The Sunken Billions Revisited : Progress and Challenges in Global Marine Fisheries

This report updates previous studies that measured in economic terms the extent of biological losses attributable to overfishing globally. The new estimates assess these 'sunken billions' at $83 billion annually. The report further shows that a clear path can lead to the recovery of these considerable losses, including through significant reduction in global fishing overcapacity. A breakdown between regions is also included, showing that the effort needed to achieve this reform will not be felt equally throughout the world. While the cost of such reform will likely be high, the expected benefits include an increase in biomass by a factor of 2.7, increase in annual harvests by 13 percent, and a 30-fold increase in annual net benefits accrued to the fisheries sector (from $3 billion to $86 billion annually). This urgent call for action is reinforced by the impacts of climate change on fish stocks and fisheries worldwide. Cover -- Half Title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- About the Authors -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- 1 Introduction: Trends in Global Fisheries and Fisheries Governance -- The original Sunken Billions (2009) -- Approach and scope of this updated study -- Current trends in global fisheries -- Fisheries governance and management -- Notes -- References -- 2 Basic Approach: The Bio-Economic Model and Its Inputs -- Characteristics of the model -- Basic structure of the model -- Core functions of the model -- Estimation of model inputs -- Notes -- References -- 3 The Sunken Billions Revisited: Main Results -- Main results -- Sensitivity analysis and confidence intervals -- Regional analysis of the estimated sunken billions -- Notes -- References -- 4 Dynamics of Global Fisheries Reform: Recovering the Sunken Billions -- Evolution of global fisheries between 2004 and 2012 -- Different pathways to the optimal state for global fisheries -- A temporary reduction in benefits -- Recovering the sunken billions: The way forward -- Notes -- References -- Appendix A: Basic Approach and Methodology -- The bio-economic model -- Maximizing net benefits -- Accounting for model inaccuracy -- Note -- References -- Appendix B: The Bio-Economic Model -- The bio-economic model -- The Pella-Tomlinson exponent (γ) -- A stylized example of the impact of a larger stock on the average price of fish -- Note -- References -- Appendix C: Estimation of Model Inputs -- Global maximum sustainable yield (MSY) -- The carrying capacity (Xmax) -- The Pella-Tomlinson exponent (γ) -- Schooling parameter (b) -- Elasticity of price with respect to biomass (d) -- Biomass growth (ẋ) in the base year -- Volume of landings (y) in the base year -- Price of landed catch (p) in the base year -- Fisheries net benefits (π) in the base year -- Notes -- References -- Boxes 1.1 The evolving international legal fisheries regime -- 4.1 Accounting for fish wealth in Mauritania -- Figures -- O.1 State of global marine fish stocks, 1974-2013 -- O.2 Incremental benefits of global fisheries reform: Projected dynamics of Evolution of biomass under current and moderate paths -- O.3 Distribution of sunken billions, by region -- O.4 Sources of economic benefits from moving to the optimal sustainable state for global fisheries -- 1.1 Global trends in biological states of fish stocks, 1974-2013 -- 1.2 Global marine catches 1950-2012 -- 1.3 Evolution of global marine catches by species group, 1950-2012 -- 1.4 Average catch per fisher per year -- 1.5 Estimated global average fish prices -- 1.6 Global fish production, 1950-2012 -- 2.1 Maximum sustainable yield and maximum economic yield -- 2.2 Structure of the bio-economic model -- 3.1 Breakdown of 2012 sunken billions estimate: Sources of additional economic benefits in the optimal sustainable state -- 3.2 Sensitivity of estimated foregone benefits to the model inputs -- 3.3 Regional distribution of total sunken billions -- 4.1 Kobe diagram for fishing effort and biomass, 2004 and 2012 -- 4.2 Kobe diagram for net benefits and biomass, 2004 and 2012 -- 4.3 Assumed evolution of fishing effort under current and moderate paths -- 4.4 Evolution of harvest under current and moderate paths -- 4.5 Evolution of biomass under current and moderate paths -- 4.6 Evolution of fisheries net benefits under moderate and current paths -- 4.7 Assumed evolution of the fishing effort under the moderate and most rapid paths, in comparison with the current path -- 4.8 Evolution of net benefits under the moderate and most rapid paths, in comparison with the current path -- B.4.1.1 The estimated composition of natural wealth in Mauritania -- A.1 Bio-economic model flowchart A.2 The bio-economic model: A steady state representation -- A.3 The bio-economic model: A dynamic representation -- B.1 Pella-Tomlinson biomass growth (γ = 1.2) -- B.2 An example of the sustainable fisheries model (b = 0.7, γ = 1.2) -- B.3 The sustainable fisheries model: An example with two schooling parameters -- B.4 Examples of the Pella-Tomlinson biomass growth function -- B.5 Sustainable yield functions -- C.1 Evolution of estimated aggregate schooling parameter, 1970-2012 -- C.2 Implied average landed catch price -- C.3 Cost structure in the fishing industry, 2012 -- C.4 The sustainable fishery, 2012 -- Tables -- 2.1 Inputs for bio-economic model for the 2012 base year -- 3.1 Summary results of the bio-economic model for the base year -- 3.2 Confidence intervals for foregone net benefits -- 3.3 Inputs for bio-economic model for the 2012 base year, by region -- 3.4 Estimated biomass in 2012 and biomass at maximum sustainable yield -- 3.5 Difference between the optimal sustainable state and the current state of fishery, by region -- 4.1 Estimated present value of global fishery, by adjustment path -- B.1 Attributes of the Pella-Tomlinson biomass growth function -- B.2 A stylized example of the impact of stock increase on average landings price -- C.1 Model coefficients and variables that need to be estimated -- C.2 Global data for estimation of model coefficients and base-year variables -- C.3 Estimates of empirical model inputs -- C.4 Formulae to calculate model parameters and base-year variables -- C.5 Model coefficients and base-year variables

Global marine fisheries are in crisis: 90 percent are fully fished and overfished. The result is lost economic benefits of approximately $83 billion a year ---the "sunken billions" of the title. Reducing overfishing would allow severely overexploited fish stocks to recover over time. Subsequently, the combination of larger fish stocks and reduced but sustainable fishing activities would lead to higher economic yields. However, to reach that equilibrium, comprehensive and coordinated reforms are necessary. The Sunken Billions Revisited: Progress and Challenges in Global Marine Fisheries builds on The Sunken Billions: The Economic Justification for Fisheries Reform, a 2009 study published by the World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, but with a deeper regional analysis.

Updates previous studies measuring the economic impacts of biological losses attributable to global overfishing, with new estimates that these "sunken billions" amount to $83 billion annually. It shows that a clear path can lead to the recovery of these losses, including through significant reduction in global fishing over-capacity.