The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate (Science Essentials, 5)

If you think that global warming means slightly hotter weather and a modest rise in sea levels that will persist only so long as fossil fuels hold out (or until we decide to stop burning them), think again. In The Long Thaw, David Archer, one of the world's leading climatologists, predicts that if we continue to emit carbon dioxide we may eventually cancel the next ice age and raise the oceans by 50 meters. The great ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland may take more than a century to melt, and the overall change in sea level will be one hundred times what is forecast for 2100. By comparing the global warming projection for the next century to natural climate changes of the distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific and political horizon of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths of the long-term climate forecast. Archer shows how just a few centuries of fossil-fuel use will cause not only a climate storm that will last a few hundred years, but dramatic climate changes that will last thousands. Carbon dioxide emitted today will be a problem for millennia. For the first time, humans have become major players in shaping the long-term climate. In fact, a planetwide thaw driven by humans has already begun. But despite the seriousness of the situation, Archer argues that it is still not too late to avert dangerous climate change--if humans can find a way to cooperate as never before. Revealing why carbon dioxide may be an even worse gamble in the long run than in the short, this compelling and critically important book brings the best long-term climate science to a general audience for the first time.

in This Short Book, David Archer Gives Us The Latest On Climate Change Research, And Skillfully Tells The Climate Story That He Helped To Discover: Generations Beyond Our Grandchildren's Grandchildren Will Inherit Atmospheric Changes And An Altered Climate As A Result Of Our Current Decisions About Fossil-fuel Burning. Not Only Are Massive Climate Changes Coming If We Humans Continue On Our Current Path, But Many Of These Changes Will Last For Millennia. To Make Predictions About The Future, We Rely On Research Into The Deep Past, And Archer Is At The Forefront Of This Field: Paleoclimatology. This Is The Book For Anyone Who Wishes To Really Understand What Cutting-edge Science Tells Us About The Effects We Are Having, And Will Have, On Our Future Climate.—richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State University

this Is The Best Book About Carbon Dioxide And Climate Change That I Have Read. David Archer Knows What He Is Talking About.—james Hansen, Director Of The Nasa Goddard Institute For Space Studies

books On Climate Change Tend To Focus On What Is Expected To Happen This Century, Which Will Certainly Be Large, But They Often Neglect The Even Larger Changes Expected To Take Place Over Many Centuries. the Long Thaw Looks At Climate Effects Beyond The Twenty-first Century, And Its Focus On The Long-term Carbon Cycle, Rather Than Just Climate Change, Is Unique.—jeffrey T. Kiehl, National Center For Atmospheric Research

a Great Book. What Sets It Apart Is That It Expands The Discussion Of The Impacts Of Global Warming Beyond The Next Century And Convincingly Describes The Effects That Are Projected For The Next Few Thousand Years. What Also Sets It Apart Is How Deeply It Takes General Readers Into The Scientific Issues Of Global Warming By Using Straightforward Explanations Of Often Complex Ideas.—peter J. Fawcett, University Of New Mexico

publishers Weekly

with So Much Dust And Noise Thrown Up By Those Economic Forces Opposed To Reducing Carbon Emissions, Average Readers May Be Hard-pressed To Understand What All The Fuss Is About. Univ. Of Chicago Geophysicist Archer Has Perfectly Pitched Answers To The Most Basic Questions About Global Warming While Providing A Sound Basis For Understanding The Complex Issues Frequently Misrepresented By Global Warming Skeptics. Revisiting His Technical Treatment Of The Same Subject (2006's Global Warming: Understanding The Forecast), Archer Presents Detailed Science In Layman's Language. With A Breezy, Conversational Style, He Breaks Complex Concepts Into Everyday Analogies, Comparing For Example The Oxidation And Reduction Of Carbon Dioxide In Seawater With An Upset Stomach. Divided Into Three Parts-the Present, The Past And The Future-archer Provides A Complete Picture Of Climate Change Now, In The Past, And What We Can Expect In Years And Centuries To Come. His Models, Though Conservative, Imply That Humans Won't Survive The Environmental Consequences Of Severe Warming Over The Next Thousand Years. While Archer Is Neither Grim Nor Pessimistic, He Is Forthright About What's At Stake, And What Must Do To Avert Catastrophe.
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"In The Long Thaw, David Archer, one of the world's leading climatologists, predicts that if we continue to emit carbon dioxide we may eventually cancel the next ice age and raise the oceans by 50 meters. By comparing the global warming projection for the next century to natural climate changes of the distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific and political horizon of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths of the long-term climate forecast." "Revealing why carbon dioxide may be an even worse gamble in the long run than in the short, this compelling and critically important book brings the best long-term climate science to a general audience for the first time."--Jacket Prologue: Global warming in geologic time section 1. The present The greenhouse effect We've seen it with our own eyes Forecast of the century section 2. The past Millennial climate cycles Glacial climate cycles Geologic climate cycles The present in the bosom of the past section 3. The future The fate of fossil fuel CO2 Acidifying the ocean Carbon cycle feedbacks Sea level in the deep future Orbits, CO2, and the next Ice Age Epilogue: Carbon economics and ethics.