh 526 7 Stalin's War Or Peace: What if the Cold War had been avoided? – Jonathan Haslam 531 8 Camelot Continued: What if John F. Kennedy had lived? – Diane Kunz 534 9 1989 Without Gorbachev: What if Communism had not collapsed? – Mark Almond 537 Index [531] 543 A 543 B 544 C 545 D 547 E 548 F 548 G 549 H 550 I 551 J 552 K 552 L 552 M 553 N 555 O 555 P 555 Q 556 R 556 S 557 T 559 U 559 V 559 W 559 Y 560 Z 560 history;,counterfactual,history;,world,politics;,philosophy history,counterfactual history,world politics,philosophy "What if there had been no American War of Independence? What if Hitler had invaded Britain? What if Kennedy had lived? What if Russia had won the Cold War? Niall Ferguson, author of the highly acclaimed The Pity of War, leads the charge in this historically rigorous series of separate voyages into 'imaginary time' and provides far-reaching answers to these intriguing questions. Ferguson's brilliant 90-page introduction doubles as a manifesto on the methodology of counter-factual history. His equally masterful afterword traces the likely historical ripples that would have proceeded from the maintenance of Stuart rule in England. This breathtaking narrative gives us a convincing, detailed 'alternative history' of the West -- from the accession of 'James III' in 1701, to a Nazi-occupied England, to a U.S. Prime Minister Kennedy who lives to complete his term."--Publisher description

What if there had been no American War of Independence? What if Hitler had invaded Britain? What if Kennedy had lived? What if Russia had won the Cold War? Niall Ferguson, author of the highly acclaimed The Pity of War, leads the charge in this historically rigorous series of separate voyages into “imaginary time” and provides far-reaching answers to these intriguing questions.Ferguson’s brilliant 90-page introduction doubles as a manifesto on the methodology of counter-factual history. His equally masterful afterword traces the likely historical ripples that would have proceeded from the maintenance of Stuart rule in England. This breathtaking narrative gives us a convincing, detailed “alternative history” of the West—from the accession of “James III” in 1701, to a Nazi-occupied England, to a U.S. Prime Minister Kennedy who lives to complete his term.

A provocative look at history speculates what may have happened if nine major events did not occur, asking such questions as, "What if there had been no American Revoultion?" and "What if John F. Kennedy had lived?" Reprint. 20,000 first printing. Between 1638 and 1640, when not distracted by fiscal crises and Scottish wars, Charles I turned his attention to a more congenial task: the plans for a new royal palace at Whitehall.