The Hot Hand: The Mystery and Science of Winning Streaks

For fans of Charles Duhigg and Nate Silver, a brilliant and buoyant investigation into the existence (or not) of streaks, from a rising star at the Wall Street Journal. For decades, psychologists and economists have studied the science of streaks to determine whether the ‘hot hand’ exists. Is there such a thing as being in the zone? Or it simply a case of seeing patterns in randomness? Genius scholars and Nobel Prize winners have dedicated years to answering this question. A substantial number of the decisions we make each day are rooted in two opposing beliefs: that if something happened before, it will happen again – or if it happened before, it probably won’t happen again. The Hot Hand is an incredibly entertaining and provocative investigation into the seductive idea that streaks not only exist but can be created. Every day we look for patterns in coincidence, and coincidence in patterns. Is there a hidden logic that defies our basic understanding of probability? If we recognize someone has a hot hand, can we adjust to take advantage? If we mistakenly assume they have the hot hand, what are the costs? What happens when we’re wrong – and what happens when maybe we were right all along? To answer these questions, Ben Cohen embarks on a kaleidoscopic investigation that ranges from the magical night that forever changed NBA’s superstar Stephen Curry’s life to a billionaire investor who made a fortune betting against streaks; the mystery of a missing World War II hero to the authentication of a lost Van Gogh painting; how Shakespeare’s success was abetted by a flea to how Spotify had to make its shuffle feature less random to feel more random. The Hot Hand takes us to the jungles of the Amazon, a sugar-beet farm in the northern United States, and strip mall arcades to show us how recognition of patterns can be both fruitful – and disastrous. A brilliant and buoyant investigation into the existence (or not) of streaks, from a rising star at the Wall Street Journal. For decades, statisticians, social scientists, psychologists, and economists (among them Nobel Prize winners) have spent massive amounts of precious time thinking about whether streaks actually exist. After all, a substantial number of decisions that we make in our everyday lives are quietly rooted in this one question: If something happened before, will it happen again? Is there such a thing as being in the zone? Can someone have a hot hand? Or is it simply a case of seeing patterns in randomness? Or, if streaks are possible, where can they be found? In The Hot Hand, Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Cohen offers an unfailingly entertaining and provocative investigation into these questions. He begins with how a $35,000 fine and a wild night in New York revived a debate about the existence of streaks that was several generations in the making. We learn how the ability to recognize and then bet against streaks turned a business school dropout named David Booth into a billionaire, and how the subconscious nature of streak-related bias can make the difference between life and death for asylum seekers. We see how previously unrecognized streaks hidden amidst archival data helped solve one of the most haunting mysteries of the twentieth century, the disappearance of Raoul Wallenberg. Cohen also exposes how streak-related incentives can be manipulated, from the five-syllable word that helped break arcade profit records to an arc of black paint that allowed Stephen Curry to transform from future junior high coach into the greatest three-point shooter in NBA history. Crucially, Cohen also explores why false recognition of nonexistent streaks can have cataclysmic results, particularly if you are a sugar beet farmer or the sort of gambler who likes to switch to black on the ninth spin of the roulette wheel. A brilliant investigation into when streaks exist and how they can be taken advantage of, The Hot Hand is essential reading for anyone who thinks theyve got a shot. How can you maximize success—and limit failure? Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Cohen brilliantly investigates the mystery and science of streaks, from basketball to business. "A feast for anyone interested in the secrets of excellence." —Andre Agassi For decades, statisticians, social scientists, psychologists, and economists (among them Nobel Prize winners) have spent massive amounts of precious time thinking about whether streaks actually exist. After all, a substantial number of decisions that we make in our everyday lives are quietly rooted in this one question: If something happened before, will it happen again? Is there such a thing as being in the zone? Can someone have a “hot hand”? Or is it simply a case of seeing patterns in randomness? Or, if streaks are possible, where can they be found? In The Hot Hand , Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Cohen offers an unfailingly entertaining and provocative investigation into these questions. He begins with how a $35,000 fine and a wild night in New York revived a debate about the existence of streaks that was several generations in the making. We learn how the ability to recognize and then bet against streaks turned a business school dropout named David Booth into a billionaire, and how the subconscious nature of streak-related bias can make the difference between life and death for asylum seekers. We see how previously unrecognized streaks hidden amidst archival data helped solve one of the most haunting mysteries of the twentieth century, the disappearance of Raoul Wallenberg. Cohen also exposes how streak-related incentives can be manipulated, from the five-syllable word that helped break arcade profit records to an arc of black paint that allowed Stephen Curry to transform from future junior high coach into the greatest three-point shooter in NBA history. Crucially, Cohen also explores why false recognition of nonexistent streaks can have cataclysmic results, particularly if you are a sugar beet farmer or the sort of gambler who likes to switch to black on the ninth spin of the roulette wheel. "Fascinating, eye-opening and consistently entertaining, The Hot Hand"A feast for anyone interested in the secrets of excellence."--Andre Agassi In The Hot Hand, Wall Street Journal reporter Ben Cohen offers an unfailingly entertaining and provocative investigation into these questions. He begins with how a $35,000 fine and a wild night in New York revived a debate about the existence of streaks that was several generations in the making. We learn how the ability to recognize and then bet against streaks turned a business school dropout named David Booth into a billionaire, and how the subconscious nature of streak-related bias can make the difference between life and death for asylum seekers. We see how previously unrecognized streaks hidden amidst archival data helped solve one of the most haunting mysteries of the twentieth century, the disappearance of Raoul Wallenberg. Cohen also exposes how streak-related incentives can be manipulated, from the five-syllable word that helped break arcade profit records to an arc of black paint that allowed Stephen Curry to transform from future junior high coach into the greatest three-point shooter in NBA history. Crucially, Cohen also explores why false recognition of nonexistent streaks can have cataclysmic results, particularly if you are a sugar beet farmer or the sort of gambler who likes to switch to black on the ninth spin of the roulette wheel Is it possible to maximize success, and limit failure? For decades statisticians, social scientists, psychologists, and economists have spent precious time thinking about whether streaks actually exist. Cohen offers an entertaining investigation into whether someone can have a "hot hand" or if they simple see patterns in randomness. He also explores why false recognition of nonexistent streaks can have cataclysmic results. -- adapted from jacket "For fans of Charles Duhigg, Philip Tetlock and Nate Silver, a brilliant and buoyant investigation into the existence (or not) of streaks, from a rising star at the Wall Street Journal"-- Provided by publisher