The lights in the tunnel automation, accelerating technology and the economy of the future ; [a journey to the conomic landscape of the coming decades

What will the economy of the future look like? Where will advancing technology, job automation, outsourcing and globalization lead? This groundbreaking book by a Silicon Valley computer engineer explores these questions and shows how accelerating technology is likely to have a highly disruptive influence on our economy in the near future--and may well already be a significant factor in the current global crisis. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL employs a powerful thought experiment to explore the economy of the future. An imaginary "tunnel of lights" is used to visualize the economic implications of the new technologies that are likely to appear in the coming years and decades. The book directly challenges conventional views of the future and illuminates the danger that lies ahead if we do not plan for the impact of rapidly advancing technology. It also shows how the economic realities of the future might offer solutions to issues such as poverty and climate change. Martin Ford......Page 2 CONTENTS......Page 6 INTRODUCTION......Page 11 THE TUNNEL......Page 17 The Mass Market......Page 20 Visualizing the Mass Market......Page 21 Automation Comes to the Tunnel......Page 27 A Reality Check......Page 31 Summarizing......Page 34 ACCELERATION......Page 37 The Rich Get Richer......Page 38 World Computational Capability......Page 49 Grid and Cloud Computing......Page 51 Meltdown......Page 53 Diminishing Returns......Page 57 Offshoring and Drive-Through Banking......Page 64 Short Lived Jobs......Page 67 Traditional Jobs: The “Average” Lights in the Tunnel......Page 68 A Tale of Two Jobs......Page 73 “Software” Jobs and Artificial Intelligence......Page 77 Automation, Offshoring and Small Business......Page 84 “Hardware” Jobs and Robotics......Page 85 “Interface” Jobs......Page 90 The Next “Killer App”......Page 91 Military Robotics......Page 95 Robotics and Offshoring......Page 96 Nanotechnology and its Impact on Employment......Page 97 The Future of College Education......Page 100 Econometrics: Looking Backward......Page 103 The Luddite Fallacy......Page 105 A More Ambitious View of Future Technological Progress: The Singularity......Page 110 A War on Technology......Page 113 The Predictive Nature of Markets......Page 117 The 2008-2009 Recession......Page 120 Offshoring and Factory Migration......Page 123 Reconsidering Conventional Views about the Future......Page 125 The China Fallacy......Page 127 The Future of Manufacturing......Page 134 India and Offshoring......Page 137 Economic and National Security Implications for the United States......Page 138 Labor and Capital Intensive Industries: The Tipping Point......Page 141 The Average Worker and the Average Machine......Page 145 Capital Intensive Industries are “Free Riders”......Page 148 The Problem with Payroll Taxes......Page 150 The “Workerless” Payroll Tax......Page 152 “Progressive” Wage Deductions......Page 154 Defeating the Lobbyists......Page 156 A More Conventional View of the Future......Page 159 The Risk of Inaction......Page 162 TRANSITION......Page 166 The Basis of the Free Market Economy: Incentives......Page 168 Preserving the Market......Page 169 Recapturing Wages......Page 172 Unit Cost Breakdown for a Hypothetical Product or Service......Page 175 Positive Aspects of Jobs......Page 178 The Power of Inequality......Page 179 Where the Free Market Fails: Externalities......Page 180 Creating a Virtual Job......Page 182 Education......Page 183 Community and Civic Activities......Page 185 Journalism......Page 186 The Environment and other Externalities......Page 187 Setting the Incentives......Page 188 Smoothing the Business Cycle and Reducing Economic Risk......Page 189 The Market Economy of the Future......Page 190 An International View......Page 193 Transitioning to the New Model......Page 195 Keynesian Grandchildren......Page 199 Transition in the Tunnel......Page 202 THE GREEN LIGHT......Page 204 Attacking Poverty......Page 206 Energy, Land, Natural Resources and Environmental Impact......Page 211 Removing the Constraints......Page 212 The Evolution toward Consumption......Page 214 The Green Light......Page 217 APPENDIX / FINAL