The Political Economy of Sino–South African Trade and Regional Competition (International Political Economy Series)

This book comparatively examines the China–South Africa trade relationship over three decades through the prism of four other relationships South Africa has with states that have been China’s most contentious neighbours in the Indo-Pacific (India, Japan, Taiwan and the USA). Asia is widely expected to be the new economic centre of gravity in international relations, particularly for trade. Yet despite the story of growth for both it and its neighbours, China ranks above all these countries in terms of trade partnership with South Africa and a majority of states across the globe. This poses a puzzle answerable only through in-depth analysis. In this way, this pathbreaking new book uses quantitative data to test commonly held assumptions about the ‘new scramble for Africa’ and shines a light on the driving forces, interests and sources of agency in South Africa’s trade and foreign policies over the past three decades. The findings allow for the deduction of general patterns applicableto South Africa and peer economies, some of whom are benchmarked throughout the book for comparative insights. About This Book 6 Contents 8 Chronology of Key Events 9 Abbreviations and Note on Currency 13 Abbreviations 13 Note on Currency 14 List of Figures 15 List of Tables 18 1 Introduction: Differentiated Engagement 20 1.1 Literature: Portrait of the Global Economy’s New Center of Gravity 23 China’s Demographic Challenge 23 The “Japanese Scenario”: What Worries China 23 The Problem with the Two-Child Policy 23 The Global Implications of Asia’s Rise 23 Beijing Over Others: The Pre-Eminence of China in South African Foreign and Trade Policies 23 Post-1994 South Africa’s Foreign and Trade Policies 23 South Africa and the Emerging World 23 1.2 Summary and Chapter Outline 49 References 51 2 China and the Contemporary Asian Balance 54 2.1 Introduction 54 2.2 China’s Foreign Policy Toolkit 56 2.3 China’s Regional Rivalries 62 Taiwan 62 India and Japan 62 Territorial Disputes 62 The United States 62 Prospects: Agreeing to Disagree? 62 Regional Responsibility and Trade—The Other Achilles’ Heels? 62 The Nuclear Factor 62 The Limits of Coalition 62 Relevance to Relations with South Africa 62 References 83 3 Taiwan: The International Political Economy of the One China Policy 86 3.1 Background 88 3.2 South Africa Between China and Taiwan: A Review 91 3.3 Methodology 97 3.4 Results 98 3.5 Analysis 102 3.6 Conclusion 106 References 107 4 Japan: Economically Hot, Politically Cold 108 4.1 Introduction 108 4.2 Background 110 4.3 Literature Review: China and Japan’s Relations with Africa 111 4.4 Methodology 115 Variables 115 Caveats 115 4.5 Case Study Analyses 119 Dataset Description 119 Country-Specific Data: South Africa 119 Country-Specific Data: Kenya 119 Country-Specific Data: Uganda 119 4.6 Analysis of Findings 125 A Non-zero Sum Game: General Findings Discussed 125 4.7 Conclusion 130 References 130 5 India: Between Two Southern Powers 132 5.1 Introduction 132 5.2 Literature Review 134 Perceptions of Competition Between China and India 134 5.3 Methodology 137 Hypotheses 137 5.4 Results 138 5.5 Analysis 139 Assessing the Balance of Trade 139 A Test of Inverse Correlations 139 5.6 Conclusion 145 References 147 6 United States: An Imaginary Scramble for Markets? 149 6.1 Introduction 149 6.2 Literature Review 152 A New Scramble for Africa? 152 South Africa and Kenya: Between the US and China? 152 6.3 Methodology 160 Variables 160 Caveats 160 6.4 Case Study Analyses 163 Dataset Description 163 Country-Specific Data: South Africa 163 Country-Specific Data: Kenya 163 6.5 Analysis of Findings 169 General Findings Discussed 169 6.6 Conclusion 174 References 174 7 The European Union: Brexit Aftermaths and Divergent Futures 176 7.1 Introduction 176 7.2 Literature 179 7.3 Methods 181 Caveats 181 7.4 Data 183 7.5 Analysis 185 Electrical Machinery 185 Ceramic Products 185 Total Exports 185 7.6 Discussion: Findings and Implications 186 7.7 Conclusion 189 References 190 8 The Politics and Future of Differentiated Engagement 193 8.1 Theoretical Implications 194 8.2 Policy Implications 194 8.3 Policy Observations 199 References 205 Appendices 206 Appendix A: A Simple Game Theory Model of Asia–Pacific Competition and Its Implications for South Africa 206 Appendix B: Historical Evolution of South African Rand per US Dollar, 1970/01/01 to 2018/12/31 208 Bibliography 209 Index 225 This book comparatively examines the China-South Africa trade relationship over three decades through the prism of four other relationships South Africa has with states that have been China's most contentious neighbours in the Indo-Pacific (India, Japan, Taiwan and the USA). Asia is widely expected to be the new economic centre of gravity in international relations, particularly for trade. Yet despite the story of growth for both it and its neighbours, China ranks above all these countries in terms of trade partnership with South Africa and a majority of states across the globe. This poses a puzzle answerable only through in-depth analysis. In this way, this pathbreaking new book uses quantitative data to test commonly held assumptions about the 'new scramble for Africa' and shines a light on the driving forces, interests and sources of agency in South Africa's trade and foreign policies over the past three decades. The findings allow for the deduction of general patterns applicable to South Africa and peer economies, some of whom are benchmarked throughout the book for comparative insights