The Theory That Would Not Die : How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy

Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. Contents......Page 8 Preface and Note to Readers......Page 10 Acknowledgments......Page 13 Part I. Enlightenment and the Anti-Bayesian Reaction......Page 16 1. Causes in the Air......Page 18 2. The Man Who Did Everything......Page 28 3. Many Doubts, Few Defenders......Page 49 Part II. Second World War Era......Page 74 4. Bayes Goes to War......Page 76 5. Dead and Buried Again......Page 102 Part III. The Glorious Revival......Page 104 6. Arthur Bailey......Page 106 7. From Tool to Theology......Page 112 8. Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, and Heart Attacks......Page 123 9. There’s Always a First Time......Page 134 10. 46,656 Varieties......Page 144 Part IV. To Prove Its Worth......Page 152 11. Business Decisions......Page 154 12. Who Wrote The Federalist?......Page 169 13. The Cold Warrior......Page 178 14. Three Mile Island......Page 191 15. The Navy Searches......Page 197 Part V. Victory......Page 226 16. Eureka!......Page 228 17. Rosetta Stones......Page 248 Dr. Fisher’s Casebook......Page 268 Applying Bayes’ Rule to Mammograms and Breast Cancer......Page 270 Notes......Page 274 G......Page 286 S......Page 287 T......Page 288 Bibliography......Page 290 B......Page 322 C......Page 323 D......Page 324 F......Page 325 G......Page 326 I......Page 327 L......Page 328 M......Page 329 P......Page 330 S......Page 332 U......Page 334 Z......Page 335 Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, __The Theory That Would Not Die__ is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. "Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years--at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time."-- Provided by publisher Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years -- at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. - Publisher. Part 1 : Enlightenment and the anti-Bayesian reaction. Causes in the air The man who did everything Many doubts, few defenders Part 2 : Second World War era. Bayes goes to war Dead and buried again Part 3 : The glorious revival. Arthur Bailey From tool to theology Jerome Cornfield, lung cancer, and heart attacks There's always a first time 46,656 varieties Part 4 : To prove its worth. Business decisions Who wrote The Federalist? The cold warrior Three Mile Island The Navy searches Part 5 : Victory. Eureka! Rosetta stones Appendixes. Dr. Fisher's casebook Applying Baye's Rule to mammograms and breast cancer