The Global Development of Policy Regimes to Combat Climate Change (Tricontinental Series on Global Economic Issues)

The year 2015 will be a landmark year for international climate change negotiations. Governments have agreed to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris in 2015. The agreement will come into force no later than 2020. This book focuses on the prospects for global agreement, how to encourage compliance with any such agreement and perspectives of key players in the negotiations — the United States, India, China, and the EU. It finds that there is strong commitment to the established UN institutions and processes within which the search for further agreed actions will occur. There are already a myriad of local and regional policies that are helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build mutual confidence. However, the chapters in the book also highlight potential areas of discord. For instance, varying interpretations of the "common but differentiated responsibilities" of developing countries, agreed as part of the UNFCCC, could be a major sticking point for negotiators. When combined with other issues, such as the choice of consumption or production as the basis for mitigation commitments, the appropriate time frame and base date for their measurement and whether level or intensity commitments are to be negotiated, the challenges that need to be overcome are considerable. The authors bring to bear insights from economics, public finance and game theory. Readership: students and researchers in developmental economics and climate change; policy makers and decision makers; general public interested in climate change issues. Contents 6 About the Contributors 8 About the Editors 14 Acknowledgments 16 Introduction 18 1. Background 18 2. The Global Perspective 21 3. Country and Regional Perspectives 21 4. Issues and Negotiating Approaches 25 5. The Future 28 Chapter 1. Global Cooperation and Understanding to Accelerate Climate Action 30 1. Introduction 30 2. Key Milestones in Climate Change Negotiations 32 3. Where Are We Heading? 36 4. A New Industrial Revolution 38 5. Action in the Developed and Developing World 43 6. Bottom-Up and Top-Down Approaches 45 7. Conclusion 47 References 49 Chapter 2. The US and Action on Climate Change 52 1. Introduction 52 2. Recent Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the US 54 3. US Role in Global Climate Change Negotiations 60 4. Key National Climate Change Policies and Their Development 63 4.1. Initiatives at federal level 63 4.2. Initiatives at regional, state and local levels 68 5. Lessons from the US Climate Change Policy and the Way Forward 70 6. Conclusions 74 Annex 1 76 Acknowledgments 85 References 85 Chapter 3. Challenges and Reality: China’s Dilemma on Durban Platform Negotiation 92 1. How to Interpret the Durban Outcome 93 1.1. The North and South achieved a balanced outcome of the Durban Conference 93 1.2. Key sticking points remain unresolved 93 1.3. No substantial progress on emission reduction targets, finance mechanisms and technology transfer 94 1.4. Durban was a milestone in the process of climate negotiation, but hardly was a success 94 2. The Durban Platform and the Post-2012 International Climate Negotiation 95 2.1. Three parallel negotiation tracks under two UNFCCC mandates 95 2.2. Divergence of interests between the North and South hampers breakthrough on key negotiation issues 95 3. Key Issues in the Durban Platform Negotiation 96 3.1. “Common but differentiated responsibilities” in the future international regime 96 3.2. The issue of legal form 96 3.3. The framework and agenda of the Durban Platform 97 3.4. The roadmap and timetable of the Durban Platform 97 4. China’s Dilemma about Taking Part in Negotiations 97 4.1. Low level of social and economic development 98 4.2. Rapid urbanization leads to emission growth 98 4.3. Industrialization and embodied energy export 99 4.4. Resource endowment and difficult adjustment of energy structure 99 4.5. Inefficient technology with lock-in effect of technologies 100 5. Prospects for the Durban Platform Negotiations 100 References 102 Chapter 4. Sustainable Growth and Climate Change: Evolution of India’s Strategies 104 1. Introduction 104 2. Climate Change in India 106 2.1. India’s emissions 106 2.2. Vulnerability to climate change 107 3. Key Climate Change Strategies up to the Eleventh FYP 109 3.1. The Stockholm UN Conference 109 3.2. The UNFCCC 110 3.3. Kyoto Protocol 110 3.4. The 11th FYP 111 3.5. National action plan on climate change 113 3.6. State action plans on climate change 116 4. 