فوریت طولانی: بقا در پایان عصر نفت، تغییرات اقلیمی و دیگر فاجعه‌های هم‌گرای قرن بیست و یکم

With his classics of social commentary The Geography of Nowhere and Home from Nowhere, James Howard Kunstler has established himself as one of the great commentators on American space and place. Now, with The Long Emergency, he offers a shocking vision of a post-oil future. As a result of artificially cheap fossil-fuel energy, we have developed global models of industry, commerce, food production, and finance over the last 200 years. But the oil age, which peaked in 1970, is at an end. The depletion of nonrenewable fossil fuels is about to radically change life as we know it, and much sooner than we think. The Long Emergency tells us just what to expect after the honeymoon of affordable energy is over, preparing us for economic, political, and social changes of an unimaginable scale. Riveting and authoritative, The Long Emergency is a devastating indictment that brings new urgency and accessibility to the critical issues that will shape our future, and that we can no longer afford to ignore. It is bound to become a classic of social science. Cover......Page 1 Title page......Page 9 Copyright page......Page 10 Contents......Page 13 1 Sleepwalking into the Future [1]......Page 17 Your Reality Check Is in the Mail......Page 18 The Groaning Multitudes......Page 21 Trashed Planet......Page 24 Revenge of the Rain Forest and Other Tiny Destroyers......Page 25 Adios Globalism......Page 28 The End of the Drive-In Utopia......Page 33 2 Modernity and the Fossil Fuels Dilemma [22]......Page 38 Global Peak......Page 40 What's So Special About Fossil Fuels, Anyway?......Page 46 Where Oil Comes From......Page 48 Oil and Industry......Page 50 The World Leader......Page 55 Hubbert's Curve I—American Peak......Page 57 The First Real Oil Shock......Page 60 Effects of the Embargo......Page 62 Hubbert's Curve II—The Worldwide Peak......Page 64 An Illusory Reprieve......Page 66 The Second Oil Shock......Page 68 Glut......Page 69 Iraq Attack and the Great Sleepwalk......Page 71 Crunch Time......Page 73 3 Geopolitics and the Global Oil Peak [61]......Page 77 Peak and the Fate of Nations......Page 80 The Bumpy Plateau......Page 83 Flashpoint......Page 84 The Main Event......Page 92 Another Hegemon......Page 99 Iraq and Iran......Page 101 No End of Trouble......Page 105 What about Afghanistan?......Page 107 Europe and Russia......Page 109 Global Turbulence......Page 112 4 Beyond Oil: Why Alternative Fuels Won't Rescue Us [100]......Page 116 Natural Gas......Page 118 The Hydrogen Economy......Page 126 Coal......Page 132 Hydroelectric Power......Page 135 Solar and Wind Power......Page 137 Synthetic Oil......Page 147 Thermal Depolymerization......Page 151 Methane Hydrates......Page 154 Zero-Point Energy (ZPE)......Page 155 Nuclear Energy......Page 156 5 Nature Bites Back: Climate Change, Epidemic Disease, Water Scarcity, Habitat Destruction, and the Dark Side of the Industrial Age [147]......Page 163 Surprise!......Page 165 The Gulf Stream "Switch"......Page 169 Climate and the Food Supply......Page 173 Environmental Destruction......Page 177 Return of the Grim Reaper......Page 183 Dark Winter......Page 191 The Social and Economic Consequences of Disease......Page 194 6 Running on Fumes: The Hallucinated Economy [185]......Page 201 Who Needs the Future?......Page 202 The High-Entropy Economy......Page 206 Finance, or Abstracted Economy......Page 210 First Heyday of the Corporation......Page 216 Industrialism and Entropy......Page 219 The Entropy Express......Page 227 Childhood's End......Page 233 The Final Fiesta......Page 236 The Sprawl Economy and Funny Money......Page 238 Home: The Last Refuge of Value......Page 244 Reality Bites but Entropy Devours......Page 249 7 Living in the Long Emergency [235]......Page 251 The Next Economy......Page 255 The End of Suburbia......Page 264 Cities, Towns, and Country......Page 266 Commerce in the Long Emergency......Page 272 What We Live In......Page 276 Transportation in the Long Emergency......Page 279 