The Origins of the Syrian Conflict: Domestic Factors and Early Trajectory

Most observers did not expect the Arab spring to spread to Syria, for a number of seemingly good reasons. Yet, with amazing rapidity, massive and unprecedented anti-regime mobilization took place, which put the regime very much on the defensive; what began as the Syrian Uprising in March 2011 has evolved into one of the world's most damaging and protracted conflicts. Despite over six years having passed since the inception of the Syrian Uprising, this phenomenon remains difficult to fully grasp, both in terms of underlying forces and long-term implications.This book presents a snapshot of how the Uprising developed in roughly the first two to three years (2011–2013) and addresses key questions regarding the domestic origins of the Uprising and its early trajectory. Firstly, what were the causes of the conflict, both in terms of structure (contradictions and crisis within the pre-Uprising order) and agency (choices of the actors)? Why did the Uprising not lead to democratization and instead descend into violent civil war with a sectarian dimension? With all 19 chapters addressing an aspect of the Uprising, the book focuses on internal dynamics, whilst a subsequent volume will look at the international dimension of the Uprising. Taking an innovative and interdisciplinary approach that seeks to capture the full complexity of the phenomenon, this book contributes significantly to our understanding of the Syrian conflict, and will therefore be a valuable resource for anyone studying Middle Eastern Politics. Cover Half Title Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents List of tables Notes on contributors Foreword 1. Introduction: Origins of the Syrian Uprising: From structure to agency Why the Asad regime was so vulnerable to the Uprising Explaining anti-regime mobilization Why peaceful protests did not lead to democratic transition Plan of the book Bibliography 2. The tragedy of Ba’thist state-building State-building in Syria Domination and resistance as state-building: the rise of the Ba’th The ironies of regime consolidation and erosion The tragic conclusion to Ba’thist state-building Note Bibliography 3. The power of ‘sultanism’: Why Syria’s non-violent protests did not lead to a democratic transition Theory Background Regime characteristics deterring a democratic transition in Syria Conclusion Notes Bibliography 4. The dynamics of power in Syria: Generalized corruption and sectarianism Neo-patrimonial leadership Rule by family and sect Rule through the security services Controlling the army: Sect and inter-sectarian divisions Economic sleaze and administrative dysfunction Conclusion Notes Bibliography 5. The Uprising and the economic interests of the Syrian military–mercantile complex Introduction Socioeconomic background of the military The military’s economic role and interests Economic interest as a loyalty-factor during the Uprising The Syrian military after the Uprising Conclusion Notes Bibliography 6. Revisiting the political economy of the Syrian Uprising Global crises and local outcomes Effects of the 2008–09 global financial crisis Syria weathers the crisis External crises and internal challenges in Syria Conclusion References 7. Tutelary authoritarianism and the shifts between secularism and Islam in Syria Introduction Political contestation during the time of Hafiz al-Asad Continuity and Bashar al-Asad’s new era: après moi, le déluge The secular threat and the March 2011 Uprising Conclusion Bibliography 8. Organizationally secular: Damascene Islamist movements and the Syrian Uprising Conceptual framework Analytic narrative: The Kaftariyya, and the Qubaysiyyat Organizational analysis Prelude to the Uprising: Attacking the organizational setup of the ‘Ulama In the Uprising Bibliography 9. Bashar’s fateful decision Caught unawares? To speech or not to speech A speech not worth waiting for No going back Notes 10. Syria’s Alawis: Structure, perception and agency in the Syrian security dilemma Introduction Parsing the ethnic-religious security dilemma The structure of Alawite insecurity Intangible Alawite insecurities Agents of Alawite insecurity Conclusion Bibliography 11. Emergence of the political voice of Syria’s civil society: The non-violent movements of the Syrian Uprising Introduction The case of Syrian civil society Syria’s civil society post-Uprising The imagery and image of the non-violent movements Conclusion: The emergence of the political voice of Syria’s civil society Notes Bibliography 12. Demands for dignity and the Syrian Uprising Introduction Linguistic notes on karama (dignity) Beginnings: dignity in resistance Syria’s dignity strikes Arming the revolution Conclusion Notes Bibliography 13. Mediating the Syrian revolt: How new media technologies change the development of social movements and conflicts Introduction Phase 1. The