Uncertainty in Risk Assessment : The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment : Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts. There Are A Growing Number Of Researchers And Analysts Who Find The Probability-based Approaches For Assessing Risk And Uncertainties To Be Too Narrow And Limiting. Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Provides A Broad Conceptual Framework And Describes Various Alternative Approaches Of Uncertainty Representation And Characterization Therein Such As Probability-bound Analysis, Imprecise Probability And Evidence Theory.the Authors, Whose Own Research Has Been At The Forefront Of Developments In The Field, Include A Number Of Real-life Applications Which Demonstrate The Practical Use Of The Various Methods In The Different Realistic Circumstances. They Provide Invaluable Practical Guidance And Clear Recommendations On How And When To Use The Various Approaches-- Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Addresses An Important And Current Problem For Which There Are Competing Solutions-- Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi, Roger Flage, Enrico Zio. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Mode Of Access: World Wide Web. "There are a growing number of researchers and analysts who find the probability-based approaches for assessing risk and uncertainties to be too narrow and limiting. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment provides a broad conceptual framework and describes various alternative approaches of uncertainty representation and characterization therein such as probability-bound analysis, imprecise probability and evidence theory. The authors, whose own research has been at the forefront of developments in the field, include a number of real-life applications which demonstrate the practical use of the various methods in the different realistic circumstances. They provide invaluable practical guidance and clear recommendations on how and when to use the various approaches"-- Provided by publisher "Uncertainty in Risk Assessment addresses an important and current problem for which there are competing solutions"-- Provided by publisher