The Return of the Cold War: Ukraine, The West and Russia (Routledge Contemporary Russia and Eastern Europe Series)

This book examines the crisis in Ukraine, tracing its development and analysing the factors which lie behind it. It discusses above all how the two sides have engaged in political posturing, accusations, escalating sanctions and further escalating threats, arguing that the ease with which both sides have reverted to a Cold War mentality demonstrates that the Cold War belief systems never really disappeared, and that the hopes raised in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union for a new era in East-West relations were misplaced. The book pays special attention to the often ignored origins of the crisis within Ukraine itself, and the permanent damage caused by the fact that Ukrainians are killing Ukrainians in the eastern parts of the country. It also assesses why Cold War belief systems have re-emerged so easily, and concludes by considering the likely long-term ramifications of the crisis, arguing that the deep-rooted lack of trust makes the possibility of compromise even harder than in the original Cold War. The Return of the Cold War: Ukraine, the West and Russia 8 Contents 10 List of illustrations 12 List of contributors 14 Foreword 17 Notes 19 Preface 20 Russian and Ukrainian transliterations 20 Acronyms and abbreviations 21 Part I: International relations 24 1 Sergei M. Plekhanov: Assisted suicide: Internal and external causes of the Ukrainian Crisis 26 Notes 48 2 Michael Johns: Caught between Russia and NATO: The EU during and after the Ukrainian Crisis 49 A brief history of EU–Russian relations 50 The Ukrainian Crisis and Russian–EU relations 54 EU–NATO relations after the Ukrainian Crisis 56 The EU Neighbourhood: moving forward 58 What next? 60 Notes 62 3 Yann Breault: Belarus in the ‘new Cold War’: A promising mediator? 64 Mediating in the ‘new Cold War’ 65 Features of the emerging confrontation 65 Belarus’s opportunities in today’s ‘Cold War’ 68 Setting the table for a way out of the Ukraine crisis? 71 Belarus’s handling of the Ukraine war 71 Mediating in big power politics? 75 Notes 79 References 80 4 Serge Cipko: The crisis in Ukraine and theUkrainian diaspora: February–December 2014 83 The Ukrainian diaspora: a historical overview 84 Reaction to the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas: Ukrainians in the West 85 The Ukrainian diaspora in Russia 89 Conclusion 91 Notes 93 Part II: Military 98 5 Roger N. McDermott: Brothers disunited: Russia’s use of military power in Ukraine 100 Russia’s strategic and operational advantages on the eve of conflict 101 ‘Limited warfare’ in two distinctive theatres 103 1 The operation to restore Crimea to Russia 103 Moscow’s information operations 107 2 South-eastern Ukraine 109 Shadows on the wall: Russian military involvement in Donbas 114 Weapons and equipment 115 Russian military casualties in south-eastern Ukraine: Gruz 200 119 Russian military capabilities: Crimea and south-eastern Ukraine 122 Notes 124 6 Paul Robinson: Explaining the Ukrainian Army’s defeat in Donbass in 2014 131 Background 131 Russian support for the rebels 134 Personnel 135 Materiel 136 Direct military intervention 137 Superior motivation of rebel troops 138 Interior lines 140 Mistakes by the Ukrainian Army 141 Conclusion 145 Notes 145 Part III: Economic and social conditions 150 7 Vladimir Popov: Western economic sanctions and East–West economic orientation of Russia 152 Western sanctions and their impact 152 Geographical structure of Russian economic ties 159 Conclusions 164 Notes 164 8 Elena Maltseva: Lost and forgotten: The conflict through the eyes of the Donbass people 166 Introduction 166 From Maidan to Donbass: understanding the roots of the Donbass protests 166 The civilian population in the midst of a war: lost and forgotten 172 Notes 178 Part IV: Image and perception 184 9 J. L. Black: Setting the tone: Misinformation and disinformation from Kyiv, Moscow, Washington and Brussels in 2014 186 Choosing sides 186 Coup d’état in Kyiv 188 A coup of their own 189 The blame game 192 Isolating Russia 194 Demonization of Vladimir Putin 194 Competing disinformation 196 Russian forces ‘amassing’ on the Ukrainian border – or somewhere 201 The numbers game and information dissemination 203 Crimea as Kosovo 205 Growing anti-Americanism in Russia 206 Generating fear and loathing of Russia in Ukraine 206 The Battalions 207 Conclusion 211 Notes 211 10 Ivan Kurilla: Shaping new narratives: How new histories are created 218 Notes 223 11 Tim Nieguth: German attitudes towards Russia: The post-Maidan era in context 224 Germany in context 225 Dialogue and mediation 229 Historical continuities 234 Conclusion 238 Notes 239 12 Ivan Katchanovski: The Maidan massacre in Ukraine: A summary of analysis, evidenceand findings 243 Notes 247 Part V: Preference points 248 13 J. L. Black: Concluding remarks 250 Notes 257 14 Minsk II Agreement, 12 February 2015 258 Note 260 15 J. L. Black and Sergei Plekhanov: Chronology of Key Events to Minsk II 261 Appendix: Election results in Ukraine, 2010–14 303 Index 307