The Great Power Competition Volume 2 : Contagion Effect: Strategic Competition in the COVID-19 Era

Even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Region faced numerous obstacles to building a stable and prosperous future. The region, which encompasses the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia, has been plagued by economic and political uncertainty amidst dramatic shifts in the global power structure. With the pandemic now exacerbating the volatility in this already fragile region, the U.S.'s strategic objectives are rife for re-examination. A complicated stew of factors such as weakening of established governance systems, the emboldening of extremist individuals and groups through advances in digital technology, the humanitarian crises in Afghanistan and Syria, and the intensification of the great power competition with China and Russia are creating a fertile environment for the growth of violent extremist organizations (VEOs). Such organizations take advantage of vulnerable, aggrieved, and traumatized populations to fuel radicalization, recruitment, and unrest, which further undermine stability and the potential for peace and prosperity. While it is still early to fully understand how the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact U.S. policy, this book provides a timely analysis of relevant dynamics such as popular radicalization, digital information ecosystems, networks of influence, and new capabilities to recognize and prepare for other such black swan events in the region. Preface 5 Acknowledgements 9 Contents 10 Editors and Contributors 12 From the Great Power Competition to Great Power Cooperation: Strategic Lessons from a Pandemic 14 Introduction 15 How the Pandemic Has Altered the Geo-Strategic Landscape in CASA - Revealed Interconnectedness and Interdependence 16 Increased Vulnerability to Misinformation in the COVID-19 Era 18 Recommendations for U.S. Strategic Shifts in a Post-Pandemic CASA Region 19 New Silk Road Initiative Investment in Afghanistan 21 Cooperation with Other Regional Powers 22 Cooperation Over Competition with China in Afghanistan 24 China–U.S. Partnerships 26 Conclusion 28 References 29 Iran and the United States: The Way Forward 31 Introduction 31 The Military Dimension 38 US–Iran Relations—the Way Forward 42 References 44 Who Are the Great Powers in 2021? 46 Introduction 47 The United States 48 China and Russia 50 ...and India? 52 Regional Power Competition 53 Iran 53 Pakistan 56 Saudi Arabia 56 Qatar 58 United Arab Emirates (UAE) 59 Israel 60 Jordan 60 Exploiting Regional Friction Points and Proxy Fights 61 Yemen 61 Other Players in the Region 62 Oman 62 Bahrain 63 Kuwait 63 The Global Rebalance 63 References 64 Exploiting Seams and Gaps in the Central Asia and South Asia Region: A Framework for Analysis 68 Introduction 68 Seven Days in March 2021: The Suez Canal Crisis, the Greater Indian Ocean Region, and CASA 69 The Seams and Gaps Analytical Framework 71 Geographic and Cognitive Seams: Intra-Ocean Trade Routes and the CASA Region 72 Diplomatic, Economic, Institutional, and Cognitive: China’s Belt and Road Initiative 76 Conclusions: Calibration and Consistency to Close Seams and Gaps 80 References 82 Building Trust and Advancing U.S. Geoeconomic Strength Through Public–Private Partnership Stakeholder Capitalism 84 Introduction 85 Shifting to Stakeholder Capitalism Over State or Shareholder Capitalism 86 State, Business, and Human Security 88 Re-aligning State Security in the Post-COVID-19 Era of the GPC 89 The Emergence of Global Interdependence of State Security 90 Opportunities for Growth at Home and Abroad 92 Interdependence of Critical Infrastructure 93 Business Security and Access to Capital 95 China and the U.S.—Rivals and Partners 96 The Prescription 97 Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) 98 Medical PPPs 98 Education PPPs 99 Supply Chain PPPs 99 Industrial Policy and the U.S. Defense Industry 100 Findings 102 References 104 Russia Views Central Asia/South Asia-The Immediate Threat and Longer-Term Opportunity 107 Introduction 107 Russia Evaluates Her Position from Continuities of Geography, Enemy and Historic Military and Ethnic Cultural Memory 109 Russia in Central Asia and the South Caucasus States (CASC) and Beyond 112 Conclusion 119 References 120 Anti-Democratic Malign Influence in the Time of COVID-19 122 Introduction 122 The Strategic Logic of Anti-Democratic Malign Influence 123 Social Trust 124 Trust in Experts/Authorities 125 Trust in Democratic Institutions and Processes 126 Psychosocial & Strategic Effects 126 Exploiting Extant Factors and Conditions 127 Global Democratic Recession Looming Towards Crisis 128 Pandemic Propaganda and Disinformation 129 A Perfect Storm for Anti-Democratic Malign Influence 131 Policy Implications 133 Conclusion 136 References 137 COVID, Democratic Fallout Versus New National Humiliation: China’s Perception and Strategy in the Middle East 141 The Fallout of COVID and the Marketplace of Democracy 142 Beijing’s Perception of Fear and Strongman Authoritarian Power 145 Beijing’s Middle East Calculation: Navigating the Status Quo 149 Turkey 151 Egypt 151 India 152 Strategic Alliance: Shifting Realpolitik Trajectory 153 A Short-, Medium- and Long-Term Projection 154 Short Term (2020 to 2025) 154 Medium Term (2025 to 2035) 154 Long Term (2035 to 2045) 155 Conclusion: Confronting the Future 155 References 156 Russia’s Energy Ambitions in the Middle East 159 Introduction 159 Mitigating Competition 161 Attracting Investment 163 Creating Political Leverage 164 Russian Energy Companies and the Kremlin 165 The Fall and Raise of the OPEC+ 167 Conclusion 171 References 173 The