The Future of the Gulf Region: Value Change and Global Cycles (Gulf Studies, 2)

This book studies values and attitudes in the Gulf region. In light of global power shifts, the threatening collapse of internal security in the West, and uncertainty about the current leadership vacuum in world society, this book explores a future leading role of the Gulf countries in such institutions as the G-20 and the OECD. Based on rigorous analysis of macro-level data and opinion surveys with relevance for the Gulf region, it analyzes the global macro-factors shaping the Gulf's future at a time of the global COVID-19 crisis and depression and rising global tensions. Starting with an empirical time series analysis of the long cycles of global politics and economics, it highlights the implications for the Gulf region. Offering a multivariate analysis of civil society values in the Gulf, the author analyzes value changes and attitudes on antisemitism, political Islam, internal security, democracy, and other issues of Arab politics. The partially optimistic conclusions of the study testify to the underestimated and incipient maturity of the Gulf’s civil society and strongly suggest that the Gulf's future is rather with the free societies of the West and not with a Neo-Ottoman Empire in whatever form. "Exceptional in scope and right up-to-the-minute in coverage" Brian M Pollins, Associate, Professor Emeritus, The Ohio State University. "An outstanding and topical book by an astute scholar of the MENA region" Professor Hussein Solomon, Academic Head of Department, Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State, South Africa. "The most comprehensive and insightful study on the subject to date" Manfred B. Steger, Professor of Sociology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa and Global Professorial Fellow, Western Sydney University. 'The essays in this volume are refreshingly different in their tone and mode of analysis. Using a few basic concepts like rent, balance of class power, and wage-led growth through mass consumption, the author provides a multi-dimensional explanatory framework for development. With impressive scholarship, he links history, economics and sociology seamlessly with country-based observations. Whether in agreement or not, the reader, an experienced researcher or an aspiring scholar, will feel greatly rewarded by the insightful freshness of these essays.' -Amit Bhaduri, Professor Emeritus, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India 'One of my greatest revelations as a young scholar came when I read Hartmut Elsenhans' 1983 article "Rising Mass Incomes as a Condition of Capitalist Growth". Almost 30 years, and dozens of articles, later, Elsenhans' much more fully developed theory still provides one of the freshest, most insightful, and coherent policy-relevant visions of the economy of our supposedly "post"-colonial world. This volume celebrates Elsenhans' long career with a welcome introduction to his vision.' -Craig N. Murphy, Betty Freyhof Johnson '44 Professor, Wellesley College, USA 'Hartmut Elsenhans is the most clear-sighted political economist of our time. This book rounds out his theory of rent with a series of articles not previously available in English. Highly recommended!' -Salvatore Babones, University of Sydney, Australia This book combines Hartmut Elsenhans' ideas on the laws of motion of capitalism and his approach to world system analysis and rent theory, his thoughts on development theory and finally, international relations and the past, present, and future dynamics of the international system. Hartmut Elsenhans shows that capitalist growth depends on rising mass incomes and on the strength of labor unions and their bargaining power. This alternative approach challenges mainstream assumptions on capitalism, growth, and development by both leading leftist authors, such as David Harvey, Immanuel Wallerstein, Andre Gunder Frank or Samir Amin, as well as by neoclassical economists and western institutionalist political and social scientists. Hartmut Elsenhans offers a unique approach to understand the dynamics of capitalism as well as the prospects for development. This Festschrift brings together his major contributions on these topics that were initially never or only published in German or French. Hannes Warnecke-Berger is Senior Researcher at the University of Kassel, Germany. He is a political scientist and the author and editor of various books and articles, including Politics and Violence in Central America and the Caribbean (2018), and Politics and History of Crime and Violence in Central America (2017) "This book studies values and attitudes in the Gulf region. In light of global power shifts, the threatening collapse of internal security in the West, and uncertainty about the current leadership vacuum in world society, this book explores a future leading role of the Gulf countries in such institutions as the G-20 and the OECD. Based on rigorous analysis of macro-level data and opinion surveys with relevance for the Gulf region, it analyzes the global macro-factors shaping the Gulf's future at a time of the global COVID-19 crisis and depression and rising global tensions. Starting with an empirical time series analysis of the long cycles of global politics and economics, it highlights the implications for the Gulf region. Offering a multivariate analysis of civil society values in the Gulf, the author analyzes value changes and attitudes on antisemitism, political Islam, internal security, democracy, and other issues of Arab politics. The partially optimistic conclusions of the study testify to the underestimated and incipient maturity of the Gulf's civil society and strongly suggest that the Gulf's future is rather with the free societies of the West and not with a Neo-Ottoman Empire in whatever form."--Publisher's website Dieter Senghaas, professor emeritus of international relations, University of Bremen, was one of most innovative contemporary German social scientists, with major contributions on peace and development research and on music and peace. He was awarded many prizes: the International Peace Research Award (1987), Göttingen Peace Prize (1999), Culture and Peace Prize of the Villa Ichon in Bremen (2006), and the Leopold-Kohr Prize of the Austrian Ministry of Science and Research (2010). In addition to his autobiographic notes and his selected bibliography, this book offers a global audience five key texts by D. Senghaas (1974-2009): Towards an Analysis of Threat Policy in International Relations; Friedrich List and the Basic Problems of Development; Developing the Definitions of Perpetual Peace (‘para pacem'): Through What and How is Peace Constituted Today?; Sounds of Peace: On Peace Fantasies and Peace Offerings in Classical Music; and Enhancing Human Rights – A Contribution to Viable Peace. This book presents a series of interviews with Hartmut Elsenhans on his wide-ranging theories and their policy implications. Serving as a compilation of his distilled thoughts, we discuss with him his unique world economic theory, his theorisation of social movements, his work on overcoming underdevelopment, and much more.