دههٔ آینده: دنیای آینده چگونه خواهد بود

From Publishers Weekly Whereas Friedman's last book, The Next 100 Years, focused on "the impersonal forces that shape history in the long run," now the geopolitical intelligence expert examines the impact of current decision making, especially of the United States government, on the world. Friedman suggests that problems currently affecting us significantly may not actually matter in the long run. He compares the position of the United States today to that of Britain in 1910, and argues that the U.S. is an "unintended empire" and that its president is a "global emperor," in part due to the size of the country's economy. Throughout, Friedman argues for an end to the reluctance, as he sees it, to entangle the country in global affairs. He examines the past strategies of Presidents Bush and Clinton and stresses what President Obama and his successor must do about terrorism and technology to foster relations with the Middle East, Europe, the Western Pacific, Latin America, Africa, Israel, Iran, and Russia. When it comes to Bush and Obama he doesn't play favorites, criticizing their policies and comparing them with presidents who possessed more Machiavellian attributes, in his view. While his ideas are well-researched and compelling, Friedman makes the occasional leap that casual readers might find confusing. (c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved. Review PRAISE FOR GEORGE FRIEDMAN: “There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8-Ball.? —_New York Times Magazine_ Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, the geopolitical research firm that’s been called “the civilian CIA”. He puts his geopolitical knowledge to work projecting what the 2010’s are likely to bring to the world stage. He does not claim to have a gift of prophecy, or any unique insight; he is applying his knowledge of human political behavior and the forces that move nations. Countries do not always act like persons, and leaders are sometimes compelled by necessity to act in ways that they would prefer not to act. Taking the world by regions, Friedman outlines what he sees are the most likely next steps in the always-in-motion world of international relations. Nations always try to act, he says, in ways that benefit what they see as their best self-interest. The trouble comes when a nation cannot decide within itself what its best self-interest is. Speaking broadly, this is explains the instability we see and will continue to see in many nations. Libya, for example, is a nation composed of numerous ethnic and religious sub-groups with goals that are contradictory to one another. Friedman, and Stratfor, tries to take what can be called a pragmatic view of politics. They never disregard moral considerations, but these must take second place to the facts of human behavior and what works to achieve a nation’s goals. Or perhaps it is better to say that this is how they interpret the viewpoint of nations and their leaders. Even here in America, our leaders may want to act morally, but according to Friedman, it is not always possible for them to do so. How correct Friedman is in his assessment of the future we will see when it gets here. In the present, this book is an easy read, full of information that helps the reader understand what is driving national behavior in places all over the world. The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders.

The next ten years will be a time of massive transition. The wars in the Islamic world will be subsiding, and terrorism will become something we learn to live with. China will be encountering its crisis. We will be moving from a time when financial crises dominate the world to a time when labor shortages will begin to dominate. The new century will be taking shape in the next decade.

In The Next Decade, George Friedman offers readers a pro­vocative and endlessly fascinating prognosis for the immedi­ate future. Using Machiavelli’s The Prince as a model, Friedman focuses on the world’s leaders—particularly the American president—and with his trusted geopolitical insight analyzes the complex chess game they will all have to play. The book also asks how to be a good president in a decade of extraordinary challenge, and puts the world’s leaders under a microscope to explain how they will arrive at the decisions they will make—and the consequences these actions will have for us all.

From the Hardcover edition.

"The next ten years will be a time of massive transition. The wars in the Islamic world will be subsiding, and terrorism will become something we learn to live with. China will be encountering its crisis. We will be moving from a time when financial crises dominate the world to a time when labor shortages will begin to dominate. The new century will be taking shape in the next decade. In The Next Decade, George Friedman offers readers a provocative and endlessly fascinating prognosis for the immediate future. Using Machiavelli's The Prince as a model, Friedman focuses on the world's leaders - particularly the American president - and with his trusted geopolitical insight analyzes the complex chess game they will all have to play. The book also asks how to be a good president in a decade of extraordinary challenge, and puts the world's leaders under a microscope to explain how they will arrive at the decisions they will make - and the consequences these actions will have for us all." -- Book Jacket Rebalancing America The unintended empire Republic, empire, and the Machiavellian president The financial crisis and the resurgent state Finding the balance of power The terror trap Redefining policy: the case of Israel Strategic reversal: the United States, Iran, and the Middle East The return of Russia Europe's return to history Facing the western Pacific A secure hemisphere Africa: a place to leave alone The technological and demographic imbalance The empire, the republic, and the decade. The author of the book "The Next 100 Years" now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade's leaders. From Islam's decline to China's financial crisis, he offers a number of scenarios and predictions