The Foundations of Ethnic Politics: Separatism of States and Nations in Eurasia and the World (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics)

Despite implicating ethnicity in everything from civil war to economic failure, researchers seldom consult psychological research when addressing the most basic question: What is ethnicity? The result is a radical scholarly divide generating contradictory recommendations for solving ethnic conflict. Research into how the human brain actually works demands a revision of existing schools of thought. At its foundation, ethnic identity is a cognitive uncertainty-reduction device with special capacity to exacerbate, but not cause, collective action problems. This produces a new general theory of ethnic conflict that can improve both understanding and practice. A deep study of separatism in the USSR and CIS demonstrates the theory's potential, mobilizing evidence from elite interviews, three local languages, and mass surveys. The outcome is a significant reinterpretation of nationalism's role in the USSR's breakup, which turns out to have been a far more contingent event than commonly recognized. International relations in the CIS are similarly cast in new light. Cover......Page 1 Half-title......Page 3 Series-title......Page 5 Title......Page 7 Copyright......Page 8 Contents......Page 9 Acknowledgments......Page 11 Note on Transliteration......Page 15 1 Introduction......Page 17 PART I THEORY WITH WORLDWIDE EXAMPLES......Page 27 2 The Need for a Microfoundational......Page 29 Hard Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Relative Values......Page 32 Soft Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Absolute Values......Page 36 Ultrasoft Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Constructed Values......Page 38 Ethnicity-as-epiphenomenal Theories......Page 41 Conclusion: Moving Beyond Utility Maximization as a Microlevel Theory of Ethnicity......Page 46 3 A Relational Theory......Page 49 Identity and the Fundamental Human Drive for Uncertainty Reduction......Page 50 Why Some Aspects of Identity Are More Useful for Uncertainty Reduction than Others......Page 52 The Situational Essence of Identity as an Uncertainty-Reduction Device......Page 54 Explaining Ethnicity as an Especially Useful Uncertainty-Reducing Device......Page 56 Ethnicity as Conceptually Prior to Utility Seeking and Emotional Behavior......Page 63 Functionalism and Consistency with a Theory of Human Evolution......Page 67 Beyond Uncertainty Reduction: Ethnic Politics as the Realm of "Ordinary" Interests......Page 68 Conclusion......Page 71 4 A Theory of National Separatism in Domestic and Interstate Politics......Page 73 Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories of Separatism......Page 74 Ethnicity-as-Epiphenomenal Theories of Separatism......Page 76 A Behavioral Assumption: The Maximization of Life Chances......Page 78 Collective Action Problems, Separatist Politics, and Ethnofederalism......Page 79 The Basic Secession Game......Page 81 The Center's Preferences and Types of Central Governments......Page 83 The Region's Preferences......Page 85 Implications: The Sources of Separatism and Variation in It......Page 88 Ethnicity and Variation in Separatism Over Time and Space......Page 92 Ethnicity......Page 93 Central State Policies......Page 96 Framing......Page 98 Institutionally Mediated Interests......Page 100 International Relations Versus Domestic Politics......Page 103 Conclusion......Page 104 PART II CASE COMPARISONS......Page 107 5 Ethnicity......Page 109 Life Chances and National Identification in the USSR......Page 110 Rejecting the Pure National Consciousness Explanation: Ukraine and Uzbekistan......Page 115 Ukraine in the USSR......Page 116 Uzbekistan in the USSR......Page 119 The Insufficiency of National Consciousness......Page 122 Rejecting Ethnicity-as-epiphenomenal Theories of Separatism: Russia and Belarus......Page 123 The Russian Republic (RSFSR)......Page 124 Belarus......Page 130 Conclusion......Page 132 6 Central State Policies and Separatism......Page 135 The Unilateral Period: March 1985 May 1990......Page 136 The Bilateral Period: June 1990 March 1991......Page 141 The Multilateral Period: April August 1991......Page 145 The Period Of Central Strategy Collapse: August December 1991......Page 149 Taking Stock: Ruling Out Alternative Theories and Posing a Remaining Puzzle......Page 153 7 Framing......Page 156 The Complexity of the Union Issue......Page 157 Gorbachev and the March 1991 Referendum......Page 158 Ukraine: From "Union" to "Independence"......Page 160 Competing Frames and the March 1991 Referenda......Page 161 Framing the Shift to Independence......Page 163 Supporting Evidence: Elections, Surveys, Insider Testimony......Page 166 