The Weather Revolution: Innovations and Imminent Breakthroughs in Accurate Forecasting (Language of Science)

## Why Weather Forecasters Are So Often Wrong It's been dubbed The Great Blizzard of '78-1978, that iso The Great Blizzard of February 6-7,1978 totally shut down an area from New Jersey to Maine, dumping 20 inches of snow on the Boston area. It crippled the lives of more than 10 million people, who all had stories to tell. Some were forced to abandon their cars on the Central Artery, the expressway that cuts a swath through the center of the city, and had to take shelter at local schools; some whittled away the night at Logan Airport, playing rummy with other stranded passengers while intermittently sneaking peeks at the whitecaps out on the harbor. And there were those who thought they were safe and secure in their luxurious well-to-do homes on the South Shore, only to witness the awesome force of the sea as it reclaimed the beaches out from under them. The 20-inch snowfall set arecord for Boston. But that wasn' t the worst of it. What created the most havoc was the wind. In the midst of the snow came a roaring wind out of the southeast that pushed before it a tidal surge of seawater. 1 Why Weather Forecasters Are So Often Wrong 3 means that the forecaster has ''blown the forecast" three days into the future just about as many times as he's gotten it right! And it's not just the eastem United States where forecasting is imperfect. An analysis of weather forecasting for ten summers ending in 1986 in Honolulu showed that forecasts were 83% correct. That sounds pretty good, until you realize that the climate in Honolulu is not like the climate anywhere else on the mainland. The climate in Honolulu is fairly uniform, a veritable tropical paradise. In fact, the climate in Honolulu is so uniform that a one-day forecast of no rain every day of the year would have been 85% correct. In other words, the forecasters in Honolulu did worse with their forecasts than no forecast at aIl.1 So why is it so difficult to forecast accurately? Weather forecasting for the public has caused trouble and confusion from the birth of modem meteorology. In 1854, the United Kingdom govemment created the Meteorological Department on the recommendation of the Royal Society, the British equivalent of the United States Academy of Sciences. The first head of the Department was Captain Robert Fitzroy, who was expected to collect data from ships and, because of the recent invention of the telegraph, create weather charts. From these charts, Fitzroy issued some of the first forecasts. In 1861, Fitzroy issued his first storm wamings for coastal regions, and shortly thereafter, the London Times began publishing his weather forecasts. 2 Of course mistakes were made, and the scientists of the Royal Society criticized him for doing what he was supposed to do not very weIl. In his 1863 report, Fitzroy noted "certain persons [in the Royal Society] who were opposed to the system [of forecasting] theoretically at its origins, " and I Weather, in all its variety and majesty, is both a source of Earth's awe-inspiring beauty and a powerful, threatening force. With the brilliant technological innovations of recent times, including lasers, satellites, and supercomputers, scientists have revolutionized the science of accurate weather prediction. As this intriguing work shows, the gap between the "art" and science of forecasting is rapidly narrowing, and the day when we will have accurate weekly and monthly, even yearly, forecasts is quickly approaching. Jack Fishman and Robert Kalish, acclaimed authors of Global Alert: The Ozone Pollution Crisis, clearly and eloquently explain the makings of weather from everyday winds and precipitation to the worst weather disasters. They show how the power of weather still holds us at its mercy and affects us all. Perilous downdrafts, undetectable by airplane pilots, can hurl landing planes into the runway to their doom. Freezing blasts of snow and ice cause traumatic accidents on our streets. Deadly tornadoes descend from thunderclouds, uprooting trees, devastating farmers' fields, and ripping buildings from their very foundations. And hurricanes, the most awesome storms on Earth, smash into the coast with vicious strength - flooding entire cities, lifting houses out to sea, and flattening acres of forest and farmland. . Within the decade, scientists will have made a quantum leap in the ability to make accurate, longrange forecasts. Fishman and Kalish show us the stunning capabilities of a new brand of technology that is bringing about a revolution in weather forecasting. Radar, penetrating deep into the most menacing stormclouds, allows us to "see" the movement of raging winds so we can warn endangered communities before catastrophe strikes. Imminent laser and satellite technology will soon circle our Earth and send clear images of developing storms that will help meteorologists make predictions with an accuracy undreamed of today. In addition to recent breakthroughs, this fascinating work also describes pioneering scientists throughout history who used great technological innovations, from the advent of the computer to rocketry, to further our knowledge of weather and climate. Meteorology has rapidly evolved into a cutting-edge science that has irrevocably increased our understanding of the Earth. This remarkable work shows us the force of weather in all its glory and danger. And it paves the way for the revolution in weather science that will lead us into the future. Front Matter....Pages i-xv Why Weather Forecasters Are So Often Wrong....Pages 1-20 Red Sky at Night: The Scientific Basis for the Old Proverbs....Pages 21-39 Weather Forecasting and the Computer....Pages 41-74 How Satellites Changed the Face of the Earth....Pages 75-115 The Science of Hurricane Forecasting: Saving Lives Is the Bottom Line....Pages 117-154 Forecasting Severe Weather: Bouncing New Ideas Off the Subject....Pages 155-193 Long-Term Weather Prediction: Are Forecasters Full of Hot Air?....Pages 195-228 A “Hole” New Way of Forecasting....Pages 229-245 The Revolution Has Begun....Pages 247-264 Back Matter....Pages 265-276