THOUGHTS......Page 219 Are the ideas presented in this book WRONG? (Opposing arguments with responses)......Page 220 Two......Page 233 Where are we now? Four Possible Cases......Page 234 The Next 10-20 years: Some Indicators to Watch For......Page 237 New technology industries fail to create significant numbers of jobs......Page 240 Diminishing prospects for college graduates......Page 241 Systemic unemployment invades the economy......Page 242 Increasingly bad news for entitlement and retirement programs......Page 243 Continuing Instability in the Financial Markets......Page 244 Ugly and irrational political battles......Page 245 Outsmarting Marx......Page 247 The Technology Paradox......Page 249 Machine Intelligence and the Turing Test......Page 251 About / Contacting the Author......Page 256 NOTES......Page 257 Chapter 1: The Tunnel 7 The Mass Market 10 Visualizing the Mass Market 12 Automation Comes to the Tunnel 18 A Reality Check 21 Summarizing 25 Chapter 2: Acceleration 27 The Rich Get Richer 28 World Computational Capability 39 Grid and Cloud Computing 41 Meltdown 44 Diminishing Returns 47 Offshoring and Drive-Through Banking 55 Short Lived Jobs 57 Traditional Jobs: The “Average” Lights in the Tunnel 58 A Tale of Two Jobs 63 “Software” Jobs and Artificial Intelligence 67 Automation, Offshoring and Small Business 74 “Hardware” Jobs and Robotics 75 “Interface” Jobs 80 The Next “Killer App” 81 Military Robotics 85 Robotics and Offshoring 86 Nanotechnology and its Impact on Employment 87 The Future of College Education 90 Econometrics: Looking Backward 93 The Luddite Fallacy 95 A More Ambitious View of Future Technological Progress: The Singularity 100 A War on Technology 103 Chapter 3: Danger 107 The Predictive Nature of Markets 107 The 2008-2009 Recession 110 Offshoring and Factory Migration 113 Reconsidering Conventional Views About the Future 115 The China Fallacy 117 The Future of Manufacturing 124 India and Offshoring 127 Economic and National Security Implications for the United States 128 Solutions 131 Labor and Capital Intensive Industries: The Tipping Point 131 The Average Worker and the Average Machine 135 Capital Intensive Industries are “Free Riders” 138 The Problem with Payroll Taxes 140 The “Workerless” Payroll Tax 142 “Progressive” Wage Deductions 144 Defeating the Lobbyists 146 A More Conventional View of the Future 148 The Risk of Inaction 152 Chapter 4: Transition 156 The Basis of the Free Market Economy: Incentives 158 Preserving the Market 159 Recapturing Wages 162 Positive Aspects of Jobs 168 The Power of Inequality 169 Where the Free Market Fails: Externalities 170 Creating a Virtual Job 172 Smoothing the Business Cycle and Reducing Economic Risk 178 The Market Economy of the Future 179 An International View 182 Transitioning to the New Model 184 Keynesian Grandchildren 188 Transition in the Tunnel 191 Chapter 5: The Green Light 193 Attacking Poverty 195 Fundamental Economic Constraints 200 Removing the Constraints 201 The Evolution Toward Consumption 203 The Green Light 206 Appendix / Final Thoughts 208 Are the ideas presented in this book WRONG? (Opposing arguments with responses) 209 Two Questions Worth Thinking About 222 Where are we now? Four Possible Cases 223 The Next 10-20 years: Some Indicators to Watch for 226 Outsmarting Marx 236 The Technology Paradox 238 Machine Intelligence and the Turing Test 240 About / Contacting the Author 245 Notes 246 A Computer Engineer From Silicon Valley Employs A Powerful Thought Experiment To Explore The Economy Of The Future. An Imaginary Tunnel Of Lights Is Used To Visualize The Economic Implications Of The New Technologies That Are Likely To Appear In The Coming Years And Decades. Challenged Are Nearly All Conventional Views Of The Future And The Danger That Lies Ahead If We Do Not Plan For The Impact Of Rapidly Advancing Technology Is Illuminated. It Also Offers Unique Insights Into How Technology Will Intertwine With Globalization To Shape The Remainder Of The 21st Century, And Explores Ways In Which The Economic Realities Of The Future Might Offer New Approaches To Addressing Global Challenges Such As Poverty And Climate Change. Introduction -- The Tunnel -- Acceleration -- Danger -- Transition -- The Green Light -- Final Thoughts. Martin Ford. Includes Bibliographic References (p. 247-253).