The Tyranny of Uncertainty : A New Framework to Predict, Remediate and Monitor Risk

The authors offer a revolutionary solution to risk management. It's the unknown risks that keep leaders awake at night--wondering how to prepare for and steer their organization clear from that which they cannot predict. Businesses, governments and regulatory bodies dedicate endless amounts of time and resources to the task of risk management, but every leader knows that the biggest threats will come from some new chain of events or unexpected surprises--none of which will be predicted using conventional wisdom or current risk management technologies and so management will be caught completely off guard when the next crisis hits. By adopting a scientific approach to risk management, we can escape the limited and historical view of experience and statistical based risk management models to expose dynamic complexity risks and prepare for new and never experienced events Front Matter....Pages i-xxiv Front Matter....Pages 1-2 Framing the Risk Challenge....Pages 3-13 Understanding the Hidden Risk of Dynamic Complexity....Pages 15-23 Understanding the Nature of Risk....Pages 25-31 Human Interaction and Perception of Risk....Pages 33-41 Risk Evolves as Experience Evolves....Pages 43-52 Why the Risk Comes as a Surprise....Pages 53-56 Systemic and Systematic Risk....Pages 57-62 How Risk Is Currently Mitigated Versus How It Should Be Mitigated....Pages 63-73 Consequentialism Is Necessary....Pages 75-81 Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Risk Management....Pages 83-89 Front Matter....Pages 91-92 Modern Risk Management....Pages 93-103 Evolution and Risk: The Bridge and the Missing Link....Pages 105-108 The Role of Dynamic Complexity in Risk Propagation....Pages 109-111 Scientific Deterministic Risk Management....Pages 113-117 New Universal Risk Management Methodology (X-Act® OBC Platform)....Pages 119-125 Risk Discovery: Using Patterns to Spot the Un-Spottable....Pages 127-138 Predictive Modeling....Pages 139-145 Causal Deconstruction....Pages 147-167 The Need for Hierarchic Predictive Emulation....Pages 169-174 A Mathematical Treatise of Dynamic Complexity....Pages 175-189 Front Matter....Pages 91-92 Emulative Deconstruction for Mathematical Prediction....Pages 191-199 Singularity and Chaos Theory....Pages 201-208 The Mathematical Solution....Pages 209-223 Front Matter....Pages 225-228 The Big Dig: Business Evolution and IT Dephasing Creates Dynamic Complexity....Pages 229-241 From Corporate Survival to Revival....Pages 243-255 An Industry Reinvented by Design: Postal Services....Pages 257-269 Expanding Under Control and the Transformative Evolution....Pages 271-278 Healthcare System Efficiency: Avoiding a Major Misdiagnosis....Pages 279-286 The 2007 Financial Meltdown: Was It Avoidable?....Pages 287-301 Greece in Crisis: The Haze, Mirage and Survival....Pages 303-311 Dealing with the Growing Epidemic of Chronic Crisis....Pages 313-327 Risk Management: A Future Perspective....Pages 329-335 Disruption: The Way to Fight Chronic Risk....Pages 337-348 Epilog....Pages 349-356 Back Matter....Pages 357-373 Annotation It's the unknown risks that keep leaders awake at night - wondering how to prepare for and steer their organisation clear from that which they cannot predict. Businesses, governments and regulatory bodies dedicate endless amounts of time and resources to the task of risk management, but every leader knows that the biggest threats will come from some new chain of events or unexpected surprises - none of which will be predicted using conventional wisdom or current risk management technologies and so management will be caught completely off guard when the next crisis hits. By adopting a scientific approach to risk management, we can escape the limited and historical view of experience and statistical based risk management models to expose dynamic complexity risks and prepare for new and never experienced events