The Fragile Balance of Terror : Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age

**In** **__The Fragile Balance of Terror__****, the foremost experts on nuclear policy and strategy offer insight into an era rife with more nuclear powers.** Some of these new powers suffer domestic instability, others are led by pathological personalist dictators, and many are situated in highly unstable regions of the world—a volatile mix of variables. The increasing fragility of deterrence in the twenty-first century is created by a confluence of forces: military technologies that create vulnerable arsenals, a novel information ecosystem that rapidly transmits both information and misinformation, nuclear rivalries that include three or more nuclear powers, and dictatorial decision making that encourages rash choices. The nuclear threats posed by India, Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea are thus fraught with danger. __The Fragile Balance of Terror__, edited by Vipin Narang and Scott D. Sagan, brings together a diverse collection of rigorous and creative scholars who analyze how the nuclear landscape is changing for the worse. Scholars, pundits, and policymakers who think that the spread of nuclear weapons can create stable forms of nuclear deterrence in the future will be forced to think again.

In The Fragile Balance ofTerror , the foremost experts on nuclearpolicy and strategy offer insight into an era rife with morenuclear powers. Some of these new powers suffer domesticinstability, others are led by pathological personalist dictators,and many are situated in highly unstable regions of the world-avolatile mix of variables.

The increasing fragility of deterrence in the twenty-firstcentury is created by a confluence of forces: military technologiesthat create vulnerable arsenals, a novel information ecosystem thatrapidly transmits both information and misinformation, nuclearrivalries that include three or more nuclear powers, anddictatorial decision making that encourages rash choices. Thenuclear threats posed by India, Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea arethus fraught with danger.

The Fragile Balance of Terror, edited by Vipin Narangand Scott D. Sagan, brings together a diverse collection ofrigorous and creative scholars who analyze how the nuclearlandscape is changing for the worse. Scholars, pundits, andpolicymakers who think that the spread of nuclear weapons cancreate stable forms of nuclear deterrence in the future will beforced to think again.

Contributors: Giles David Arceneaux, Mark S. Bell, ChristopherClary, Peter D. Feaver, Jeffrey Lewis, Rose McDermott, Nicholas L.Miller, Vipin Narang, Ankit Panda, Scott D. Sagan, CaitlinTalmadge, Heather Williams, Amy Zegart

In The Fragile Balance of Terror , the foremost experts on nuclear policy and strategy offer insight into an era rife with more nuclear powers. Some of these new powers suffer domestic instability, others are led by pathological personalist dictators, and many are situated in highly unstable regions of the world—a volatile mix of variables. The increasing fragility of deterrence in the twenty-first century is created by a confluence of forces: military technologies that create vulnerable arsenals, a novel information ecosystem that rapidly transmits both information and misinformation, nuclear rivalries that include three or more nuclear powers, and dictatorial decision making that encourages rash choices. The nuclear threats posed by India, Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea are thus fraught with danger. The Fragile Balance of Terror , edited by Vipin Narang and Scott D. Sagan, brings together a diverse collection of rigorous and creative scholars who analyze how the nuclear landscape is changing for the worse. Scholars, pundits, and policymakers who think that the spread of nuclear weapons can create stable forms of nuclear deterrence in the future will be forced to think again. Contributors: Giles David Arceneaux, Mark S. Bell, Christopher Clary, Peter D. Feaver, Jeffrey Lewis, Rose McDermott, Nicholas L. Miller, Vipin Narang, Ankit Panda, Scott D. Sagan, Caitlin Talmadge, Heather Williams, Amy Zegart Contents Introduction: The Fragile Balance of Terror I. NEW CHALLENGES IN THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE Chapter 1 Multipolar Deterrence in the Emerging Nuclear Era Chapter 2 Psychology, Leaders, and New Deterrence Dilemmas Chapter 3 Thermonuclear Twitter? Chapter 4 Understanding New Nuclear Threats: The Open-Source Intelligence Revolution? II. ENDURING CHALLENGES WITH A NEW TWIST Chapter 5 How Much Is Enough? Revisiting Nuclear Reliability, Deterrence, and Preventive War Chapter 6 Survivability in the New Era of Counterforce Chapter 7 The Fulcrum of Fragility: Command and Control in Regional Nuclear Powers Chapter 8 The Limits of Nuclear Learning in the New Nuclear Age Conclusion: The Dangerous Nuclear Future Acknowledgments Contributors Index