Uncertainties in Greenhouse Gas Inventories : Expanding Our Perspective

This book is based on the 2014 Special Issue 124(3) of Climatic Change. It brings together 16 key papers presented at, or produced, subsequent to the 2010 (3rd) International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories. The Workshop was jointly organized by the Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine; the Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences; and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria. This book has been written to enhance understanding of the uncertainty encountered in estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and in dealing with the challenges resulting from those estimates. Such challenges include, but are not limited to i) monitoring emissions; ii) adhering to emission commitments; iii) securing the proper functioning of emission trading markets; and iv) meeting low-carbon or low-GHG futures in the long term. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed by all authors attempt to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective that seeks to strengthen their usefulness under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches show the challenges and benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analysis and where advances are being made. Front Matter....Pages i-xv Uncertainties in greenhouse gases inventories – expanding our perspective....Pages 1-8 Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world....Pages 9-26 Changes in European greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions 1960–2010: decomposition of determining factors....Pages 27-54 Analysis of change in relative uncertainty in GHG emissions from stationary sources for the EU 15....Pages 55-68 Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives....Pages 69-84 The improvement of greenhouse gas inventory as a tool for reduction emission uncertainties for operations with oil in the Russian Federation....Pages 85-94 Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates....Pages 95-110 Regional spatial inventories (cadastres) of GHG emissions in the Energy sector: Accounting for uncertainty....Pages 111-124 Improving resolution of a spatial air pollution inventory with a statistical inference approach....Pages 125-139 Solving the map overlay problem with a fuzzy approach....Pages 141-154 Determination of the uncertainties of the German emission inventories for particulate matter and aerosol precursors using Monte-Carlo analysis....Pages 155-166 Pricing of uncertain certified emission reductions in a Chinese coal mine methane project with an extended Rubinstein-Ståhl model....Pages 167-182 Uncertainty, cost-effectiveness and environmental safety of robust carbon trading: integrated approach....Pages 183-196 Simulation of an uncertain emission market for greenhouse gases using agent-based methods....Pages 197-212 Economic, institutional and technological uncertainties of emissions trading—a system dynamics modeling approach....Pages 213-226 Accounting for uncertainties and time preference in economic analysis of tackling climate change through forestry and selected policy implications for Scotland and Ukraine....Pages 227-240 This book is based on the 2014 Special Issue 124(3) of Climatic Change. It brings together 16 key papers presented at, or produced, subsequent to the 2010 (3rd) International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The Workshop was jointly organized by the Lviv Polytechnic National University (http://www.lp.edu.ua/en), Ukraine; the Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences (http://www.ibspan.waw.pl/glowna/en); and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/), Austria. This book has been written to enhance understanding of the uncertainty encountered in estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and in dealing with the challenges resulting from those estimates. Such challenges include, but are not limited to i) monitoring emissions; ii) adhering to emission commitments; iii) securing the proper functioning of emission trading markets; and iv) meeting low-carbon or low-GHG futures in the long term