spark of the Uprising and the “syndrome of Hama”: the Facebook and YouTube effects Phase 2. From Uprising to armed conflict, from citizen journalism to a revival of traditional media Phase 3. Media professionalisation amidst war stagnation Conclusion Notes Bibliography 14. Unblurring ambiguities: Assessing the impact of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in the Syrian revolution Contradicting narratives on SMB early activities Into the political sphere: ideology, organization, alliances Humanitarian campaigns Another open front: the militarization of the revolution Conclusion Notes Bibliography 15. Sectarianism and the battle of narratives in the context of the Syrian Uprising Sectarianism as a discourse of power The Syrian regime’s sectarian strategy The anti-sectarian discourse of the opposition The sectarian narrative of the Salafi-Jihadist groups The emergence of a sectarian master narrative Conclusion Notes Bibliography 16. Sunni/Alawi identity clashes during the Syrian Uprising: A continuous reproduction? The identity puzzle in Syria (1946–2011) Orchestrating Sunni and Alawite identity clashes from above Shaping Sunni identity; Sufism, Salafism and Salafi-Jihadism The Shiite axis vs. the Sunni bloc: reproducing Sunni and Alawi identities from beyond the Syrian borders Sunni identity vs. Alawi identity: the reproduction from below Conclusion Notes Bibliography 17. The rise of Syrian Salafism: From denial to recognition Introduction Defining Salafism and its various manifestations Syrian Salafism before the revolution The Syrian revolution and factors leading to the spread of Salafism The reality of Syrian Salafism through the revolution The proliferation of Salafist groups in Syria Conclusion: Syrian Salafism from denial to recognition Notes Bibliography 18. From a window in Jaramana: Imperial sectarianism and the impact of war on a Druze neighbourhood in Syria Introduction From a window in Jaramana Methodology A point of no-return: The event of sectarian violence in Jaramana Imperial sectarianism: State ideology and sectarianism in pre-war Syria Jaramana and its Druze residents since 2011 Conclusion: Minorities and sectarianism from a window in Jaramana Notes Bibliography 19. The Left in the Syrian Uprising Introduction: The Left’s predicament The loyalists: The Ba’th Party and the National Progressive Front The traditional Left opposition: The National Coordination Bureau for the Forces of Democratic Change (NCB) The centrists: The Front for Liberation and Change The Left in the grassroots protest movement Conclusion Notes Bibliography 20. Political incongruity between the Kurds and the ‘opposition’ in the Syrian Uprising Introduction From Syria’s formation to Ba’th Party rule: the exclusion of Kurdish identity Turning points The Kurdish opposition in the Syrian Uprising Disagreements between the KNC and the Syrian opposition The PYD: Its ‘third way’ policy and the Syrian opposition Conclusion Bibliography 21. Conclusion: The early trajectory of the Syrian Uprising: From agency to structure Why did anti-regime mass mobilization lead to stalemate rather than revolution or regime collapse? Why did peaceful protest turn into armed civil war, framed in sectarian terms, that has proved intractable? Outcomes of competitive regime formation Neglected nuances and the horizons for future scholarship References Index Most observers did not expect the Arab spring to spread to Syria, for a number of seemingly good reasons. Yet, with amazing rapidity, massive and unprecedented anti-regime mobilization took place, which put the regime very much on the defensive; what began as the Syrian Uprising in March 2011 has evolved into one of the world's most damaging and protracted conflicts. Despite nearly six years having passed since the inception of the Syrian Uprising, this phenomenon remains difficult to fully grasp, both in terms of underlying forces and long-term implications. This book presents a snapshot of how the uprising developed in roughly the first two to three years (2011-2013) and addresses key questions regarding the domestic origins of the uprising and its early trajectory. Firstly, what were the causes of the conflict, both in terms of structure (contradictions and crisis within the pre-uprising order) and agency (choices of the actors)? Why did the uprising not lead to democratization and instead descended into violent civil war with a sectarian dimension? With all 19 chapters addressing an aspect of the uprising, the book focuses on internal dynamics, whilst a subsequent volume will look at the international dimension of the uprising. Taking an innovative and interdisciplinary approach that seeks to capture the full complexity of the phenomenon, this book contributes significantly to our understanding of the Syrian conflict, and will therefore be a valuable resource for anyone studying Middle Eastern Politics.