Uncertainty management for robust industrial design in aeronautics : findings and best practice collected during UMRIDA, a collaborative research project (2013-2016), funded by the European Union

This book covers cutting-edge findings related to uncertainty quantification and optimization under uncertainties (i.e. robust and reliable optimization), with a special emphasis on aeronautics and turbomachinery, although not limited to these fields. It describes new methods for uncertainty quantification, such as non-intrusive polynomial chaos, collocation methods, perturbation methods, as well as adjoint based and multi-level Monte Carlo methods. It includes methods for characterization of most influential uncertainties, as well as formulations for robust and reliable design optimization. A distinctive element of the book is the unique collection of test cases with prescribed uncertainties, which are representative of the current engineering practice of the industrial consortium partners involved in UMRIDA, a level 1 collaborative project within the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). All developed methods are benchmarked against these industrial challenges. Moreover, the book includes a section dedicated to __Best Practice Guidelines__ for uncertainty quantification and robust design optimization, summarizing the findings obtained by the consortium members within the UMRIDA project. All in all, the book offers a authoritative guide to cutting-edge methodologies for uncertainty management in engineering design, covers a wide range of applications and discusses new ideas for future research and interdisciplinary collaborations. Front Matter ....Pages i-ix Front Matter ....Pages 1-1 Vision, Objectives and Research Activities (Charles Hirsch, Dirk Wunsch)....Pages 3-13 UMRIDA Test Case Database with Prescribed Uncertainties (Sönke Klostermann)....Pages 15-32 Front Matter ....Pages 33-33 Uncertainties in Compressor and Aircraft Design (Dirk Büche, Sönke Klostermann, G. Rogé, X. Loyatho)....Pages 35-51 Estimation of Model Error Using Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging with Maximum a Posterori-Estimates (Martin Schmelzer, Richard P. Dwight, Wouter Edeling, Paola Cinnella)....Pages 53-69 Uncertainties for Thermoacoustics: A First Analysis (A. Ndiaye, F. Nicoud)....Pages 71-88 Numerical Uncertainties Estimation and Mitigation by Mesh Adaptation (Frédéric Alauzet, Alain Dervieux, Loïc Frazza, Adrien Loseille)....Pages 89-107 General Introduction to Polynomial Chaos and Collocation Methods (Chris Lacor, Éric Savin)....Pages 109-122 Generalized Polynomial Chaos for Non-intrusive Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Fluid Dynamics (Vincent Couaillier, Éric Savin)....Pages 123-141 Non-intrusive Probabilistic Collocation Method for Operational, Geometrical, and Manufacturing Uncertainties in Engineering Practice (Dirk Wunsch, Rémy Nigro, Grégory Coussement, Charles Hirsch)....Pages 143-167 Non-intrusive Uncertainty Quantification by Combination of Reduced Basis Method and Regression-based Polynomial Chaos Expansion (Mehrdad Raisee, Dinesh Kumar, Chris Lacor)....Pages 169-184 Screening Analysis and Adaptive Sparse Collocation Method (Alberto Clarich, Rosario Russo)....Pages 185-201 General Introduction to Surrogate Model-Based Approaches to UQ (Daigo Maruyama, Stefan Görtz, Dishi Liu)....Pages 203-211 Comparing Surrogates for Estimating Aerodynamic Uncertainties of Airfoils (Daigo Maruyama, Dishi Liu, Stefan Görtz)....Pages 213-228 Ordinary Kriging Surrogates in Aerodynamics (Antoine Dumont, Jean-Luc Hantrais-Gervois, Pierre-Yves Passaggia, Jacques Peter, Itham Salah el Din, Éric Savin)....Pages 229-245 Surrogates for Combustion Instabilities in Annular Combustors (M. Bauerheim, A. Ndiaye, F. Nicoud)....Pages 247-263 General Introduction to Monte Carlo and Multi-level Monte Carlo Methods (Robin Schmidt, Matthias Voigt, Michele Pisaroni, Fabio Nobile, Penelope Leyland, Jordi Pons-Prats et al.)....Pages 265-278 Latin Hypercube Sampling-Based Monte Carlo Simulation: Extension of the Sample Size and Correlation Control (Robin Schmidt, Matthias Voigt, Ronald Mailach)....Pages 279-289 Multi-level Monte Carlo Method (Jordi Pons-Prats, G. Bugeda)....Pages 291-304 Continuation Multi-level Monte Carlo (Michele Pisaroni, Fabio Nobile, Penelope Leyland)....Pages 305-325 Introduction to Intrusive Perturbation Methods (Alain Dervieux)....Pages 327-334 Algorithmic Differentiation for Second Derivatives (Alain Dervieux)....Pages 335-346 Second-Order Derivatives for Geometrical Uncertainties (Marcin Wyrozębski, Łukasz Łaniewski-Wołłk, Jacek Rokicki)....Pages 347-361 Front Matter ....Pages 363-363 Application of UQ for Turbine Blade CHT Computations (K. Vinogradov, G. Kretinin)....Pages 365-381 Application of Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies to Falcon (G. Rogé, X. Loyatho)....Pages 383-397 Application of UQ to Combustor Design (S. Richard, J. Lamouroux, A. Ndiaye, F. Nicoud)....Pages 399-414 Manufacturing Uncertainties for Acoustic Liners (N. Magnino)....Pages 415-430 Manufacturing Uncertainties in High-Pressure Compressors (Rémy Nigro, Dirk Wunsch, Grégory Coussement, Charles Hirsch)....Pages 431-444 Front Matter ....Pages 445-445 Formulations for Robust Design and Inverse Robust Design (Alberto Clarich, Rosario Russo)....Pages 447-462 Robust Design of Initial Boundary Value Problems (Jan Nordström, Markus Wahlsten)....Pages 463-478 Robust Optimization with Gaussian Process Models (Krzysztof Marchlewski, Łukasz Łaniewski-Wołłk, Sławomir Kubacki, Jacek Szumbarski)....Pages 479-494 Robust Design in Turbomachinery Applications (Rémy Nigro, Dirk Wunsch, Grégory Coussement, Charles Hirsch)....Pages 495-511 Robust Design Measures for Airfoil Shape Optimization (Daigo Maruyama, Stefan Görtz, Dishi Liu)....Pages 513-527 Robust Design with MLMC (Michele Pisaroni, Fabio Nobile, Penelope Leyland)....Pages 529-540 Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk in Optimization Under Uncertainty (Domenico Quagliarella)....Pages 541-565 Combination of Polynomial Chaos with Adjoint Formulations for Optimization Under Uncertainties (Dinesh Kumar, Mehrdad Raisee, Chris Lacor)....Pages 567-582 Robust Multiphysics Optimization of Fan Blade (K. Vinogradov, G. Kretinin, I. Leshenko)....Pages 583-600 UQ Sensitivity Analysis and Robust Design Optimization of a Supersonic Natural Laminar Flow Wing-Body (Domenico Quagliarella, Emiliano Iuliano)....Pages 601-628 Robust Compressor Optimization by Evolutionary Algorithms (Dirk Büche)....Pages 629-645 Robust Optimization of Acoustic Liners (N. Magnino)....Pages 647-662 Application of Robust Design Methodologies to Falcon (G. Rogé, X. Loyatho)....Pages 663-675 Front Matter ....Pages 677-677 Uncertainties Identification and Quantification (Dirk Büche, Sönke Klostermann, Martin Schmelzer)....Pages 679-686 Polynomial Chaos and Collocation Methods and Their Range of Applicability (Chris Lacor, Éric Savin)....Pages 687-702 Surrogate Model-Based Approaches to UQ and Their Range of Applicability (Daigo Maruyama, Dishi Liu, Stefan Görtz)....Pages 703-714 Monte Carlo-Based and Sampling-Based Methods and Their Range of Applicability (Robin Schmidt, Matthias Voigt, Michele Pisaroni, Fabio Nobile, Penelope Leyland, Jordi Pons-Prats et al.)....Pages 715-720 Introduction to Intrusive Perturbation Methods and Their Range of Applicability (Alain Dervieux)....Pages 721-735 Use of Open Source UQ Libraries (Sönke Klostermann, R. Lebrun)....Pages 737-745 Uncertainty Quantification in an Engineering Design Software System (Dirk Wunsch, Rémy Nigro, Grégory Coussement, Charles Hirsch)....Pages 747-754 Use of Automatic Differentiation Tools at the Example of TAPENADE (Alain Dervieux)....Pages 755-764 Formulations for Robust Design and Inverse Robust Design (Alberto Clarich, Rosario Russo)....Pages 765-775 Use of RD in Multiphysics Applications (S. Richard, N. Magnino)....Pages 777-783 Geometrical Uncertainties—Accuracy of Parametrization and Its Influence on UQ and RDO Results (Dishi Liu, Daigo Maruyama, Stefan Görtz)....Pages 785-798 Analysis and Interpretation of Probabilistic Simulation Output (Alberto Clarich, Rosario Russo)....Pages 799-804 Summary of UMRIDA Best Practices (Jordi Pons-Prats, Gabriel Bugeda)....Pages 805-808 Front Matter ....Pages 809-809 Project Summary and Outlook (Charles Hirsch, Dirk Wunsch)....Pages 811-819 "This book covers cutting-edge findings related to uncertainty quantification and optimization under uncertainties (i.e. robust and reliable optimization), with a special emphasis on aeronautics and turbomachinery, although not limited to these fields. It describes new methods for uncertainty quantification, such as non-intrusive polynomial chaos, collocation methods, perturbation methods, as well as adjoint based and multi-level Monte Carlo methods. It includes methods for characterization of most influential uncertainties, as well as formulations for robust and reliable design optimization. A distinctive element of the book is the unique collection of test cases with prescribed uncertainties, which are representative of the current engineering practice of the industrial consortium partners involved in UMRIDA, a level 1 collaborative project within the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). All developed methods are benchmarked against these industrial challenges. Moreover, the book includes a section dedicated to Best Practice Guidelines for uncertainty quantification and robust design optimization, summarizing the findings obtained by the consortium members within the UMRIDA project. All in all, the book offers a authoritative guide to cutting-edge methodologies for uncertainty management in engineering design, covers a wide range of applications and discusses new ideas for future research and interdisciplinary collaborations."-- Provided by publisher