The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting (Palgrave Studies in Public Debt, Spending, and Revenue)

This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.-- Provided by publisher Front Matter ....Pages i-xix Introduction (Daniel Williams, Thad Calabrese)....Pages 1-8 Front Matter ....Pages 9-9 Macroeconomic Theory and Forecasting (Gerald D. Cohen)....Pages 11-36 Evaluating Government Budget Forecasts (Neil R. Ericsson, Andrew B. Martinez)....Pages 37-69 Budget Preparation and Forecasting in the Federal Republic of Germany (Dörte Busch, Wolfgang Strehl)....Pages 71-87 Revenue Forecasting in Low-Income and Developing Countries: Biases and Potential Remedies (Marco Cangiano, Rahul Pathak)....Pages 89-114 The Reliability of Long-Run Budget Projections (Rudolph Penner)....Pages 115-132 CBO Updated Forecasts: Do a Few Months Matter? (James W. Douglas, Ringa Raudla)....Pages 133-152 Front Matter ....Pages 153-153 State Revenue Forecasting Practices: Accuracy, Transparency, and Political Participation (Emily Franklin, Carolyn Bourdeaux, Alex Hathaway)....Pages 155-175 Forecasting Post-Crisis Virginia Tax Revenue (Melissa McShea, Joseph Cordes)....Pages 177-200 Bias Associated with Centrally Budgeted Expenditure Forecasts (Thad Calabrese, Daniel Williams)....Pages 201-215 Excessive Revenue Underforecasting: Evidence and Implications from New York City’s Property Tax (Geoffrey Propheter)....Pages 217-240 Small Local Government Revenue Forecasting (Vincent Reitano)....Pages 241-256 Current Midyear Municipal Budget Forecast Accuracy (Daniel Williams, Thad Calabrese)....Pages 257-272 Front Matter ....Pages 273-273 Using Fiscal Indicator Systems to Predict Municipal Bankruptcies (Jonathan B. Justice, Marc Fudge, Helisse Levine, David D. Bird, Muhammad Naveed Iftikhar)....Pages 275-302 School District Enrollment Projections and Budget Forecasting (Peter Jones, Cole Rakow, Vincent Reitano)....Pages 303-323 Budget Uncertainty and the Quality of Nonprofit Charter School Enrollment Projections (Todd L. Ely)....Pages 325-344 Forecasting for Prisons and Jails (Bruce D. McDonald III, J. Winn Decker, Matthew James Hunt)....Pages 345-359 Government and Nonprofit Personnel Forecasting (Vincent Reitano)....Pages 361-376 Forecast Bias and Capital Reserves Accumulation (Vincent Reitano, Peter Jones, Nathan Barrett, Jacob Fowles)....Pages 377-396 Consensus Forecasting (J. Winn Decker, Bruce D. McDonald III)....Pages 397-412 Ensemble Forecasting (Kenneth A. Kriz)....Pages 413-426 Front Matter ....Pages 427-427 Conclusion (Daniel Williams, Thad Calabrese)....Pages 429-435 Back Matter ....Pages 437-441