Using scenarios : scenario planning for improving organizations

A top scenario planning expert clarifies how scenarios can be used to help organizations make their toughest decisions in a world of ever-escalating crisis and opportunity. The first text on scenario planning to detail different ways of using scenarios in business decision-making. Written by a top expert on scenario planning, it covers the possible uses of scenarios, their intended outcomes & benefits and exactly how organizations can facilitate scenarios as a change management process. It offers detailed guidance on how to apply and use scenarios in a practical way. The processes, exercises and workshops described have been used effectively in organizations across industries and countries for over 10 years. The application potential for scenarios is nearly endless: corporate strategy planning, annual business planning, environmental planning, ecosystem planning, climate change, pandemic response, and more. This provocative book explains how to move beyond mere scenario creation, and connect ideas to action. Cover 1 Half Title 2 Title 4 Copyright 5 Dedication 6 Contents 8 List of Figures 10 Preface 14 PART ONE. Exploring the Use of Scenarios 18 1. What Do You Do with Scenarios? 20 2. Problems with the Practice of Strategic Planning and Scenario Planning 24 3. Methods for Building Scenarios 48 PART TWO. Specific Ways to Use Scenarios 84 4. Seven Approaches to Using Scenarios 86 5. Connecting Scenarios to Their Original Purposes 93 6. Generating Strategies 103 7. Windtunneling Strategies with Scenarios 120 8. Testing Decisions and Options with Scenarios 131 9. Assessing the Financial Benefits of Scenarios 150 10. Modeling Financials with Scenarios 163 11. Developing Scenario Signals and Critical Uncer tainty Dashboards 176 PART THREE. Improving Organizations with Scenarios 190 12. Making Scenarios a Part of Organizational Culture 192 13. Advancing Scenario and Strategic Planning 201 Conclusion 206 Afterword 208 Appendix 214 References 224 Acknowledgments 233 Index 235 A 235 B 235 C 235 D 235 E 236 F 236 G 236 H 236 I 236 J 236 K 236 L 236 M 236 N 236 O 236 P 237 R 237 S 237 T 238 V 238 W 238 About the Author 239 This is the first book to offer detailed guidance on how scenarios can be used to help organizations make their toughest decisions in a world of ever-escalating crisis and opportunity. To reap the full benefits of scenarios, you have to be able to apply them in the real world. This groundbreaking book goes beyond the theoretical to clearly explain different ways scenarios can be used in business decision-making—from strategic planning and financial modeling to crisis response. Connecting scenarios to strategy and action can have many benefits, including the ability to react quickly, anticipate major changes in the environment, and identify major opportunities. Thomas Chermack, a top expert on scenario planning, offers seven specific ways organizations can use scenarios and provides a wide variety of examples, along with proven processes, exercises, and workshops that have been used successfully in organizations across industries and countries for more than fifteen years. "To reap the full benefits of scenarios, you have to be able to apply them in the real world. This groundbreaking book goes beyond the theoretical to clearly explain different ways scenarios can be used in business decision-making-from strategic planning and financial modeling to crisis response. Connecting scenarios to strategy and action can have many benefits, including the abilities to react quickly, anticipate major changes in the environment, and identify major opportunities. Thomas Chermack, a top expert on scenario planning, offers seven specific ways organizations can use scenarios, and provides a wide variety of examples, along with proven processes, exercises, and workshops that have been used successfully in organizations across industries and countries for more than fifteen years"-- Provided by publisher