The Future of the Global Economy: Towards a Long Boom?

Powerful forces of change are converging that could set the stage for a long, sustained economic boom in the next few decades—the transition to a knowledge-based society; the emergence of more deeply integrated, global markets for goods, services, capital and technology; and a fast-growing environmental awareness that could greatly accelerate the shift to new, less resource-intensive production and consumption patterns. The result could be several decades of above-average economic growth, substantial increases in income and wealth, and significant improvements in well-being across the world. But what will it take to unleash these dynamic forces? This book reviews the forces driving economic and social change in today's world. It assesses the likelihood of a long boom materializing in the first decades of the 21st century and explores the strategic policies essential for making it happen. Foreword Table of Contents Chapter 1. Anatomy of a Long Boom 1. Introduction 2. What is a long boom? 3. Policies for provoking a long boom 4. Conclusion Chapter 2. Sources of Continued Long-run Economic Dynamism in the 21st Century 1. Introduction 2. Growth and technological change Figure 1. 3. Roots of past growth 4. The roots of future growth 5. Structural adjustments 6. The anatomy of long booms 7. Policies to exploit potential 8. The need for social consensus 9. The policy structure Notes Bibliography Chapter 3. The Emerging Global Knowledge Economy 1. Introduction: A tale of two countries Figure 1. Taxonomy of knowledge Figure 2. Changes in economic leadership 2. Understanding the global knowledge economy 3. Reperceiving the knowledge economy Figure 3 Figure 4. Work, wealth, jobs... coming full circle 4. Scenarios for the future of the global knowledge economy 5. Conclusion and implications for the OECD Bibliography Chapter 4. Towards Global Competition: Catalysts and Constraints 1. Introduction 2. Visions of an integrated world economy Figure 1. Basic elements of global competition 3. Catalysts of globalisation Figure 2. Costs of transport and communication Table 1. Information and communication equipment per 100inhabitants in countries grouped by income, 1995 Figure 3. Weighted average US tarif rate after GATT Rounds Figure 4. World output, exports, and foreign direct investment Table 2. Share of services in total trade Figure 5. Increase in gross domestic product, exports, and foreign direct investment of selected countries, 1981-1996 Table 3. Feldstein-Horioka coefficients for OECD countries 4. Constraints of globalisation Table 4. Wage dispersion between different income decilesa across countries Table 5. Anti-dumping actions by region Table 6. Share of intra-regional trade in total flows 5. The future of globalisation Table 7. Terms of trade in international trade Table 8. Annual real GDP growth before and after trade liberalisation Notes Bibliography Chapter 5. Working for World Ecological Sustainability: Towards a “New Great Transformation” 1. Introduction 2. A short history of human ecology 3. Local crises and global crises 4. On the regulation of local ecological crises 5. Global crises: first lessons 6. The case of the greenhouse effect 7. Conclusion Notes Bibliography Chapter 6. Policy Drivers for a Long Boom 1. An economic decomposition of growth 2. Three geographic scenarios for a long boom 3. Policy overview for a long boom Table 1. GDP growth 2000-2025 Table 2. World GDP shares Table 3. Key enabling policies Notes Bibliography Annex. List of Participants List of Figures Figure1. Figure 1. Taxonomy of knowledge Figure 2. Changes in economic leadership Figure 3. Figure 4. Work, wealth, jobs...coming full circle Figure 1. Basic elements of global competition Figure 2. Costs of transport and communication Figure 3. Weighted average US tariff rate after GATT Rounds Figure 4. World output, exports, and foreign direct investment Figure 5. Increase in gross domestic product, exports, and foreign direct investment of selected countries, 1961-1996 List of Tables Table 1. Information and communication equipment per 100inhabitants in countries grouped by income, 1995 Table 2. Share of services in total trade Table 3. Feldstein-Horioka coefficients for OECD countries Table 4. Wage dispersion between different income deciles a across countries Table 5. Anti-dumping actions by region Table 6. Share of intra-regional trade in total flows Table 7. Terms of trade in international trade Table 8. Annual real GDP growth before and after trade liberalisation Table 1. GDP growth 2000-2025 Table 2. World GDP shares Table 3. Key enabling policies