Transportation and traffic theory 2009 : golden jubilee : papers selected for presentation at ISTTT18, a peer reviewed series since 1959

**Transportation and Traffic Theory 2009 Golden Jubilee** __Papers selected for presentation at ISTTT18, a peer reviewed series since 1959__ edited by William H.K. Lam, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, S.C. Wong, The University of Hong Kong and Hong K. Lo, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology The series of International Symposia on Transportation and Traffic Theory (ISTTT) is the main gathering for the world’s transportation and traffic theorists, and those who are interested in contributing to or gaining a deeper understanding of traffic and transportation phenomena in order to better plan, design and manage the transportation system. Although it embraces a wide range of topics, from traffic flow theories and demand modeling to road safety and logistics and supply chain modeling, the ISTTT is hallmarked by its intellectual innovation, research and development excellence in the treatment of real-world transportation and traffic problems. The ISTTT prides itself in the extremely high quality of its proceedings. Previous ISTTT conferences were held in Warren, Michigan (1959), London (1963), New York (1965), Karlsruhe (1968), Berkeley, California (1971), Sydney (1974), Kyoto (1977), Toronto (1981), Delft (1984), Cambridge, Massachusetts (1987), Yokohama (1990), Berkeley, California (1993), Lyon (1996), Jerusalem (1999), Adelaide (2002), College Park, Maryland (2005), and London (2007). It is timely to organize the 18^th^ ISTTT in Hong Kong, as the thrust of transportation infrastructure development has emerged strongly in Asia. The 18^th^ ISTTT celebrates the 50^th^ Anniversary of this premier conference series. This volume contains 35 chapters selected for presentation at the 18^th^ ISTTT from 230 extended abstracts and subsequently 108 invited full paper submissions, following a rigorous two-tier peer review process. They address a wide range of topics covering both scientific and operational aspects of transportation and traffic, spanning all modes of transport, including freight as well as private and public transport. Front Matter....Pages i-xx A Game Theoretic Approach to the Determination of Hyperpaths in Transportation Networks....Pages 1-18 Network Equilibrium under Cumulative Prospect Theory and Endogenous Stochastic Demand and Supply....Pages 19-38 Estimation of Parameters of Network Equilibrium Models: A Maximum Likelihood Method and Statistical Properties of Network Flow....Pages 39-56 Spatiotemporal Effects of Segregating Different Vehicle Classes on Separate Lanes....Pages 57-74 Microscopic Traffic Behaviour near Incidents....Pages 75-97 Understanding Stop-and-go Traffic in View of Asymmetric Traffic Theory....Pages 99-115 A Stochastic α-reliable Mean-excess Traffic Equilibrium Model with Probabilistic Travel Times and Perception Errors....Pages 117-145 Equilibrium Trip Scheduling in Congested Traffic under Uncertainty....Pages 147-167 Reliable a Priori Shortest Path Problem with Limited Spatial and Temporal Dependencies....Pages 169-195 Risk Averse Second Best Toll Pricing....Pages 197-218 Cordon Pricing Consistent with the Physics of Overcrowding....Pages 219-240 Build-operate-transfer Schemes for Road Franchising with Road Deterioration and Maintenance Effects....Pages 241-261 Equilibria and Inefficiency in Traffic Networks with Stochastic Capacity and Information Provision....Pages 263-281 An Active-set Algorithm for Discrete Network Design Problems....Pages 283-300 Multi-class Multi-modal Network Equilibrium with Regular Choice Behaviors: A General Fixed Point Approach....Pages 301-325 Existence of Equilibrium in a Continuous Dynamic Queueing Model for Traffic Networks with Responsive Signal Control....Pages 327-344 Harmonic Analysis and Optimization of Traffic Signal Systems....Pages 345-364 A Two-direction Method of Solving Variable Demand Equilibrium Models with and without Signal Control....Pages 365-386 Modeling Learning Impacts on Day-to-day Travel Choice....Pages 387-401 A Probit-based Joint Discrete-continuous Model System: Analyzing the Relationship between Timing and Duration of Maintenance Activities....Pages 403-423 Bayesian Learning, Day-to-day Adjustment Process, and Stability of Wardrop Equilibrium....Pages 425-440 Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach....Pages 441-462 The Continuous Risk Profile Approach for the Identification of High Collision Concentration Locations on Congested Highways....Pages 463-480 Driver Behavior, Dilemma Zone, and Capacity at Red Light Camera Equipped Intersections....Pages 481-494 Optimization of a Bus and Rail Transit System with