Education......Page 287 The Regional Outlook: Sunset in the Sunbelt......Page 291 The Land of NASCAR......Page 296 Christianity Inflamed......Page 303 The Old Union......Page 305 The West......Page 309 The Pacific Northwest......Page 312 Racial Conflict in the Long Emergency......Page 313 Ideas, Morals, and Manners in the Long Emergency......Page 317 My Long Emergency......Page 320 History Cover 1 Title page 9 Copyright page 10 Contents 13 1 Sleepwalking into the Future [1] 17 Your Reality Check Is in the Mail 18 The Groaning Multitudes 21 Trashed Planet 24 Revenge of the Rain Forest and Other Tiny Destroyers 25 Adios Globalism 28 The End of the Drive-In Utopia 33 2 Modernity and the Fossil Fuels Dilemma [22] 38 Global Peak 40 What's So Special About Fossil Fuels, Anyway? 46 Where Oil Comes From 48 Oil and Industry 50 The World Leader 55 Hubbert's Curve I—American Peak 57 The First Real Oil Shock 60 Effects of the Embargo 62 Hubbert's Curve II—The Worldwide Peak 64 An Illusory Reprieve 66 The Second Oil Shock 68 Glut 69 Iraq Attack and the Great Sleepwalk 71 Crunch Time 73 3 Geopolitics and the Global Oil Peak [61] 77 Peak and the Fate of Nations 80 The Bumpy Plateau 83 Flashpoint 84 The Main Event 92 Another Hegemon 99 Iraq and Iran 101 No End of Trouble 105 What about Afghanistan? 107 Europe and Russia 109 Global Turbulence 112 4 Beyond Oil: Why Alternative Fuels Won't Rescue Us [100] 116 Natural Gas 118 The Hydrogen Economy 126 Coal 132 Hydroelectric Power 135 Solar and Wind Power 137 Synthetic Oil 147 Thermal Depolymerization 151 Biomass 154 Methane Hydrates 154 Zero-Point Energy (ZPE) 155 Nuclear Energy 156 5 Nature Bites Back: Climate Change, Epidemic Disease, Water Scarcity, Habitat Destruction, and the Dark Side of the Industrial Age [147] 163 Surprise! 165 The Gulf Stream "Switch" 169 Climate and the Food Supply 173 Environmental Destruction 177 Return of the Grim Reaper 183 Dark Winter 191 The Social and Economic Consequences of Disease 194 6 Running on Fumes: The Hallucinated Economy [185] 201 Who Needs the Future? 202 The High-Entropy Economy 206 Finance, or Abstracted Economy 210 First Heyday of the Corporation 216 Industrialism and Entropy 219 The Entropy Express 227 Childhood's End 233 The Final Fiesta 236 The Sprawl Economy and Funny Money 238 Home: The Last Refuge of Value 244 Reality Bites but Entropy Devours 249 7 Living in the Long Emergency [235] 251 The Next Economy 255 The End of Suburbia 264 Cities, Towns, and Country 266 Commerce in the Long Emergency 272 What We Live In 276 Transportation in the Long Emergency 279 Education 287 The Regional Outlook: Sunset in the Sunbelt 291 The Land of NASCAR 296 Christianity Inflamed 303 The Old Union 305 The West 309 The Pacific Northwest 312 Racial Conflict in the Long Emergency 313 Ideas, Morals, and Manners in the Long Emergency 317 My Long Emergency 320 history;,energy;,oil;,petroleum,industry;,environment;,climate,change;,global,warming;,globalization;,world,politics;,economics history,energy,oil,petroleum industry,environment,climate change,global warming,globalization,world politics,economics What will happen when our current plagues of global warming, epidemic disease, and overpopulation collide to exacerbate the end of the oil age? The last two hundred years have seen the greatest explosion of progress and wealth in the history of mankind, much of it based on the exploitation of cheap, nonrenewable fossil-fuel energy. Our daily enjoyment of oil and gas has given us the energy equivalent of three hundred slaves per person in the industrialized nations. But life as we know it is about to change radically, and much sooner than we think. No combination of alternative energies will permit us to continue living the way we do, or even close to it. This book tells us just what to expect after the honeymoon of affordable energy is over, preparing us for economic, political, and social changes of an unimaginable scale.--From publisher description Carl Jung, one of the fathers of psychology, famously remarked that "people cannot stand too much reality."