The Logic of Priorities : Applications in Business, Energy, Health, and Transportation

This book presents applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process developed by Thomas L. Saaty to deal with unstructured decision problems, together with case histories developed by him and in collaboration with others in areas of current societal concern. Its purpose is to provide the reader with examples of how to deal with unstructured problems, particularly ones involving socio­ economic and political issues with qualitative and intangible factors. These examples show how to use judgment and experience to analyze a com­ plex decision problem by combining its qualitative and quantitative aspects in a single framework and generating a set of priorities for alternative courses of action. The process has inherent flexibilities in structuring a problem and in taking diverse judgments from people, whether singly, in a group working together, or by questionnaire. Decisionmakers will profit from this approach. It makes accessible to them a framework for understanding the complexity of the system they are in as it impinges on the surrounding environment. To deal with complexity, we must first understand it. Systems thinking is necessary if all the important factors are to be considered. Complex systems problems can challenge and tax our logical capability to fully understand their causes and the consequences of any action we may take to solve them. Neverthe­ less, in time their effects on us tend to become better known than their causes. Front Matter....Pages i-xiv Front Matter....Pages 1-1 Introduction....Pages 3-13 The Basic Approach....Pages 14-41 Front Matter....Pages 43-43 The Sudan Transport Study....Pages 45-65 Technological Choice in Less Developed Countries....Pages 66-82 XYZ Research Institute: Planning Resource Allocation under Uncertainty ....Pages 83-98 Front Matter....Pages 99-99 Planning: Forward and Backward Processes ....Pages 101-117 The Conflict in South Africa....Pages 118-138 Critical Choices for Opec Members and the United States: A Hierarchical Search for Their Desired Future ....Pages 139-161 Front Matter....Pages 163-163 Optimum Determination of Hospital Requirements....Pages 165-181 Rationing Energy to Industries: Priorities and Input-Output Dependence ....Pages 182-192 Front Matter....Pages 193-193 Oil Prices: 1985 and 1990 ....Pages 195-206 Hierarchical Analysis of Behavior in Competition: Prediction in Chess ....Pages 207-226 Risk and Uncertainty in Portfolio Selection....Pages 227-263 Some Extensions in Applications and Theory....Pages 264-278 Back Matter....Pages 279-299