The Nature And Origins Of Mass Opinion (cambridge Studies In Public Opinion And Political Psychology)

In this book John Zaller develops a comprehensive theory to explain how people acquire political information from the mass media and convert it into political preferences. Using numerous specific examples, Zaller applies this theory in order to explain the dynamics of public opinion on a broad range of subjects, including both domestic and foreign policy, trust in government, racial equality, and presidential approval, as well as voting behavior in U.S. House, Senate and Presidential elections. Particularly perplexing characteristics of public opinion are also examined, such as the high degree of random fluctuations in political attitudes observed in opinion surveys and the changes in attitudes due to minor changes in the wording of survey questions. Cover 1 Half-title 3 Title 5 Copyright 6 Dedication 7 Contents 9 List of tables and figures 10 TABLES 10 FIGURES 11 Preface 13 1 Introduction: The fragmented state of opinion research 17 2 Information, predispositions, and opinion 22 INFORMATION AND ELITE DISCOURSE 22 Elite discourse and racial attitudes 25 Conceptualizing and measuring elite discourse 29 MASS ATTENTION TO ELITE DISCOURSE 32 POLITICAL PREDISPOSITIONS 38 WHAT IS AN OPINION? 44 Problems with mass opinion reports: Over time instability 46 Problems with mass opinion reports: "Response effects" 48 Question-wording effects 49 The need for a model of the survey response 50 Background of the question-answering model 53 SUMMARY 55 3 How citizens acquire information and convert it into public opinion 56 SOME DEFINITIONS 56 THE MODEL 58 HOW THE MODEL IS USED IN THIS BOOK 67 4 Coming to terms with response instability 69 THE 1987 PILOT STUDY 71 FIRST DEDUCTIONS FROM THE MODEL 73 RESPONSE INSTABILITY 80 5 Making it up as you go along 92 RESPONSE EFFECTS 93 "PRIMING" AS A TYPE OF SALIENCE EFFECT 96 EFFECTS OF THOUGHT ON THE RELIABILITY OF ATTITUDE REPORTS 101 CONCLUSIONS 107 Nature of public opinion 107 Public opinion and democracy 110 6 The mainstream and polarization effects 113 MAINSTREAM EFFECT 114 THE POLARIZATION EFFECT 116 Empirical support for the polarization effect 118 ATTITUDE CONSTRAINT AND MASS BELIEF SYSTEMS 129 ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS 130 7 Basic processes of "attitude change" 134 MODELING ATTITUDE CHANGE 134 A RECEPTION-ACCEPTANCE MODEL OF ATTITUDE CHANGE 138 PATTERNS OF ATTITUDE CHANGE 140 INITIAL TESTS OF THE MODEL 144 A STATISTICAL MODEL OF ATTITUDE CHANGE 148 CONCLUDING REMARKS 164 APPENDIX 165 8 Tests of the one-message model 167 CHARACTERISTIC PATTERNS OF ATTITUDE CHANGE 167 The case of presidential popularity 174 Opinion formation on new issues 178 Evaluating the attitude-change typology 181 MICROFOUNDATIONS OF RESISTANCE TO PERSUASION 182 Preexisting considerations and inertial resistance 183 Partisan resistance at the level of considerations 185 AGE AND RESISTANCE TO CHANGE 188 Resistance to liberal internationalism 190 Resistance to the liberal anti-Vietnam War movement 191 Generation and race 193 General effects of age 196 SUMMARY 196 APPENDIX: ESTIMATING THE PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY MODEL 197 9 Two-sided information flows 201 EBB AND FLOW OF SUPPORT FOR THE VIETNAM WAR 202 A TWO-MESSAGE MODEL OF ATTITUDE CHANGE 206 DATA AND RESULTS 211 Estimation of the model 214 Patterns of support for and opposition to the war 219 AFRO-AMERICANS' SUPPORT FOR THE WAR 222 IMPLICATIONS 223 APPENDIX A: AN ALTERNATIVE FORM OF TWO-MESSAGE MODEL 227 APPENDIX B: MEASUREMENT OF HAWK-DOVE ATTITUDES 229 10 Information flow and electoral choice 232 INERTIAL RESISTANCE TO INCUMBENT-DOMINATED HOUSE CAMPAIGNS 233 Defection patterns in House elections 235 COUNTERVALENT AND PARTISAN RESISTANCE TO INCUMBENT-DOMINATED HOUSE CAMPAIGNS 244 Focusing on partisan resistance 250 Simulating the effects of campaign intensity 259 Summary on House elections 262 HOUSE ELECTIONS IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE 264 THE DYNAMICS OF PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES 269 Background 269 Data and model 270 Summary on primary elections 273 CONCLUDING REMARKS 274 APPENDIX A: DEFECTIONS IN SENATE ELECTIONS 274 APPENDIX B: MODELING THE MONDALE-HART PRIMARY CONTEST 278 11 Evaluating the model and looking toward future research 281 THE BASIC ARGUMENT RESTATED 282 WHO LEADS WHOM? 284 CRITICAL REVIEW OF BASIC AXIOMS 290 MODELS OF THE RECEPTION-ACCEPTANCE PROCESS 297 Theoretical issues 298 Methodological issues 305 PARSIMONY AS A VALUE 311 Evaluation of presidential character 