Turnaround Challenge : Business and the City of the Future

Do we have the rights to optimism? Can capitalism deliver a next great wave of growth? The future, wrote William Gibson, is already here. It just isn't evenly distributed yet. Lucid and polemical, Turnaround Challenge is a dig into that future and its meaning for business. It dissects the nexus of social, economic, environmental and governance crises confronting us, and a series of colliding megatrends with the potential to reshape opportunities for growth.Three cities of the future are emerging. The first is Petropolis, the alluringly familiar but decreasingly resilient city, locked into the century old technologies of fossil fuel-driven mass production. This is the city of rising inequality, credit-fuelled consumption, offshored jobs, climate volatility, and unsustainable household and national debt. The second city is Cyburbia . This is mass production on the steroids of IT: the latest manifestation of science fictions citywithout pain, but one inhabited by voice-activated popcorn dispensers, of athletics' shoes with in-built Twitter feeds, of sensor-packed and censoring glass towers that risk reducing their citizens to digital factors of production in the supply chain of big data. The third is the Distributed City, where technology isdeployed with the intent to connect us not virtually but physically--from Nairobi's network of innovation spaces to Hamburg's Participatory Budgeting experiments, from Barcelona's network for micro-manufacturing, to Austin's distributed smart grid.These are the cities of society's future, and they have very different implications for business success, and for how we tackle global megatrends. Blowfield and Johnson present the DNA of the winners of the future, high growth and disruptive businesses, emerging from the bottom up, and with the capacity to tackle societys biggest challenges head on. Introduction -- Turnaround Challenge : Escaping The Petropolis. The Rhetoric Of Extinction ; A View From A Bridge : Does The Rhetoric Have A Rationale? ; Under The Bonnet Of Capitalism : The Model T Ford ; And After Ford ... Is There A Next Great Surge? ; Anatomizing The Crisis ; Transformational Crises ; The Crisis Of Governance ; Can We Still Afford A Ford? -- Megatrends : Mapping Business's Key Challenges. Wicked Problems ... And Their Logical Solutions ; Climate Change ; Climate Change : The Background For Business ; The Challenge Of Aviation ; Demographic Change ; The Economic Crisis And Geo-political Shift ; Governance Crisis ; The Privatization Of Regulation ; The Governance Gap -- Ways Out? The Oracles. Mass Production And The Technological Cycle ; Exit From Petropolis ; Market Moderation, Market Solutions, Or Market Exit? ; The Oracles ; Market Solutions ; Evaluating The Oracles ; Reviewing The Oracles --^ The Dynamics Of Transition : Techno-economic Paradigms. Waiting For The Wave To Break ; Reclaiming The Ict Revolution ; Internal And External Congruence ; Incongruence And Its Impacts On Transition ; How Congruence Happens : The Schumpeterian Approach ; Installation Period ; Turning Point ; Deployment Period ; The Uses Of Techno-economic Paradigms : Mapping An Economy On The S Curve ; The Strange Life Of The Ict Era ; From Producers To Consumers ; Plausible Options -- Cyburbia. Songdo : 'everything One Could Possibly Want' ; The Benefits Of Cyburbia ; Questioning Cyburbia : How Smart Is Smart? --^ The Return Of The Optimist. Beyond Petropolis And Cyburbia ; Techno-optimism Revisited ; Colliding Mega-trends : Rising Chinese Labour Costs ... And Decreasing Costs Of Local Manufacturing ; Structural Or Surface Change ; Drogba And D.light ; Lessons For Business : Innovation Aligned With The Market ; Innovators And Incumbents ; Scanning The Disruptors ; Business Implications : Resolving The Crises Of The Quadrilemma -- The City Of The Future : A Place For People. From Smart Cities To Smart Citizens ; The Great Texas Blackout ; Co-designing The New Energy Economy ; Accelerating Transitions ; From Laboratory To City ; From Consumer To Producer ; Challenge 1 : The Car Shaped City ; Challenge 2 : Political Engagement And Results From Government ; Challenge 3 : Good Jobs --^ Transition : The Turnaround. Innovation And The Entrepreneurial State ; Three Cities Of The Future ; Synergy And The Role Of The Entrepreneurial State ; Moving To Producer Capitalism ; Reasons For Optimism ; Annex : The Grassroots Fablab Instructable. Michael Blowfield And Leo Johnson. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Do We Have The Rights To Optimism? Can Capitalism Deliver A Next Great Wave Of Growth? The Future, Wrote William Gibson, Is Already Here. It Just Isn't Evenly Distributed Yet. Lucid And Polemical, Turnaround Challenge Is A Dig Into That Future And Its Meaning For Business. It Dissects The Nexus Of Social, Economic, Environmental And Governance Crises Confronting Us, And A Series Of Colliding Megatrends With The Potential To Reshape Opportunities For Growth. Three Cities Of The Future Are Emerging. The First Is Petropolis, The Alluringly Familiar But Decreasingly Resilient City, Locked Into The Century Old Technologies Of Fossil Fuel-driven Mass Production. This Is The City Of Rising Inequality, Credit-fuelled Consumption, Offshored Jobs, Climate Volatility, And Unsustainable Household And National Debt. The Second City Is Cyburbia . This Is Mass Production On The Steroids Of It: The Latest Manifestation Of Science Fictions City Without Pain, But One Inhabited By Voice-activated Popcorn Dispensers, Of Athletics' Shoes With In-built Twitter Feeds, Of Sensor-packed And Censoring Glass Towers That Risk Reducing Their Citizens To Digital Factors Of Production In The Supply Chain Of Big Data. The Third Is The Distributed City, Where Technology Is Deployed With The Intent To Connect Us Not Virtually But Physically—from Nairobi's Network Of Innovation Spaces To Hamburg's Participatory Budgeting Experiments, From Barcelona's Network For Micro-manufacturing, To Austin's Distributed Smart Grid. These Are The Cities Of Society's Future, And They Have Very Different Implications For Business Success, And Our Ability To Navigate The Social, Economic, And Environmental Megatrends That Confront Us. Blowfield And Johnson Present The Dna Of The Winners Of The Future, High Growth And Disruptive Businesses, Emerging From The Bottom Up, And With The Capacity To Tackle Society's Biggest Challenges Head On. Business is in an era of crises. Climate change, demographic change, emerging economies, and new ways to organize and govern society are combining to make today's global business environment different to anything in the past. Pessimists say business is making the crises worse, or that the crises are a threat to private enterprise. Optimists say business has nothing to worry about, and that we should carry on with business as usual. As reluctant optimists, the authors argue that business has to succeed, but to do so in an unfamiliar new world will require major changes to what is meant by capitalism. The good news is that capitalism has been through these transformations previously, making business and society more prosperous than before. The worrying news is that what should be a period of transition marked by technological and financial innovation has become a dystopia in which outdated, ill-suited, and implausible ideas turn crises from turning points into disasters. This imaginative and lively book explains how business now finds itself in an environment that is 'incongruent' with its own success and society's prosperity. Drawing equally on theory and real world examples, it explores what 'congruent' capitalism would look like, and how it would address crises more effectively. It highlights cases from around the world that give cause for optimism that productive and progressive companies have more to offer. What emerges is a picture--incomplete but enticing--of how a new form of industrial economy can be brought into being, and the implications this has for enterprise, established firms, government, consumers, the public, and finance. It is a picture that is very different from the one we see today, but it is a vision that is possible, and, given the current state of play, one that offers a ray of optimism for the success of both business and wider society. 1: Introduction -- 2: Turnaround Challenge: Escaping the Petropolis -- 3: Megatrends: Mapping Businesss Key Challenges -- 4: Ways Out? The Oracles -- 5: The Dynamics of Transition: Techno-economic Paradigms -- 6: Cyburbia -- 7: The Return of the Optimist -- 8: The City of the Future: A Place for People -- 9: Transition: The Turnaround