The Secular Decline of the South African Manufacturing Sector : Policy Interventions, Missing Links and Gaps in Discussions

This book examines the global and domestic factors that have influenced the decline of South African manufacturing. Quantitative and econometric techniques are used to analyse the macroeconomic conditions that derive improved performance within the manufacturing sector. Empirical evidence is used to set out policy recommendations that would allow the South African National Development Plan to meet its objectives. This books aims to bring together analysis of industrial policy, competition policy, and merger remedies to produce a framework on how to preserve a competitive environment and support output, investment, and employment growth. It is relevant to those interested in African, development, and labour economics. Front Matter ....Pages i-xxxiii Introduction (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 1-11 Front Matter ....Pages 13-13 The Rationale for Focusing on the Manufacturing Sector as an Important Driver of Growth, Missing Links and Existing Policy Gaps? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 15-28 Does Trade-Openness Affect the Role of the Domestic Output-Gap on Inflation? If So, What is the Role of the Global Output-Gap? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 29-46 Does an Increase in Trade-Openness and Import-Penetration Affect Income Inequality? Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector Output Growth and Employment Growth (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 47-56 What Is the Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on the South African Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 57-65 What Is the Impact of Shocks to Imports by Stage of Production on the Manufacturing Sector Output and Employment Growth? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 67-78 What Is the Impact of Imports by Stage of Production and the Manufacturing Sector Investment Growth? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 79-90 Front Matter ....Pages 91-91 What Is the Impact of Global Trade Uncertainty and the Exchange Rate Volatility on the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 93-103 How Does Activity in Manufacturing Sector Respond to Trade and Exchange Rate Shocks? Evidence from Trade-Openness and Import Penetration Thresholds (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 105-120 What Is the Impact of Heightened Economic Policy Uncertainty and Adverse Financial Conditions on the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 121-130 What Is the Impact of Commodity Price Booms and Capital Flows Surges Episodes on the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 131-142 What Are the Effects of Capital Flow Shocks on the Domestic Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 143-152 Does the Persistent Widening in the Trade Deficit Explain the Decline in the Manufacturing Sector Output and Employment Growth? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 153-163 Front Matter ....Pages 165-165 Do Credit Booms, Financial and Credit Cycles Affect Activity in the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 167-176 What Is the Role of Business and Consumer Confidence in Amplifying the Transmission of Positive Shocks into the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 177-190 Do Positive Investment Shocks in the Manufacturing Sector Result in Increased Labour Absorption and Participation Rates? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 191-199 Front Matter ....Pages 201-201 Did the Decline in the Excess Capital Adequacy Ratio Amplify the Monetary Policy Easing and Credit Cycles on Activity in the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 203-218 Did the Increase in Excess Liquid Assets of Banks Amplify the Effects of Tight Macro-prudential Tools on Activity in the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 219-227 Did Loose Loan-to-Value and Repayment-to-Income Ratios Amplify Commodity Price Booms on Activity in the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 229-241 Do Tight Loan-to-Value and Repayment-to-Income Ratios Amplify the Effects of Tight Monetary Policy Cycles on the Manufacturing Sector Activity? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 243-250 What Is the Impact of Selected Financial Regulation and Macro-prudential Tools on Credit to the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 251-263 Did Monetary Policy Easing Cycles Propagate the Impact of Credit and Financial Boom Cycles on Activity in the Manufacturing Sector during 2005Q1 and 2008Q3? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 265-274 What Was the Role of Demand Shocks, Supply Shocks, Productivity Shocks and Monetary Policy Shocks on the Manufacturing Sector during 2005Q1 and 2008Q3? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 275-285 Front Matter ....Pages 287-287 The Role of Electricity Price Shocks on the Manufacturing Sector Output and Employment Growth (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 289-299 What Is the Impact of the Manufacturing Sector Output and Sub-sector Employment Growth on the Labour Absorption and Participation Rates? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 301-309 What Is the Nature of the Output-Employment in the Manufacturing Sector? Evidence from the Manufacturing Subsectors (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 311-323 Front Matter ....Pages 325-325 What Are the Effects of the Minimum Wage and Productivity Growth on the Manufacturing Sector Output and Employment Growth? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 327-340 What Is the Impact of Market Income Concentration and the Mergers and Acquisitions Channel on the Manufacturing Sector? (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 341-353 Conclusion (Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou)....Pages 355-362 Back Matter ....Pages 363-370