The Future of Petroleum in Lebanon: Energy, Politics and Economic Growth (Library of Modern Middle East Studies)

What is the future of the oil and gas sector in Lebanon? Following the recent discovery of these valuable resources in the southern Mediterranean, this collection of essays addresses the major challenges and opportunities that accompany the country’s hope to join the petroleum club. Addressing the key policy issues – from Lebanon’s susceptibility to the oil curse, to the environmental risks of production – this book brings together expert analysis to offer answers at the institutional level. Combining rigorous quantitative and qualitative research, the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies has produced an essential book that puts oil in Lebanon – and the important questions that come with it – within a global perspective Cover page Halftitle page Title page Copyright page Contents Illustrations Contributors Acknowledgments Introduction Oil could be a curse Lebanon’s weak institutions make it highly susceptible to the resource curse A roadmap for institutional and policy reform Plan of the book References Size of the Reserves 1 Estimating the Size of the Levantine East Mediterranean Hydrocarbon Basin Introduction Petroleum systems From resources to reserves Geographic framework and geological setting of the Levantine Province within the Eastern Mediterranean Petroleum resources in the Levantine Basin Estimates of petroleum resources in the basin Petroleum systems and prospectivity of the Levantine Basin Conclusion and recommendations References Governance of the Sector 2 Carving Out a Role for Parliament in the Lebanese Oil and Gas Sector Introduction Parliament’s mandate to play a crucial role in governing the oil and gas sector Methodology Lebanon’s parliament: strong but untapped authorities Assessing the parliament’s four-pillar governance framework for the sector Conclusion and recommendations References 3 Spoils of Oil? Assessing and Mitigating the Risks of Corruption in Lebanon’s Emerging Off shore Petroleum Sector Introduction The petroleum–corruption nexus Public institutions, corruption and political settlement in Lebanon Assessing Lebanon’s first steps in petroleum governance and the risks of corruption Revenue management options, expenditure and risks of corruption Conclusion and recommendations References 4 Establishing a National Oil Company in Lebanon Introduction Why create an NOC? What NOC mandates would serve Lebanon’s interests? Governance framework required to oversee an NOC Conclusion and recommendations References Management and Licensing 5 Licensing and Upstream Petroleum Fiscal Regimes: Assessing Lebanon’s Choices Introduction Allocation of oil and gas rights Petroleum fiscal regime Conclusion and recommendations References 6 Lebanon’s Gas Trading Options Introduction Short-term natural gas imports for Lebanon Monetizing Lebanese gas: export options for the medium term Conclusion and recommendations References 7 Managing Oil and Gas Revenues in Lebanon Introduction The resource curse and Dutch disease Managing resource revenues: three key questions Macroeconomic and institutional context Conclusion and recommendations References 8 Investing Resource Wealth in a Sovereign Development Fund Introduction Sovereign wealth funds in a global perspective Salient features of Arab SWFs The political economy of Lebanese public finance Institutional design Conclusion and recommendations Annex 1: The Santiago Principles References Impact and Implications 9 Macroeconomic Implications of Windfall Oil and Gas Revenues in Lebanon Introduction Economics of Dutch disease: theoretical overview and empirical evidence Lebanon’s economic performance in recent decades: was there already Dutch disease? Dynamic model of windfall oil and gas revenues Conclusion and recommendations Annex 1: Lag order selection and cointegrating rank for VECM model Annex 2: Estimation results of the VECM model References 10 How Will Oil Affect Lebanon’s Export Opportunities? Introduction Literature review Framework of analysis The impact of oil revenues on export diversification Conclusion and recommendations Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 References 11 Strengthening Environmental Governance of the Oil and Gas Sector in Lebanon Introduction Environmental threats and risks International best practices in environmental management in the oil and gas sector Existing environmental governance system in Lebanon Conclusion and recommendations Annex 1: Organizational structure of the MoE Annex 2: Organizational structure of the LPA References Public Input 12 What Do Lebanese Citizens Want From Oil and Gas Revenues? Introduction Survey methodology Peoples’ perceptions of the impact of oil rents Revenue allocation by function Revenue allocation by sector Revenue allocation by region Conclusion and recommendations Annex 1: Questionnaire and methodology of the survey Annex 2: Regressions and details References Index "What is the future of the oil and gas sector in Lebanon? Following the recent discovery of these valuable resources in the southern Mediterranean, including in the Cypriot and Israeli offshore reserves, the possibility of Lebanon also becoming a petroleum-producing country has been raised. This collection of essays addresses the major challenges and opportunities that accompany the country's hope to join the petroleum club. Covering the key policy issues - from Lebanon's susceptibility to the oil curse, to the environmental risks of production - this book brings together expert analysis to offer answers at the institutional level. Of central importance, the contributors argue, is that for Lebanon to benefit from the discovery of petroleum, it must first reform its institutions with the full support of the voting public and civil society. Combining rigorous quantitative and qualitative research, the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies has produced here an essential book that puts petroleum in Lebanon, and the important questions that come with it, within a global perspective."--Bloomsbury Publishing.