311 TRUST IN GOVERNMENT 315 POPULAR SUPPORT FOR AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES 317 CONCLUDING REMARKS 324 12 Epilogue: The question of elite domination of public opinion 326 DEFINING ELITE DOMINATION 327 THE PARABLE OF PURPLE LAND 329 THE POLITICAL COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM OF THE UNITED STATES 331 The press 331 Experts 335 POLITICS AND INFORMATION 344 CONCLUDING REMARKS 347 Measures appendix 349 POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE 349 How to measure political awareness 349 Issues in the measurement of political information 352 Types of information tests 353 Coding conventions 355 Scale construction 356 POLITICAL PREDISPOSITIONS 360 Coding conventions 360 Scale construction 360 References 363 Index 375 In this 1992 book John Zaller develops a comprehensive theory to explain how people acquire political information from elites and the mass media and convert it into political preferences. Using numerous specific examples, Zaller applies this theory to the dynamics of public opinion on a broad range of subjects, including domestic and foreign policy, trust in government, racial equality, and presidential approval, as well as voting behaviour in U.S. House, Senate, and presidential elections. The thoery is constructed from four basic premises. The first is that individuals differ substantially in their attention to politics and therefore in their exposure to elite sources of political information. The second is that people react critically to political communication only to the extent that they are knowledgeable about political affairs. The third is that people rarely have fixed attitudes on specific issues; rather, they construct 'preference statements' on the fly as they confront each issue raised. The fourth is that, in constructing these statements, people make the greatest use of ideas that are, for various reasons, the most immediately salient to them. Zaller emphasizes the role of political elites in establishing the terms of political discourse in the mass media and the powerful effect of this framing of issues on the dynamics of mass opinion on any given issue over time In this book John Zaller develops a comprehensive theory to explain how people acquire political information from elites and the mass media and convert it into political preferences. Using numerous specific examples, Zaller applies this theory to the dynamics of public opinion on a broad range of subjects, including domestic and foreign policy, trust in government, racial equality, and presidential approval, as well as voting behaviour in U.S. House, Senate, and presidential elections. The theory is constructed from four basic premises. The first is that individuals differ substantially in their attention to politics and therefore in their exposure to elite sources of political information. The second is that people react critically to political communication only to the extent that they are knowledgeable about political affairs. The third is that people rarely have fixed attitudes on specific issues; rather, they construct 'preference statements' on the fly as they confront each issue raised. The fourth is that, in constructing these statements, people make the greatest use of ideas that are, for various reasons, the most immediately salient to them. Zaller emphasizes the role of political elites in establishing the terms of political discourse in the mass media and the powerful effect of this framing of issues on the dynamics of mass opinion on any given issue over time Zaller Develops A Comprehensive Theory To Explain How People Acquire Political Information From The Mass Media And Convert It Into Political Preferences, And Applies It To Both Domestic And Foreign Policy, Trust In Government, Racial Equality, Presidential Approval, And Voting Behaviour. List Of Tables And Figures -- Preface -- 1. Introduction: The Fragmented State Of Opinion Research -- 2. Information, Predispositions, And Opinion -- 3. How Citizens Acquire Information And Convert It Into Public Opinion -- 4. Coming To Terms With Response Instability -- 5. Making It Up As You Go Along -- 6. The Mainstream And Polarization Effects -- 7. Basic Processes Of 'attitude Change' -- 8. Tests Of The One-message Model -- 9. Two-sided Information Flows -- 10. Information Flow And Electoral Choice -- 11. Evaluating The Model And Looking Toward Future Research -- 12. Epilogue: The Question Of Elite Domination Of Public Opinion -- Measures Appendix -- References -- Index. John R. Zaller. Includes Bibliographical References (p. [347]-357) And Index.