12th FYP 116 4.1. Low-carbon growth strategy 118 4.2. Sustainable development policies and programs 118 5. Opportunities and Challenges for a Sustainable Future 124 5.1. Technology diffusion 125 5.2. Innovative finance mechanisms 126 5.3. Mainstreaming climate change into development programs 127 5.4. Global governance 128 5.5. Implementation, accountability, and governance 130 5.6. Knowledge management 131 6. Conclusions 132 References 132 Chapter 5. After Copenhagen and the Economic Crisis: Does the EU Need to Go Back to the Drawing Board? 136 1. Introduction 137 2. A Brief History of EU Climate Change Policy 137 3. Cornerstone EU ETS: Designing a Regional System for an Uncertain Future 141 3.1. ETS beginnings 143 3.2. Overhaul in two steps 145 4. Toward Global Level Carbon Pricing in Aviation (and Maritime)? 147 5. After Copenhagen and the Economic Crisis: Is the EU Emperor Naked? 150 6. Back to the Drawing Board? 152 6.1. Addressing EU’s divisions 152 6.2. The EU’s share of emissions is falling fast 154 6.3. Industrial competitiveness starts to matter ever more 154 7. The Way Ahead 156 References 159 Chapter 6. The Scope for “Green Growth” and a New Technological Revolution 162 1. Introduction 162 2. High-Carbon Growth: A Contradiction in Terms? 167 3. The Costs of Mitigating Climate Change 170 4. The Keynesian Element of Green Growth 174 5. The Pigouvian Element of Green Growth 177 6. The Schumpeterian Element of Green Growth 179 7. The Georgian Element of Green Growth 180 8. Conclusions 181 Acknowledgments 182 References 182 Chapter 7. Negotiating to Avoid “Dangerous” Climate Change 188 1. Introduction 188 2. The “Scientific View” About “Dangerous” Climate Change 191 3. Impacts versus Thresholds 194 4. Costs and Benefits 199 5. Collective Action 202 6. A Strategic Perspective on Treaty Negotiations 204 7. Conclusions 206 References 207 Chapter 8. Unilateral Measures and Emissions Mitigation 210 1. Introduction 210 2. The Extent of Unilateral Measures for Emissions Mitigation 213 2.1. The Copenhagen Accord 215 2.2. Unilateral measures by country 216 2.3. Unilateral measures by territories, states, and provinces 219 2.4. Unilateral measures by cities22 222 2.5. Unilateral measures by businesses and joint public–private partnerships 225 2.6. Unilateral measures by individuals 229 3. The Rationale for Unilateral Measures 230 3.1. The meaning of unilateral initiatives 233 4. Global Learning, the Role of Technology and IP, and the Road to a Low Carbon Paradigm 235 4.1. The task of the Accords 235 4.2. Technology and the global IP regime 236 5. Concluding Remarks 241 References 242 Annex 1 244 Chapter 9. Compliance Mechanisms in Global Climate Regimes: Kyoto and Post-Kyoto 254 1. Introduction 254 2. General Considerations with Enforcement Mechanisms in Climate Change Agreements 256 2.1. Trade penalties for environmental agreements 257 2.2. Incorporation into domestic law 259 2.3. Escrow account 259 2.4. Agency rankings 260 3. Enforcement Mechanisms in the Kyoto Protocol 260 3.1. Origin and structure 261 3.2. The handling of complaints 263 3.3. Experiences to date with questions of implementation7 265 3.4. Withdrawal from the Protocol 267 4. Lessons for the Post-Kyoto Regime 268 4.1. The need for an enforcement system 272 4.2. Emissions reduction without an effective enforcement mechanism 272 4.3. Climate enforcement in 2011: Bangkok and Durban 273 5. Concluding Remarks 276 References 277 Index 280 The year 2015 will be a landmark year for international climate change negotiations. Governments have agreed to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris in 2015. The agreement will come into force no later than 2020. This book focuses on the prospects for global agreement, how to encourage compliance with any such agreement and perspectives of key players in the negotiations  � the United States, India, China, and the EU. It finds that there is strong commitment to the established UN institutions and processes within which the search for further agreed actions will occur. There are already a myriad of local and regional policies that are helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build mutual confidence. However, the chapters in the book also highlight potential areas of discord. For instance, varying interpretations of the "common but differentiated responsibilities" of developing countries, agreed as part of the UNFCCC, could be a major sticking point for negotiators. When combined with other issues, such as the choice of consumption or production as the basis for mitigation commitments, the appropriate time frame and base date for their measurement and whether level or intensity commitments are to be negotiated, the challenges that need to be overcome are considerable. The authors bring to bear insights from economics, public finance and game theory.-- Provided by Publisher