Turkey, Russia and Iran in the Middle East: Establishing a New Regional Order (The Sciences Po Series in International Relations and Political Economy)

This book explores the complexity of the Syrian question and its effects on the foreign policies of Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The Syrian crisis has had a major effect on the regional order in the Middle East. Syria has become a territory where the rivalry between Russia and Western powers is being played out, and with the West's gradual withdrawal, the conflict will without a doubt have lasting effects locally and on the international order. This collection focuses on the effects of the Syrian crisis on the new governance of the Middle East region by three political regimes: Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Many articles and a number of books have been written on this conflict, which has lasted over ten years, but no publication has examined simultaneously and comparatively how these three states are participating in the shared management of the Syrian conflict. Bayram Balci, CNRS/CERI Sciences Po Paris, Institut Français d'Etudes Anatoliennes, Istanbul, Turkey. Balci works on religion and politics in Turkey, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Nicolas Monceau is Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Bordeaux, France. His research focuses on Turkish politics and Turkey in its regional and international environment. He has published several books on Turkey and the EU as well as the Turkish elite Contents Notes on Contributors List of Tables 1 Introduction: Turkey, Russia, and Iran—New Dominant Powers in the Middle East? The Regional Context: The Syrian Conflict Establishing a New Regional Order Structure and Contents of the Book Bibliography 2 Situating ‘New Turkey’ in the Middle East Within a Competition-Cooperation Spiral of Turkish-Russian Relations The Syrian War The Ice Age in Relations Rapprochement Anew: July 15 and a New Direction in Relations The Astana Process Idlib Conundrum Conclusion References 3 The Syrian Crisis and Its Contribution to Authoritarian Transformation of Turkish Domestic and Foreign Policy Identities Debates About Democracy, Turkey, and the Muslim World The Syrian Crisis as a Source of Aggravation of Internal Tensions in Turkish Society Aggravation of the Religious Divide Aggravation of the Ethnic Division and the Breakdown of the Process to Resolve the Kurdish Question The Slide Toward a More Authoritarian Line, the Rapprochement with Russia Conclusion References 4 Turkey and the Syrian Insurgency: From Facilitator to Overlord Playing the Facilitator (2011–2013) Tightening the Grip (2014–2015) Carving up a Buffer Zone, “Building an Army Down There” (2016–2017) Idlib: Drawing a Line in the Sand (2018–2020) Conclusion Bibliography 5 Moscow and the Challenge of Rebuilding Syria Russia’s Business in Syria: A Preferred Government-To-Government Approach Syria’s Attempted Initiatives at Reconstruction Russia’s Preferred Top-Down Approach to Frame Syria’s Reconstruction Black Sea Connections: The Politicization of Limited Economic Opportunities Russia’s Refugee Initiative to the Rescue of the Reconstruction of Syria Moscow’s Roadmap for the Return of the Syrian Refugees Linking the Issue of the Refugees to the Political Process The Limited Impact of the Syrian Factor on Russia’s Domestic Context Conclusion References 6 The Role of Iran in the Syrian Conflict The Syria Conflict from the Perspective of the Iranian Elite Iran’s Defense of the Assad Regime Iranian Diplomacy to Save Assad Conclusion References 7 The Changing Dynamics in the UAE–Syria Relationship UAE–Syria Relations: Brief Background Before 2011 The UAE and Syria Since 2011 Regional Dynamics and UAE’s Change of Policy Toward Syria: 2015–2018 2018 and the UAE’s Shift Toward Syria UAE Foreign Aid to Syria and Syrian Refugees Conclusion References 8 New Regional Powers Confronting Uncertainties in the Middle East Complex Definitions The Middle East, Test-Bed of Global Change The Fight for Recognition The New Middle Eastern Game References 9 The Iran-Russia Geopolitical Encounter: A Marriage of Convenience Rather Than a Strategic Alliance Short-Lived Ententes in a History of Conflict The Islamic Republic’s Ideological Challenge to Soviet Russia Tehran’s Dependency on Post-Soviet Russia Iran’s Regional Policy: Between Internal Debates and Revolutionary Ambitions The Failure of Multipolar Ententes Strategy Conclusion Bibliography 10 Relations Between Turkey and Russia: Between Strategic Partnerships and Regional Rivalries The Conditions for Russian-Turkish Rapprochement A More Favorable Context Marked by the End of the Cold War The Stages of Rapprochement: Official Visits, New Implements for Cooperation The Dimensions of the Russian-Turkish Partnership Economic and Commercial Cooperation Energy Cooperation Military Cooperation Partners and/or Rivals? Convergences and Divergences of Interests Between Turkey and Russia The Converging Interests of Turkey and Russia on the Regional Scale The Diverging Interests of Turkey and Russia on the Regional Scale The Question of NATO and Its Expansion The Fight Against Terrorism The Question of the Armenian Genocide and Its Recognition Energy Cooperation in Competition The Geopolitical and Security Issues in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Cyprus Question Geopolitical and Security Stakes in the Caucasus Region Regional and International Crises: The Iranian Nuclear Question and the Syrian Conflict Conclusion References 11 From Obama, to Trump, and on ... Durable Changes, Durable Continuities? An Elusive Middle East Costly Rebalancing Acts The Arab Revolts Seen from Washington—A Historical Misunderstanding A Doubting America in a Transforming World Back to the “Great Game” and to Big Powers Competition What Can America Still Do (or What Should It Do) in the (Arab) World? What to Expect Next? Biden’s Presidency—To Heal and to Restore A Tentative Conclusion References 12 Syria, the Kurds and the End of the Turkish-American Alliance The Kurds and the West: A Very Turkish Predicament Cold War Turkish Dynamics: Ideology Trumps Identity Post-Cold War Blues with Washington Enter the Middle East The Kurdish Predicament Between Ankara and Washington The Syrian Quagmire Conclusion: A Eurasian Future for Turkey? References 13 By Way of a Conclusion References Index This book explores the complexity of the Syrian question and its effects on the foreign policies of Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The Syrian crisis has had a major effect on the regional order in the Middle East. Syria has become a territory where the rivalry between Russia and Western powers is being played out, and with the West's gradual withdrawal, the conflict will without a doubt have lasting effects locally and on the international order. This collection focuses on the effects of the Syrian crisis on the new governance of the Middle East region by three political regimes: Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Many articles and a number of books have been written on this conflict, which has lasted over ten years, but no publication has examined simultaneously and comparatively how these three states are participating in the shared management of the Syrian conflict. Bayram Balci, CNRS/CERI Sciences Po Paris, Institut Français d'Etudes Anatoliennes, Istanbul, Turkey. Balci works on religion and politics in Turkey, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Nicolas Monceau is Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Bordeaux, France. His research focuses on Turkish politics and Turkey in its regional and international environment. He has published several books on Turkey and the EU as well as the Turkish elite