The Next Great War?: The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict (Belfer Center Studies in International Security)

**Experts consider how the lessons of World War I can help prevent U.S.-China conflict.**A century ago, Europe's diplomats mismanaged the crisis triggered by the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and the continent plunged into World War I, which killed millions, toppled dynasties, and destroyed empires. Today, as the hundredth anniversary of the Great War prompts renewed debate about the war's causes, scholars and policy experts are also considering the parallels between the present international system and the world of 1914. Are China and the United States fated to follow in the footsteps of previous great power rivals? Will today's alliances drag countries into tomorrow's wars? Can leaders manage power relationships peacefully? Or will East Asia's territorial and maritime disputes trigger a larger conflict, just as rivalries in the Balkans did in 1914?In__The Next Great War?__, experts reconsider the causes of World War I and explore whether the great powers of the twenty-first century can avoid the mistakes of Europe's statesmen in 1914 and prevent another catastrophic conflict. They find differences as well as similarities between today's world and the world of 1914--but conclude that only a deep understanding of those differences and early action to bring great powers together will likely enable the United States and China to avoid a great war.**Contributors**Alan Alexandroff, Graham Allison, Richard N. Cooper, Charles S. Maier, Steven E. Miller, Joseph S. Nye Jr., T. G. Otte, David K. Richards, Richard N. Rosecrance, Kevin Rudd, Jack Snyder, Etel Solingen, Arthur A. Stein, Stephen Van Evera A Century Ago, Europe's Diplomats Mismanaged The Crisis Triggered By The Murder Of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Of Austria And The Continent Plunged Into World War I, Which Killed Millions, Toppled Dynasties, And Destroyed Empires. Today, As The Hundredth Anniversary Of The Great War Prompts Renewed Debate About The War's Causes, Scholars And Policy Experts Are Also Considering The Parallels Between The Present International System And The World Of 1914. Are China And The United States Fated To Follow In The Footsteps Of Previous Great Power Rivals? Will Today's Alliances Drag Countries Into Tomorrow's Wars? Can Leaders Manage Power Relationships Peacefully? Or Will East Asia's Territorial And Maritime Disputes Trigger A Larger Conflict, Just As Rivalries In The Balkans Did In 1914? In The Next Great War?, Experts Reconsider The Causes Of World War I And Explore Whether The Great Powers Of The Twenty-first Century Can Avoid The Mistakes Of Europe's Statesmen In 1914 And Prevent Another Catastrophic Conflict. They Find Differences As Well As Similarities Between Today's World And The World Of 1914 -- But Conclude That Only A Deep Understanding Of Those Differences And Early Action To Bring Great Powers Together Will Likely Enable The United States And China To Avoid A Great War. --provided By Publisher. Introduction : The Sarajevo Centenary, 1914 And The Rise Of China / Steven E. Miller -- Before The War : Three Styles Of Diplomacy / Alan Alexandroff -- Respites Or Resolutions? : Recurring Crises And The Origins Of War / Arthur A. Stein -- Better Now Than Later : The Paradox Of 1914 As Everyone's Favored Year For War / Jack Snyder -- Allies, Overbalance, And War / Richard N. Rosecrance -- Economic Interdependence And War / Richard N. Cooper -- The Thucydides Trap / Graham Allison -- Thucydides Dethroned : Historical Differences That Weaken The Peloponnesian Analogy / David K. Richards -- Thucydides, Alliance Politics, And Great Power Conflict / Charles S. Maier -- War, Revolution, And The Uncertain Primacy Of Domestic Politics / T.g. Otte -- Domestic Coalitions, Internationalization, And War : Then And Now / Etel Solingen -- European Militaries And The Origins Of World War I / Stephen Van Evera -- Inevitability And War / Joseph S. Nye Jr. -- Lessons From Europe 1914 For Asia 2014 : Reflections On The Centenary Of The Outbreak Of World War I / Kevin Rudd -- Contingency As A Cause (or Little Things Mean A Lot) / Richard N. Rosecrance. Edited By Richard Rosecrance And Steven E. Miller. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Experts consider how the lessons of World War I can help prevent U.S.-China conflict. A century ago, Europe's diplomats mismanaged the crisis triggered by the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and the continent plunged into World War I, which killed millions, toppled dynasties, and destroyed empires. Today, as the hundredth anniversary of the Great War prompts renewed debate about the war's causes, scholars and policy experts are also considering the parallels between the present international system and the world of 1914. Are China and the United States fated to follow in the footsteps of previous great power rivals? Will today's alliances drag countries into tomorrow's wars? Can leaders manage power relationships peacefully? Or will East Asia's territorial and maritime disputes trigger a larger conflict, just as rivalries in the Balkans did in 1914? In The Next Great War? , experts reconsider the causes of World War I and explore whether the great powers of the twenty-first century can avoid the mistakes of Europe's statesmen in 1914 and prevent another catastrophic conflict. They find differences as well as similarities between today's world and the world of 1914--but conclude that only a deep understanding of those differences and early action to bring great powers together will likely enable the United States and China to avoid a great war. Contributors Alan Alexandroff, Graham Allison, Richard N. Cooper, Charles S. Maier, Steven E. Miller, Joseph S. Nye Jr., T. G. Otte, David K. Richards, Richard N. Rosecrance, Kevin Rudd, Jack Snyder, Etel Solingen, Arthur A. Stein, Stephen Van Evera A century ago, Europe's diplomats mismanaged the crisis triggered by the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, plunging the continent into World War I which killed millions, toppled dynasties, and destroyed empires. Today as the hundredth anniversary of the Great War prompts renewed debate about the war's causes, scholars and policy-makers are also considering the parallels between the present international system and the system of 1914. Are China and the United States fated to follow in the footsteps of previous Great Power rivals? Will today's alliances drag countries into tomorrow's wars? This book concludes that only a deep understanding of the causes of previous war and early action to bring great powers together would enable the United States and China to avoid a great war