The Political Economy of Sino–South African Trade and Regional Competition

This book comparatively examines the China-South Africa trade relationship over three decades through the prism of four other relationships South Africa has with states that have been China's most contentious neighbours in the Indo-Pacific (India, Japan, Taiwan and the USA). Asia is widely expected to be the new economic centre of gravity in international relations, particularly for trade. Yet despite the story of growth for both it and its neighbours, China ranks above all these countries in terms of trade partnership with South Africa and a majority of states across the globe. This poses a puzzle answerable only through in-depth analysis. In this way, this pathbreaking new book uses quantitative data to test commonly held assumptions about the 'new scramble for Africa' and shines a light on the driving forces, interests and sources of agency in South Africa's trade and foreign policies over the past three decades. The findings allow for the deduction of general patterns applicable to South Africa and peer economies, some of whom are benchmarked throughout the book for comparative insights. Bhaso Ndzendze is Senior Lecturer and Head of Department at the University of Johannesburg (UJ) Department of Politics and International Relations. His research on China-Africa relations has appeared in numerous leading journals and books. He was formerly Research Director at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at UJ About This Book Contents Chronology of Key Events Abbreviations and Note on Currency Abbreviations Note on Currency List of Figures List of Tables 1 Introduction: Differentiated Engagement 1.1 Literature: Portrait of the Global Economy’s New Center of Gravity China’s Demographic Challenge The “Japanese Scenario”: What Worries China The Problem with the Two-Child Policy The Global Implications of Asia’s Rise Beijing Over Others: The Pre-Eminence of China in South African Foreign and Trade Policies Post-1994 South Africa’s Foreign and Trade Policies South Africa and the Emerging World 1.2 Summary and Chapter Outline References 2 China and the Contemporary Asian Balance 2.1 Introduction 2.2 China’s Foreign Policy Toolkit 2.3 China’s Regional Rivalries Taiwan India and Japan Territorial Disputes The United States Prospects: Agreeing to Disagree? Regional Responsibility and Trade—The Other Achilles’ Heels? The Nuclear Factor The Limits of Coalition Relevance to Relations with South Africa References 3 Taiwan: The International Political Economy of the One China Policy 3.1 Background 3.2 South Africa Between China and Taiwan: A Review 3.3 Methodology 3.4 Results 3.5 Analysis 3.6 Conclusion References 4 Japan: Economically Hot, Politically Cold 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Background 4.3 Literature Review: China and Japan’s Relations with Africa 4.4 Methodology Variables Caveats 4.5 Case Study Analyses Dataset Description Country-Specific Data: South Africa Country-Specific Data: Kenya Country-Specific Data: Uganda 4.6 Analysis of Findings A Non-zero Sum Game: General Findings Discussed 4.7 Conclusion References 5 India: Between Two Southern Powers 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Literature Review Perceptions of Competition Between China and India 5.3 Methodology Hypotheses 5.4 Results 5.5 Analysis Assessing the Balance of Trade A Test of Inverse Correlations 5.6 Conclusion References 6 United States: An Imaginary Scramble for Markets? 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Literature Review A New Scramble for Africa? South Africa and Kenya: Between the US and China? 6.3 Methodology Variables Caveats 6.4 Case Study Analyses Dataset Description Country-Specific Data: South Africa Country-Specific Data: Kenya 6.5 Analysis of Findings General Findings Discussed 6.6 Conclusion References 7 The European Union: Brexit Aftermaths and Divergent Futures 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Literature 7.3 Methods Caveats 7.4 Data 7.5 Analysis Electrical Machinery Ceramic Products Total Exports 7.6 Discussion: Findings and Implications 7.7 Conclusion References 8 The Politics and Future of Differentiated Engagement 8.1 Theoretical Implications 8.2 Policy Implications 8.3 Policy Observations References Appendices Appendix A: A Simple Game Theory Model of Asia–Pacific Competition and Its Implications for South Africa Appendix B: Historical Evolution of South African Rand per US Dollar, 1970/01/01 to 2018/12/31 Bibliography Index