The United States and Contemporary China-Russia Relations : Theoretical Insights and Implications

China and Russia have grown progressively closer over the last two decades, yielding a China-Russia “axis” uniquely capable of challenging the United States and of revising key aspects of the international order. Although the scholarly literature has offered detailed descriptions and various ad hoc explanations of this trend, the Sino-Russian bilateral relationship has been the subject of very little scrutiny using rigorous theory, which has precluded the formation of logically coherent and empirically supported explanations for increasing China-Russia cooperation. Moreover, the cooperative post-Cold War trend in the bilateral relationship is puzzling for each of the major paradigms of international relations theory: realism, constructivism and liberalism. This volume brings together leading IR scholars from various theoretical perspectives, as well as theoretically-informed experts in Chinese and Russian foreign policy. The chapters develop and apply nuanced theoretical arguments to derive testable hypotheses for the cooperative trend in China-Russia relations. In contrast to existing scholarship, the book offers generalizable insights that both improve our understanding of a crucially important contemporary case, while also advancing IR theory in substantial ways. Acknowledgements 6 Contents 8 Notes on Contributors 10 List of Figures 14 List of Tables 16 International Relations Theory and the Puzzle of China-Russia Alignment 17 Scholarship on China-Russia Relations and the Necessity of Theory 20 Application of Theory to China-Russia Relations 27 Contributions and Limitations of the Book 31 Conclusion 37 References 38 Typological Theory and Description of China-Russia Relations 43 Measuring Strategic Cooperation in China-Russia Relations 44 Introduction 44 The Military Alignment Framework 46 An Empirical Assessment of China-Russia Military Alignment 50 The Early Stage: CBMs and Regular Consultations 51 Moderate Cooperation: MTC and Regular Military Exercises 55 Advanced Cooperation: The Growing Interoperability of Military Forces 59 Conclusion 61 References 63 China, Russia and the United States: Balance of Power or National Narcissism? 69 Balance of Power vs. National Narcissism 70 Balancing Coalition? 72 A Case Study in Cooperation: Shanghai Cooperation Organization 74 A Case Study in Dissonance: Diverging Sino-Russian Interests Over Ukraine 76 The Sino-Russian Anti-American Balancing Assumption 79 Conclusions: A Fragile but Quite Robust Strategic Partnership 86 References 89 Partnering Up in the New Cold War? Explaining China-Russia Relations in the Post-Cold War Era 92 Introduction: A New Cold War in the Making? 92 The 1994 “Constructive Partnership”—Reducing Mutual Fears 94 The 1996 Strategic Partnership: Driven by a Common Threat 96 The 2001–2004 “Aloof Relations”: Economy, not Security 99 The 2010 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: US Threats Plus Economic Interests 104 America’s New Cold War with China and Russia 106 Conclusion 110 References 112 Deductive Application of Theory to China-Russia Relations 118 China’s and Russia’s New Status Relationship 119 Status and Identity 122 Russia’s Tilt Toward China 125 China’s Interest in Cooperation with Russia 129 Status Accommodation in Central Asia 131 Conclusion 134 References 135 China and Russia Contra Liberal Hegemony 142 Introduction 142 China, Russia, and the West 146 Evidence 150 Containment and Rollback of Liberal Democracy 150 Beijing and Moscow Explicitly Call Liberal Democracy a Threat 153 Better Relations with Authoritarian States and Actors 154 Cooperation Against Human Rights Criticism 155 Russian Election Interference in the United States in 2016 and 2020 156 Objections to the Argument 157 Implications 158 Works Cited 160 The Paradox of Sino-Russian Partnership: Global Normative Alignment and Regional Ontological Insecurity 165 Sources of Sino-Russian Global Normative Alignment 166 Non-Interference in Authoritarian States and Information Sovereignty 166 Opposition to the U.S. Alliance System and Its Extension into Asia 167 Partnership Narratives 168 Competing Elements 169 Lack of Regional Integration: Explanations and Examples 178 The Sino-Russian Border Regions 179 COVID-19 and Sino-Russian Relations 180 Conclusions 182 Works Cited 183 Inductive Theory Building from China-Russia Relations 191 The US Factor in China’s Successful Reassurance of Russia 192 Effect of Third-Party Threat on Credibility 195 Mechanism 1: Reduced Incentives to Misrepresent 197 Mechanism 2: Increased Constraints 199 Theoretical and Empirical Implications 199 China’s Post-Cold War Reassurance of Russia 201 Behavioral Third-Party Threat and Credibility by Constraint: China’s Reassurance of Russia Under Yeltsin 201 Fundamental Third-Party Threat and Credible Signals of Compatibility: China’s Reassurance Toward Russia Under Putin 203 Implications for China-Russia-US Relations in the Post-Trump Era 206 Conclusion 211 References 211 Bargaining, Nuclear Weapons, and Alliance Choices in US-China-Russia Relations 216 Choosing Sides 220 The Bargaining Approach 223 Bargaining Between Three Players 226 The Nuclear Angle 230 Conclusion 235 References 236 Sino-Russian Logrolling and the Future of Great Power Competition 239 Background and Literature Review 241 Logrolling in International Relations 244 A General Model of Cross-Regional Revisionist Logrolling 245 Do the Conditions for Revisionist Logrolling Exist Between Russia and China? 247 Sino-Russian Relations: Logrolling in Practice? 253 Bibliography 257 Prescriptions and Predictions for U.S.-China-Russia Relations 261 America’s Growing Agreement on Countering Russia-China Challenges 262 Context 263 Russian-Chinese Relations: Status, Trajectory, and Negative Implications 266 America’s China Policy Debate—Bridging the Gap 268 Hardening Policy Targeting China, 2017–2020 272 Recent Developments: Biden’s Tough Approach to China 277 Conclusion 278 References 279 Conclusion: Explaining the China-Russia Partnership 283 Implications for IR Theory 283 Implications for US-China-Russia Relations 285 Conceptualizing China-Russia Relations 286 The Centrality of the US in China-Russia Cooperation 289 The Balance of Power 290 Material Interests 292 Identity 293 Information 294 IR Theory and Explanation of the China-Russia Partnership 296 Predictions and Prescriptions 298 The Durability of Sino-Russian Alignment 298 No Half-Measures? The US Response to the China-Russia Challenge 300 References 301 Index 303