The Tragedy of Failure: Evaluating State Failure and Its Impact on the Spread of Refugees, Terrorism, and War (PSI Reports)

This intriguing approach to international conflict seeks to facilitate a dialogue between academics and policymakers on how to better anticipate and prevent state failure, subsequent forced migration, and the terrorist threat that often results.Despite the far reaching implications of state failure, little research has been devoted to its consequences. Postulating that failed and failing states enable the existence of terrorist organizations, The Tragedy of Failure: Evaluating State Failure and Its Impact on the Spread of Refugees, Terrorism, and War bridges that gap. Both descriptive and prescriptive, the book offers a nuanced examination of the relationship between forced migration, state failure, and terrorism. The author suggests policy strategies that are capable of anticipating the onset of forced migration situations before they develop into crises and presents quantitative forecasting models with the ability to predict the occurrence of state failure and forced migration as much as two years in advance. Buoyed by this work and the tools it offers, policymakers can focus more closely on the issue of failed states and the movement of refugees and internally displaced persons in the interest of targeting and eliminating dangerous terrorist organizations. The Origins Of The State And What It Means To Fail -- The Two Approaches To State Failure -- A New Perspective : The Severity Stage Model -- Evaluating State Failure As A Cause Of Forced Migration -- State Failure, Refugees, And The Spread Of Terrorism -- Beyond State Failure : Examining Latent Factors, Failed Public Policy, And Their Impact On The Forced Migration Crisis -- The Tragedy Of Failure -- Appendices : A. Absolute Transition Approach Model -- Logistic Regression Odds Ratio Results -- B. Process Approach Model -- Ordered Logistic Regression Odds Ratio Results -- C. Episodes Of State Failure : Ethnic War -- D. Episodes Of State Failure : Revolutionary War -- E. Episodes Of State Failure : War Against Oppressive Regimes -- F. Episodes Of State Failure : Genocide And/or Politicide -- G. Model Explaining Net Refugee Stocks : Ols -- Fixed Effects Regression -- H. List Of Countries In The Analysis -- I. State Failure Task Force Logistic Regression Results -- J. Descriptive Statistics Of Terrorism And Forced Migration -- K. Ols Regression Of Terrorism On Forced Migration With Random Effects -- L. Origin Of Refugees For Illustrative Case Studies, 2005. Tiffiany O. Howard. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Research has found that state failure events, such as internal wars and political upheavals are the antecedents of most humanitarian emergencies. Although scholars studying humanitarian emergencies, such as forced migration, may not have the ability to precisely predict their occurrence, there is research available that suggests that with the onset of episodes of state crisis, humanitarian emergencies can be anticipated. Therefore, with the occurrence of each episode of state failure, there is the expectation that a humanitarian crisis will inevitably emerge. This book positions state failure as a process that occurs in two discrete stages : one in which a state can be said to be failing and is in decline, or one in which it has reached the point of complete breakdown, and explores the relationship between state collapse and forced migration This Intriguing Approach To International Conflict Seeks To Facilitate A Dialogue Between Academics And Policymakers On How To Better Anticipate And Prevent State Failure, Subsequent Forced Migration, And The Terrorist Threat That Often Results. • Includes Case Studies Of Failed And Failing States, Including Somalia, Pakistan, Colombia, Haiti, And Sudan • Provides Maps Of Sudan, Pakistan, Sierra Leone, And Somali Showing The Terrorist Cells Present In These States • A Broad-based Bibliography Of Sources From International Conflict Studies, Refugee And Migration, And Terrorism Studies