The Primacy of Regime Survival : State Fragility and Economic Destruction in Zimbabwe

This book analyses the past and ongoing decline of Zimbabwe under the rule of ZANU-PF, with a primary focus on the period 1997 to the present. In contrast to much existing literature on post-independence Zimbabwe which has focused on the political dimensions of Zimbabwe2019s fragility, this research highlights the economic aspects of Zimbabwe2019s regression flowing from prolonged mismanagement of the economy which has served to consolidate the rule of the country2019s political and economic elite. The Zimbabwean experience offers unique insights into the economic mensions of regime preservation. This book situates the Zimbabwe experience within the context of wider debates within the field of development studies, and the international community2019s response to such situations." Dedication 6 Preface 8 Acknowledgements 13 Contents 15 Abbreviations 17 1: Introduction 21 References 37 2: The Economics of State Fragility 38 The Search for Definitional Clarity 41 The Sovereignty Gap and State Effort 45 Economic Management, Poverty Reduction and State Fragility 47 Fragility and Bureaucratic Capacity 52 Market Strengthening, Poverty Reduction and State Legitimacy 55 References 61 3: Zimbabwe’s First Decade: Building the One-Party State and Controlling the Economy 63 The Revolutionary Vision 63 Economic Performance and Social Gains 68 Early Warning Signs of Macroeconomic Mismanagement 69 Slippages on the Political Governance Front 72 References 77 4: Regime Interests and the Failure of Economic Reform in the 1990s 79 ESAP (1991–95) and Its Shortcomings 82 After ESAP 88 Playing the Aid Game 92 The Watershed 95 The Crisis of Unfulfilled Expectations and the Rise of the Movement for Democratic Change 97 References 103 5: Regime Survival and the Fast Track Land Reform Programme 105 The Land Question at Lancaster House 106 A Divided Agricultural Sector and Resettlement Efforts from 1980 to 2000 107 The Collapse of the Commercial Sector 114 Collateral Damage: The Rule of Law 118 Collateral Damage: The Creation of Dead Capital 122 The Failure to Decongest Communal Areas 126 Economic Contagion 127 State Control and Fiscal Dominance 129 References 135 6: Regime Survival and the Attack on the Urban Poor 138 Zimbabwe’s Informal Sector in the Pre-crisis Period 139 Informality in the Crisis Decade: A Collapsing Formal Sector 143 Informality in the Crisis Decade: Operation Murambatsvina, State Control and Livelihoods Destruction 144 Murambatsvina, Market Destruction and Regime Survival 148 References 153 7: Regime Survival: Poverty Creation, Mass Migration and Elite Enrichment 156 Unemployment, Poverty and the Humanitarian Crisis 157 Scrambling for the Door and Hollowing Out National Institutions 164 Keeping Households Afloat: The Role of Diaspora Remittances 170 Replenishing the Trough: Success for Some Amidst Generalised Collapse 171 References 178 8: International Isolation and the Search for New Friends 181 Exiting the Development Mainstream 183 The Late 1990s and Souring Relations with the Bretton Woods Institutions 184 Stand-Off with the International Financial Institutions (IFIs) During the Crisis Years 186 Missing Out on Debt Relief 192 Western Bilateral Donors and Zimbabwe During the Crisis Decade 193 Pivoting East for Counterweights 198 References 207 9: Economic Meltdown and Elections 210 Hitting the Bottom: Economic Freefall and Its Human Costs 211 The Elections of 2008 and Its Aftermath 215 The Formation of the Inclusive Government (IG) 225 A Glimmer of Hope 230 References 239 10: The Challenges of Cohabitation 241 Early Gains 242 Reducing Fragility: Long-Term and Binding Constraints 246 Foreign Debt 248 Ghost Workers and the Securocrats 251 The Poisoned Chalice and ‘Zanufication’ of the MDC 253 References 259 11: Protecting the ZANU-PF State: Safeguarding Extractive Political Structures 261 The Opposition and GPA Structures 265 Electoral Reform 266 Transitional Justice 267 Security Sector Reform 269 Constitutional Reform 274 Strengthening ZANU-PF’s Ties with Traditional Leaders and War Veterans 290 ZANU-PF: Ensuring Continuity at the Top 292 References 296 12: Protecting the ZANU-PF State: Safeguarding Extractive Economic Institutions 298 Indigenisation 301 Diamonds and Parallel Revenue Flows 310 References 318 13: A Resurgent ZANU-PF 320 Rebuilding ZANU-PF Support and Rebooting the Rhetoric 320 MDC-T’s Loss of Resonance 324 MDC-T’s Estrangement From Allies 329 Warning Signs for the MDC-T 333 End of the Rebound and Continued Economic Fragility 338 The Delusions of Incumbency 341 References 346 14: The Transitions That Weren’t 348 ZANU-PF Triumphant 348 The MDC-T: Things Fall Apart 353 The Return to Economic Regression 356 The Frayed Social Contract: Corruption, Rule of Law and Privileging the Securocrats 367 The Return to a Humanitarian Emergency 371 Regime Priorities Amidst Growing Fragility 373 Regime Consolidation: The Old Guard Reasserts Control 381 References 390 Index 393 Front Matter ....Pages i-xxii Introduction (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 1-17 The Economics of State Fragility (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 19-43 Zimbabwe’s First Decade: Building the One-Party State and Controlling the Economy (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 45-60 Regime Interests and the Failure of Economic Reform in the 1990s (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 61-86 Regime Survival and the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 87-119 Regime Survival and the Attack on the Urban Poor (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 121-138 Regime Survival: Poverty Creation, Mass Migration and Elite Enrichment (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 139-163 International Isolation and the Search for New Friends (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 165-193 Economic Meltdown and Elections (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 195-225 The Challenges of Cohabitation (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 227-246 Protecting the ZANU-PF State: Safeguarding Extractive Political Structures (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 247-283 Protecting the ZANU-PF State: Safeguarding Extractive Economic Institutions (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 285-306 A Resurgent ZANU-PF (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 307-334 The Transitions That Weren’t (Mark Simpson, Tony Hawkins)....Pages 335-379 Back Matter ....Pages 381-391 Annotation This volume addresses the economic and political history of post-independence Zimbabwe with a primary focus on the period 1997 to the present time. The authors focus on the causes of the country's economic collapse, and detail the policies and processes that drove it. They provide an analysis of the past and on-going decline of Zimbabwe, under the rule of Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF. In contrast to much existing literature on post-independence and crisis Zimbabwe, which has focused on the political dimensions of Zimbabwe's fragility, this research highlights the economic aspects of Zimbabwe's regression and worsening state fragility flowing from prolonged mismanagement of the economy that has served to consolidate the rule of the country's political and economic elite