The Strategic Logic of Chinas Economy: Millennial Pathways, Mega-strategy and the World in 2100 (Contributions to Economics)

This book reviews China’s strategic pathway over the last 1000 years and considers its prospects for ascending to high-income status by the end of the 21st century. It analyzes why, although China’s chances of joining the global core are sound, they are not outstanding; in addition, it faces mounting challenges, internal and external alike. The argument is presented in the framework of dynamic-strategy theory, which is expounded here in novel form. This exposition includes a wide ranging survey of global history, with a focus on the development of the industrialisation paths of the major economies of today, including a detailed study of Japan's long-run strategic pathway. The book’s closing section presents a scenario-based discussion of China’s potential place in the world in 2100. The analysis implies that China’s zenith is likely to be reached slightly before mid-century, after which its relative economic scale will likely decline. Beyond that general finding, the scenarios investigate the wide range of plausible outcomes that China may experience: a range that the author contends is much wider for China than for nations under-pinned by less complex political-economies. Given its scope, the book will appeal to scholars of history, economics, geopolitics and sinology, and to anyone interested in learning about China’s economic prospects at a time of increasingly heated ideological and empirical debates. Foreword Preface Symbols and Pro-Numerals from the Dynamic-Strategy Theory Acknowledgements Contents About the Author List of Figures List of Tables Part I: Theoretical Foundations Chapter 1: The Strategic Logic of China ́s Economy 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Theoretical Foundations 1.3 Asia ́s First Industrial Giant: Lessons from Japan 1.4 China ́s Historical Development Path and Future Prospects Within the World System References Chapter 2: The Dynamic Strategy Theory, a Formal Statement 2.1 Introduction and Motivation 2.2 The Dynamic Strategy Theory 2.3 An Extension: The Cycle and Strategic Confidence 2.4 The Strategic Alternator: The Microeconomic Operation of the Dynamic Strategy Theory 2.5 Conclusions References Chapter 3: Industrialisation Sub-strategies: Theory and Practice 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Strategies and Sub-strategies Under the Industrial Paradigm 3.3 A Formal Framework for Sub-strategic Diagnosis 3.4 A Diagrammatic Exposition: Introducing the Strategy Grid 3.5 The Strategy Grids of First- and Second-Generation Industrialisers 3.6 Conclusion References Chapter 4: Asia ́s First Industrial Giant: Japan ́s Strategic Pursuit 4.1 Introduction 4.2 From Tokugawa Seclusion to Dynamic Latecomer and Imperial Power: 1850 to World War II 4.3 From Being a Miracle to Needing One? Japanese Strategy from 1950 4.3.1 The 1950s and 1960s 4.3.2 The 1970s Onwards 4.4 Beyond the Bubble 4.5 Conclusions References Part II: China Chapter 5: China ́s Millennial Pathway in a Strategic Mirror 5.1 Introduction 5.2 An Alternative Periodisation of Chinese History 5.3 Answering Needham: China ́s Strategic Mix During and After the Song 5.4 Longevity of Empire in a Dynamic Strategy Mirror 5.5 International Engagement from the Song Forward 5.6 Self-Strengthening: A Half-Hearted and Thus Doomed Attempt to Engage with the Industrial Global Strategic Transition 5.7 From the Demise of the Qing to the People ́s Republic 5.8 Conclusions References Chapter 6: China ́s Economic Performance and Strategic Pathway from the Late Qing to the Death of Mao 6.1 Introduction 6.2 China ́s Relative Living Standards over Two Millennia 6.3 China ́s Relative Living Standards and Absolute Relevance since 1820 6.4 The Nature of Chinese Strategy before 1890 as Revealed by the Composition of Economic Activity 6.5 Evidence of Industrialisation between 1890 and the Rise of the People ́s Republic 6.6 Industrialisation in the People ́s Republic: China under Mao 6.7 Conclusions References Chapter 7: China ́s Strategic Pathway from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Reform and Opening-Up: The Initial Foray, 1978-1985 7.3 Macro Instability and Strategic Uncertainty: 1985-1992 7.4 Centralising, Turning Outward and ``reform with losers ́ ́: 1992-2001 7.5 China ́s Engagement with the Global Trading Apparatus 7.6 Dynamic Substitution in China ́s Trade 7.7 China ́s Strategic Pathway: The Hu-Wen Era 7.8 Conclusions References Chapter 8: The Xi Inheritance 8.1 Introduction 8.2 China ́s Historical Industrialisation Path in Comparative Perspective 8.3 Policy Parameters as Xi Ascended and the Historical System 8.3.1 Energy and the Environment 8.3.2 The Cost of Capital and the Reform of Domestic and International Finance 8.3.3 The Remuneration of Labour, Particularly Internal Migrants 8.3.4 Fiscal Policy 8.3.5 International Competitiveness and Factor Market Distortions 8.4 A Political-Economic Comment 8.5 Conclusions References Chapter 9: China ́s Strategic Pursuit under Xi Jinping and the New Era 9.1 Introduction 9.2 The Achievements and Disappointments of Xi ́s First Two Terms 9.3 Alternatives to a Smooth Transition 9.4 The Strategic Record: The 5YP Plan and Xi ́s Work Reports References Chapter 10: China in the World-System: Strategic Pathways to 2100 10.1 Introduction 10.2 The Narrative Worlds on which the Pathways Are Built 10.2.1 Schism 10.2.2 Song 10.2.3 Shadow 10.3 The Pathways 10.4 An Aside on Population and Its Influence on Absolute and Relative Scale 10.5 The Suite of Pathways and the Strategy Grid References Appendix: The Laws of History Primary Laws Secondary Laws of Historical Change Tertiary Laws of Institutional Change Bibliography of Databases Subscription Databases Other Index