Feeder Bus Services under Different Market Regimes....Pages 495-516 Modelling Dynamic Generation of a Choice Set in Pedestrian Networks....Pages 517-539 A Common Modeling Framework for Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Supply Chain Management Systems with Congestion Phenomena....Pages 541-557 A Pedestrian Model Considering Anticipatory Behaviour for Capacity Evaluation....Pages 559-581 A Comparative Assessment of Stochastic Capacity Estimation Methods....Pages 583-602 Supply-demand Diagrams and a New Framework for Analyzing the Inhomogeneous Lighthill-Whitham-Richards Model....Pages 603-635 Network Evaluation Based on Connectivity Vulnerability....Pages 637-649 Reliability-based Dynamic Discrete Network Design with Stochastic Networks....Pages 651-673 Flow Breakdown, Travel Reliability and Real-time Information in Route Choice Behavior....Pages 675-695 Optimal Sensor Placement for Freeway Travel Time Estimation....Pages 697-721 Updating Dynamic Origin-destination Matrices using Observed Link Travel Speed by Probe Vehicles....Pages 723-738 Back Matter....Pages 1-2 Transportation and Traffic Theory 2009 Golden Jubilee Papers selected for presentation at ISTTT18, a peer reviewed series since 1959 edited by William H.K. Lam, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, S.C. Wong, The University of Hong Kong and Hong K. Lo, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology The series of International Symposia on Transportation and Traffic Theory (ISTTT) is the main gathering for the world’s transportation and traffic theorists, and those who are interested in contributing to or gaining a deeper understanding of traffic and transportation phenomena in order to better plan, design and manage the transportation system. Although it embraces a wide range of topics, from traffic flow theories and demand modeling to road safety and logistics and supply chain modeling, the ISTTT is hallmarked by its intellectual innovation, research and development excellence in the treatment of real-world transportation and traffic problems. The ISTTT prides itself in the extremely high quality of its proceedings. Previous ISTTT conferences were held in Warren, Michigan (1959), London (1963), New York (1965), Karlsruhe (1968), Berkeley, California (1971), Sydney (1974), Kyoto (1977), Toronto (1981), Delft (1984), Cambridge, Massachusetts (1987), Yokohama (1990), Berkeley, California (1993), Lyon (1996), Jerusalem (1999), Adelaide (2002), College Park, Maryland (2005), and London (2007). It is timely to organize the 18 th ISTTT in Hong Kong, as the thrust of transportation infrastructure development has emerged strongly in Asia. The 18 th ISTTT celebrates the 50 th Anniversary of this premier conference series. This volume contains 35 chapters selected for presentation at the 18 th ISTTT from 230 extended abstracts and subsequently 108 invited full paper submissions, following a rigorous two-tier peer review process. They address a wide range of topics covering both scientific and operational aspects of transportation and traffic, spanning all modes of transport, including freight as well as private and public transport. th It is our great privilege and honor to present the proceedings of the 18 International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory (ISTTT), held at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hong Kong, China on 16-18 July 2009. th The 18 ISTTT is jointly organized by the Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies and Department of Civil and Structural Engineering of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. The ISTTT series is the main gathering for the world's transportation and traffic theorists, and those who are interested in contributing to or gaining a deep understanding of traffic and transportation phenomena in order to better plan, design and manage the transportation system. Although it embraces a wide range of topics, from traffic flow theories and demand modeling to road safety and logistics and supply chain modeling, the ISTTT is hallmarked by its intellectual innovation, research and development excellence in the treatment of real-world transportation and traffic problems. The ISTTT prides itself in the extremely high quality of its proceedings. Previous ISTTT conferences were held in Warren, Michigan (1959), London (1963), New York (1965), Karlsruhe (1968), Berkeley, California (1971), Sydney (1974), Kyoto (1977), Toronto (1981), Delft (1984), Cambridge, Massachusetts (1987), Yokohama (1990), Berkeley, California (1993), Lyon (1996), Jerusalem (1999), Adelaide (2002), College Park, Maryland (2005), and London (2007). th th This 18 ISTTT celebrates the 50 Anniversary of this premier conference series.