The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century (Book)

"The Graying of the Great Powers offers the first comprehensive assessment of the geopolitical implications of "global aging"--The dramatic transformation in population age structures and growth rates being brought about by falling fertility and rising longevity worldwide. It describes how demographic trends in the developed world will constrain the ability of the United States and its traditional allies to maintain national and global security in the decades ahead. It also explains how dramatic demographic change in the developing world - from resurgent youth bulges in the Islamic world to premature aging in China and population implosion in Russia - will give rise to serious new security threats. While some argue that global aging is pushing the world toward greater peace and prosperity, The Graying of the Great Powers warns that a period of great geopolitical danger looms just over the horizon. Neither the triumph of multilateralism nor democratic capitalism is assured. The demographic trends of the twenty-first century will challenge the geopolitical assumptions of both the left and the right."--Jacket Contents......Page 4 Major Findings: The Demographic Transformation......Page 8 Organization of the Report......Page 9 1. Population and Power......Page 12 Population and Power: The New Global Interest......Page 16 Population and Power: Lessons of History......Page 22 Conceptual Framework of the Report......Page 31 2. Developed World: Assessing the Projections......Page 36 The United States......Page 37 Other English-Speaking Countries......Page 39 Western Europe......Page 40 Japan......Page 42 A Closer Look at the Drivers......Page 43 Fertility......Page 44 Life Expectancy......Page 51 Immigration......Page 54 The Impact on Government Budgets......Page 57 The Impact on Employment and GDP......Page 65 3. Developed World: Assessing the Consequences......Page 71 Size of Population......Page 72 Size of Economy......Page 77 Efficiencies of Scale......Page 80 Changes in Economic Performance......Page 82 Economic Structure......Page 83 Savings and Investment......Page 86 Global Capital Flows......Page 90 Workforce Aging......Page 95 Market Psychology......Page 99 Individual Psychology......Page 102 Family Size and Structure......Page 104 Growing Ethnic Diversity......Page 106 Politics and National Direction......Page 111 4. Developed World’s Demographic Future: Cause for Hope or Concern?......Page 116 Stalled and Backtracking Transitions......Page 119 “More Murder in the Middle”......Page 123 Squandered Demographic Dividends......Page 131 Transitions Too Fast or Too Far......Page 134 The New Demographic Competition......Page 136 The Assumptions behind the Projections......Page 138 Sub-Saharan Africa......Page 141 The Arab World......Page 143 Non-Arab Muslim Asia......Page 145 China and East Asia......Page 148 India and South Asia......Page 150 Latin America......Page 153 The Russian Sphere......Page 155 Eastern Europe......Page 158 A Riskier World......Page 159 Major Findings: The Demographic Transformation......Page 161 Major Findings: The Geopolitical Implications......Page 165 Demographic Policy......Page 172 Economic Policy......Page 173 Defense Posture and Military Strategy......Page 174 1. PRINCIPAL DATA SOURCES......Page 177 Country Groups......Page 178 Baseline Projections......Page 180 Projections of Muslim Populations......Page 181 Global GDP Projection Model......Page 182 Developed-Country GDP Scenarios......Page 183 Roundtable Participants......Page 186 Interviewees......Page 187 Acknowledgments......Page 190 About the Authors......Page 191