The Politics of Pact-Making: Hungary's Negotiated Transition to Democracy in Comparative Perspective (Political Evolution and Institutional Change)

authoritarianism which have plagued similar cases of democratization elsewhere. The inability of the MSZMP to cement its advantages in the roundtable talks-despite its best efforts-became the puzzle motivating the dissertation that grew into this book.The answer to this puzzle lay in Haraszti's prophetic statement. Not only did he prove to be right about the transition in Hungary, but it was the fact of his belief (shared by fellow dissidents) back in 1988 that made him right. Haraszti and his fellow dissidents in the Alliance of Free Democrats, joined by an Alliance of Young Democrats, believed the regime was weak and would be forced to negotiate with the opposition.The regime was so weak, in fact, that it would be forced to do more giving than taking in the give and take of pactmaking.As a result the Free Democrats and the Young Democrats advocated an intransigent stance vis-à-vis the regime at the roundtable. The dissidents' more cautious allies did not share these beliefs.They believed the regime remained strong, strong enough that it was the opposition who would be doing the giving and the regime the taking. And while they consequently argued for a more conciliatory approach, it was the Free Democrats and the Young Democrats who dominated the united opposition and its negotiating strategies with the MSZMP. The Aristotelian optimism of the dissidents, the confidence that the opposition was the stronger force and would suffer no harm from pushing the regime was well-placed.The MSZMP gave, the opposition took, and the result was a pact very different from the tutelary and guardian democracies negotiated elsewhere during the third wave of democratization. And it was very different from the pact that would have emerged had conciliatory negotiators from the cautious parties and not the dissidents such as Haraszti dominated the opposition. This book is an attempt to document and explain the relatively rare outcome in Hungary and compare it to three other, progressively less positive, dynamics in South Africa, Poland, and China. I do so by embracing Elster's (1999, 415) call for a "historical psychology" and adopting a hermeneutic perspective on rational strategic action, the interpretation of human actions via an examination of the agent's subjective beliefs and values. This hermeneutics of rational choice reconstructs the cognitive maps and beliefs of the Hungarian, South African, Polish, and (potential) Chinese pact-makers that make their actions during pact-making intelligible and rational. It is only by making pact-making intelligible and rational that we understand why negotiated transitions to democracy unfold the way they do, why a new democracy has the institutions it does, and how and why an opposition is able to prevent an authoritarian regime from cementing its power beyond the transition. ## Preface and Acknowledgments xii Preface and Acknowledgments xiii demanding standards, the dissertation upon which this book is based would have been vastly inferior to its final state. I am grateful for our many conversations and his willingness to read my work quickly and to meet weekly to discuss it. I know I also benefited greatly from many discussions with colleagues from the Department of Social Sciences and History at Fairleigh Dickinson University as well as long conversations with Ken Benoit. He helped me understand the intricacies of the Hungarian electoral law and made my stay in Budapest much more fun than it otherwise would have been. Cover 1 Contents 8 List of Figures and Tables 10 Abbreviations 11 Preface and Acknowledgments 12 Introduction 16 Goals 17 The Basic Argument 18 Overview 21 One: Pact-Making, Bargaining, and Institutional Choice 25 The Empirical Puzzle 26 A Framework for Analysis: Pacts, Rules, and Institutions 33 Pact-making, Bargaining, and Risk-taking 34 Uncertainty and Beliefs, Mental Models and Transition Players 42 A Model of Pact-Making 45 Two: Pact-Making in Hungary: The 1989 Hungarian Roundtable Talks 52 Dissidents and Populists, Reformers and Conservatives 53 Pact-Making about Pact-Making 64 Negotiating Democracy: The National Roundtable Talks 78 Summary 98 Three: Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Opposition Intransigence: The Presidency 100 An MSZMP Presidency 101 The Opposition on the Presidency 103 The Negotiated Design of Presidential Powers 112 Election Rules 120 Summary 126 Four: From Perverse Checks and Balances to Guardian of the Constitution: The Constitutional Court 130 The MSZMP's Strategy: Institutionalizing a Perverse Checks and Balances 131 The Opposition and the Constitutional Court 139 Bargaining Over the Constitutional Court 146 Summary 151 Five: Comparative Perspectives: South Africa, Poland, and China 154 South Africa, 1990–1994: From Risk-taking to Risk-averse Bargaining Strategies 154 Poland, 1989: A Risk-averse Opposition and Risk-taking Softliners 161 China, 1989: A Risk-taking Opposition and a Risk-taking Regime 168 Summary 177 Conclusion 180 Counterfactual Pact-Making in Hungary 181 Pact-making, Institutional Choice, and Rational Action 188 Appendix: Sources and Data 194 List of Interviews 195 Notes 196 References 213 Index 224 A 224 B 224 C 224 D 225 E 225 F 226 G 226 H 226 I 227 J 227 K 227 L 227 M 228 N 229 O 229 P 229 Q 230 R 230 S 231 T 231 U 231 V 232 W 232 Y 232 Z 232 Front Matter....Pages i-xiv Introduction....Pages 1-9 Pact-Making, Bargaining, and Institutional Choice....Pages 10-36 Pact-Making in Hungary: The 1989 Hungarian Roundtable Talks....Pages 37-84 Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Opposition Intransigence: The Presidency....Pages 85-114 From Perverse Checks and Balances to Guardian of the Constitution: The Constitutional Court....Pages 115-138 Comparative Perspectives: South Africa, Poland, and China....Pages 139-164 Conclusion....Pages 165-178 Back Matter....Pages 179-217

contributing To The Literature On Democratic Transitions And With A Focus On Institutional Bargaining, In This Fascinating Book The Hungarian Case Is Contrasted With Those Of Poland, South Africa And China To Explore The Contours Of What Bargaining Strategies Affect Outcomes. The Result Is Increased Understanding Of How Actors And Their Interaction Can Make Peaceful Transitions Are Possible.

Contributing to the literature on democratic transitions and with a focus on institutional bargaining, in this fascinating book the Hungarian case is contrasted with those of Poland, South Africa and China to explore the contours of what bargaining strategies affect outcomes. The result is an increased understanding of how actors and their interaction can make peaceful transition possible. "Contributing to the literature on democratic transitions with a focus on institutional bargaining, this book contrasts the Hungarian case with those of Poland, South Africa, and China to explore the contours of how bargaining strategies affect outcomes. The result is increased understanding of how actors and their interaction make peaceful transitions possible."--Jacket