COVID-19 Pandemic: Gray Rhinos, Complexity, Prediction, and National Security 175 Introduction 176 On Gray Rhinos 177 The COVID-19 Pandemic Gray Rhino 179 Prediction 180 The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Complex System 182 Modeling Gray Rhino Complex Systems 184 Requirements 185 Theoretical Requirements 185 Methodological Requirements 186 Data Requirements 187 Talent Requirements 187 Need for a National Capability 188 References 189 The Russo-Persian Cooperation in the Syrian Civil War: A New Battleground in the Great Power Competition 193 Introduction 194 Questions 194 Statement of Methods 195 Theoretical Framework 195 Syrian Civil War, A New Indication in Russia-Iran Relation 196 Iran’s Involvement in Syria 198 Russia and Her Involvement in Syria 203 The Outcome and Future of Russo-Persian Cooperation in Syria 205 Conclusion 208 References 209 Radicalization to Violent Extremism: A Creeping Crisis, an Examination Through the PAR Model 213 Introduction 214 Creeping Crisis 214 Understanding Radicalization 216 Models of Radicalization 217 Actor Network Theory Lens 219 Discussion 220 Pressure and Release (PAR) Model 222 The Progression of Vulnerability 223 Conclusion 224 References 225 Great Power Competition in the Digital Age 228 Introduction 229 First, the “Intangible” Challenge 232 Second, the More “Tangible” Challenge 233 Conclusion 237 Cognitive Security and Emotional Warfare: The Science and Practice for Understanding, Analyzing and Preventing the Spread of Violent Extremism in the CENTCOM AOR 240 Background 240 Cognitive Versus Emotional Paradigm in Terrorism and Warfare: A Brief Historical and Scientific Insight 243 The Human Domain Matrix (HDM): The Science and Practice of Conflict Engagement 247 Interdisciplinary Science of the Human Domain Matrix 248 Weaponizing the Mind: From Trauma to Terrorism 249 Conclusion 253 References 254 Caring for the Whole Soldier in the Wake of COVID-19 256 Introduction 256 The Effects of COVID-19 on the U.S. Military to Date 258 A Proposal for Revising the Two-Dimensional Model of the Whole Soldier 261 Integrating Each Aspect of Spirituality into Care for the Whole Soldier 267 Spirituality Assessments and Care for the Whole Soldier 267 Spiritual Practices for Soldiers’ Daily Lives 269 Captain Harold Earls 269 Corporal Jonathon Grajales 270 Conclusion 272 References 273 Africa’s Strategic Pivots: From China’s Rise to Tradeoff Between Battling Covid-19 and Violent Extremism 275 Introduction 275 Why Is this Happening? 276 Rise of Covid-19 277 A Strategic Pivot 277 Why the Slow Spread Initially? 278 Other Possible Reasons 278 African Youth 279 Climate 279 Lower Population Density 279 Less Travel 280 Excellent Masks 280 Effective Cross-Border Cooperation 280 Indirect Protection from Other Treatments 281 A Viral Mutation 281 Operational Success 281 The Initial Logic of a Lockdown 282 Rwanda Success 283 African Success Story 283 Spun into Action 284 African Ingenuity 284 Sign of Success 284 Ethiopia Role Model 284 Community Activism 286 Making Kenyon Masks 287 Africa’s Own Solutions 287 Relentless Pandemic and Rising Concerns 288 Another Strategic Pivot 289 Double Whammy 289 Fertile Ground for Terrorists 291 Services 292 Militaries Squeezed on All Sides 292 Violent Attacks 293 African Governments Losing Ground 294 Redeploying 294 Coronavirus Pandemic 295 References 296 Counter Intuitiveness of Influence Science, Social Judgment Theory, and Strategic Messaging in Great Power Competition 298 Introduction 299 Counter-Intuitiveness of Influence Science 299 The Science of Influence 300 Social Judgement Theory 301 Applied Message Development 304 Information Activities in the Great Power Competition 306 Conceptual Influence Model 306 Influence and Rapport 307 China 308 China’s Overt Information Initiatives 309 China’s COVID Diplomacy 309 Media Expansion and Acquisition 311 Information Advantage Gained Through Economic Leverage 315 U.S. Messaging 316 Russia 317 Conclusions 318 Summary 318 References 319 "Over the past decade, the international political system has come to be characterized as a Great Power Competition in which multiple would-be hegemons compete for power and influence. Instead of a global climate of unchallenged United States dominance, revisionist powers, notably China and Russia alongside other regional powers, are vying for dominance through political, military, and economic means. A critical battleground in the Great Powers Competition is the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, and the Central Asia South Asia (CASA), also known as the Central Region. With the planned withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Afghanistan, the U.S. has stated its intention of shifting attention away from the CASA Region in favor of a more isolationist foreign policy approach. This book provides an in-depth understanding of the implications for this shift related to regional diplomacy & politics, economic opportunities & rivalries, security considerations & interests, and the information environment. Amplifying the vital importance of success in the Central Region to U.S. prosperity and security, this volume advances dialogue in identifying key issues for stakeholders within and beyond the Central Region to gain a holistic perspective that better informs decision-making at various levels. This collection of work comes from scholars, strategic thinkers, and subject matter experts who participated in the Great Power Competition Conference hosted by the University of South Florida, in partnership with the National Defense University Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Strategies in January 2020."--Provided by publisher