US hegemony : global ambitions and decline : emergence of the interregional Asian triangle and the relegation of the US as a hegemonic power, the reorientation of Europe

With the end of the 'East-West' conflict in 1990, an entirely new constellation seemed to emerge for the first time in the history of mankind. This was perceived by the power elite in the USA as a useful challenge to lend its - until then territorially restricted - hegemony a global dimension. From the perspective of the US elites (Francis Fukuyama), a period of indefinite American control over the rest of the world, in which there would be no more scope for potential rivals to emerge, would characterize the end of history. But some years later, the USA had to accept that the dual hegemony it had built up together with the Soviet Union was fundamental to the continued existence of American hegemony. Its inability to sustain a global hegemony revealed itself in the severe setbacks it suffered in the three wars waged in Iraq, Afghanistan and against the so-called international terrorists. Undeterred by the USA's imminent isolation, influential US experts insisted that US policies were still in line with the US' general perception of its role in the world: firstly to work for the good of the world and, secondly, to exercise its military might even when the rest of the world opposed it. Ignored for a long time by these very experts were the emergence of the interregional Asian triangle (China, India, Russia), Europe's reorientation and, in consequence, the USA's relegation as a hegemonic power. Contents 1. Rapid change and new formation 11 2. A new theoretical approach 13 2.1. Introduction 13 2.2. The difference between empire and hegemony 13 2.3. A different theoretical approach: Beyond traditional thinking 14 2.3.1. An analysis of contradictory terms 14 2.3.2. The East-West conflict: an example of a power struggle in a dual hegemony 16 2.4. Essentials of a trilateral axis 17 2.4.1. The difference between geopolitical stability in a dual hegemony and a strategic partnership between two global players 17 2.4.2. The trilateral axis as a combination of strategic partnerships and normative consequences 18 2.4.3. The double structure of interplaying global powers, transnational corporations (TNCs) and financial capital 19 3. The rise of the USA as a hegemonic power 21 3.1. Forty years of an intra-Western triangle involving the USA, Japan and Western Europe and the East-West conflict as the basis of US hegemony 21 3.1.1. The intra-Western triangle of US-Western Europe-Japan 21 3.1.2. The East-West conflict as the second pillar of US hegemony 22 3.2. The emergence of the dual hegemony of the USA and the Soviet Union 24 4. Different patterns underlying the global interaction of powers 27 4.1. The USA: empire or hegemony? Two controversial views 27 4.1.1. The USA as an empire 27 4.1.2. The USA as a hegemonic power 27 4.1.3. The USA still a hegemonic power? 29 4.2. An American attempt to replicate the structure of the former ‘East-West’ conflict – the tethering of China 30 5. The development of a new global interaction of powers resulting from India’s emergence as a new global player 33 5.1. India’s helping hand to the United States 33 5.2. From non-alignment to an American-Indian strategic partnership 33 5.3. India’s ambitions 35 6. The India-China relationship 37 6.1. Conflict-ridden geopolitical stability or conflict-avoiding strategic partnership? 37 6.2. Some agreements called for between India and China 37 6.3. Implications of India’s “realpolitik” with regard to nuclear power, energy supply and its strategic partnership with the USA 38 7. India’s current course 41 7.1. The scenario of a new East-West conflict avoided 41 7.2. India’s triangle strategy (India, China, Russia) 43 7.2.1. India’s interregional Asia policy 43 7.2.2. Russia as a member of the Indo-Chinese strategic partnership 43 7.3. Agreements necessary for stabilizing the strategic partnerships between India, China and Russia 44 7.4. Outlook and expansion of the India-China-Russia axis 46 7.4.1. Outlook 46 8. Iran’s nuclear policy – A political ball game in US containment strategy? 49 9. Contradiction between India’s triangle strategy and the USA’s assertion of its hegemonic status 53 9.1. Some discord over the nuclear deal 53 9.2. The gas pipeline project 56 10. Europe’s options – factors to be considered by the EU in evolving a suitable approach to the Asian trilateral axis 61 10.1. Economic interests and geopolitical realities 61 10.2. Concrete steps in the interest of the various members of the EU 62 11. The isolation of the USA 67 11.1. A flawed perception 67 11.2. Financial crisis and massive indebtedness 67 11.2.1. A blow to the self-image of the US-Americans 67 11.2.2. Some indicators for identifying a crisis 68 11.2.2.1. More profit from financial investment than from the production of goods 68 11.2.2.2. Speculation in falling or rising exchange rates of currencies 69 11.2.2.3. Shareholder attitude and investment in land, houses, commodities and on the financial market 69 11.3. Some reasons for the US financial crisis 70 11.3.1. ‘Failure at a lot of levels’ 70 11.3.2. The overriding aim to globalize US hegemony 71 11.3.3. The fragile structure of the “global financial architecture” (Geoffrey Underhill) 71 11.3.4. Simply “New Modes of Behavior” or a veritable “New Deal”? 74 11.4. Plan B for maintaining US hegemony 75 11.4.1. “Plan A” – the historical run-up to the present financial crisis 76 11.5. “Plan B” – Useful results of a controlled breakdown 78 11.5.1. Crisis management measures for preventing the financial crisis from spinning out of control 78 11.5.2. The demand for the regulation of the financial markets 78 11.6. Regulation against the background of varying perceptions of the state 79 11.7. The state in the hegemonic realm of power 81 11.8. Conflict lines between the USA and hegemonic formations on the one hand and Continental Europe on the other 82 11.9. The competitive advantage that the US bailout is intended to achieve 8 7 12. Conclusions 89 12.1. The transience of empires and hegemonies 89 12.2. Reasons for the rise and fall of Pax Americana 89 12.2.1. The phenomenal rise of the USA 89 12.2.2. Hypertrophic hegemonial consciousness 90 12.2.3. Rising intra-societal tensions 91 12.2.4. Indications of US-hegemonc overreach 91 12.2.5. The financial crisis as a portent for the USA’s unavoidable adjustment to the multilateral structure 93 13. Afterword 95 13.1. The present situation of departure – Threat of inflation as the basic problem 95 13.2. US global strategy as the cause for the present financial crisis 96 13.3. Closure of the global financial casino as a crisis management strategy for the present financial and economic crisis 97 13.3.1. Measures for the short-term stabilization of the financial markets 97 13.3.2. The long-term reform of the economic and financial system 98 13.4. A historical perspective – Alternative strategies for overcoming global economic crises 100 13.4.1. The New Deal in the USA 101 13.4.2. Crisis management through arms build-up in Germany 102 13.5. Conclusions 102 14. Notes and Reference 103 15. Bibliography 109