Uzbekistan: Framing Unionism......Page 170 Conclusion: Explaining Frames?......Page 173 8 Institutionally Mediated Interests......Page 177 The Relationship Between Elite and Mass Material Interests in Ukraine and Uzbekistan......Page 179 Determining Economic Interests in Union and Secession......Page 184 Ukraine: The Politics of Secession in a Relatively Developed Republic......Page 188 The 1990 Election Campaign......Page 189 The Impact of the 1990 Rada Elections......Page 191 Kravchuk's Shift to a Secession-Facilitating Frame......Page 196 Uzbekistan: The Politics of Union in a Less-Developed Republic......Page 197 Gaining Autonomy......Page 199 Obtaining Subsidies......Page 200 Preserving Union Ties......Page 201 Denouement: The Coup and the Fall of 1991......Page 202 Conclusion......Page 204 9 Ethnicity and International Integration......Page 206 Patterns of Separatism in the Emerging CIS......Page 208 Ukraine: Ethnicity, Economics, and CIS Skepticism......Page 215 Ukrainian Elite and Mass Opinion on the CIS......Page 216 Toward a Civilized Divorce......Page 219 Ukraine and Europe......Page 221 Uzbekistan and the Early CIS: Autonomy, Subsidies, and Economic Ties......Page 222 Uzbekistan's Shifts in 1996 and 2005......Page 225 Conclusion......Page 227 10 Quantitative Evidence......Page 232 Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theory......Page 233 The Relational Theory of Ethnicity and Separatism......Page 234 Measuring Secessionism......Page 235 The Statistical Model and Interpretation......Page 236 Findings: Correlates of Macrolevel Secessionism......Page 237 individual attitudes to separatism: a multilevel analysis......Page 241 The Variables: Dependent and Independent......Page 242 The Statistical Model and How to Interpret It......Page 243 Findings......Page 244 Ethnicity, Interests, and Separatist Attitudes: A Microlevel Analysis......Page 245 The Dependent Variable and Statistical Model......Page 246 Findings: Correlates of Microlevel Separatism......Page 247 Conclusion......Page 252 PART III CONCLUSION......Page 255 The Balance of Evidence......Page 257 Worldwide Patterns of Separatism......Page 263 Extracting a Third Core Argument: A General Theory of Ethnic Conflict?......Page 269 Multiethnic State Failure......Page 270 The Failure or Nonoccurrence of International Integration Projects......Page 272 Deadly Violence within and between States......Page 273 Implications for Policy: Finding Solutions to Ethnic Conflict......Page 278 Index......Page 281 Cover 1 Half-title 3 Series-title 5 Title 7 Copyright 8 Contents 9 Acknowledgments 11 Note on Transliteration 15 1 Introduction 17 PART I THEORY WITH WORLDWIDE EXAMPLES 27 2 The Need for a Microfoundational 29 Ethnicity-as-conflictual Theories 32 Hard Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Relative Values 32 Soft Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Absolute Values 36 Ultrasoft Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Constructed Values 38 Ethnicity-as-epiphenomenal Theories 41 Conclusion: Moving Beyond Utility Maximization as a Microlevel Theory of Ethnicity 46 3 A Relational Theory 49 Uncertainty reduction as the human drive explaining ethnicity 50 Identity as Points of Personal Reference 50 Identity and the Fundamental Human Drive for Uncertainty Reduction 50 Why Some Aspects of Identity Are More Useful for Uncertainty Reduction than Others 52 The Situational Essence of Identity as an Uncertainty-Reduction Device 54 Explaining Ethnicity as an Especially Useful Uncertainty-Reducing Device 56 Ethnicity as Conceptually Prior to Utility Seeking and Emotional Behavior 63 Functionalism and Consistency with a Theory of Human Evolution 67 Beyond Uncertainty Reduction: Ethnic Politics as the Realm of "Ordinary" Interests 68 Conclusion 71 4 A Theory of National Separatism in Domestic and Interstate Politics 73 Theories of Separatism and their Assumptions About Ethnicity 74 Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories of Separatism 74 Ethnicity-as-Epiphenomenal Theories of Separatism 76 Toward a Theory of Separatism Based on a Relational Approach to Ethnicity 78 A Behavioral Assumption: The Maximization of Life Chances 78 Collective Action Problems, Separatist Politics, and Ethnofederalism 79 A Collective Action Problem as the Driving Force of Separatism 81 The Basic Secession Game 81 The Center's Preferences and Types of Central Governments 83 The Region's Preferences 85 Implications: The Sources of Separatism and Variation in It 88 Ethnicity and Variation in Separatism Over Time and Space 92 Ethnicity 93 Central State Policies 96 Framing 98 Institutionally Mediated Interests 100 International Relations Versus Domestic Politics 103 Conclusion 104 PART II CASE COMPARISONS 107 5 Ethnicity 109 Life Chances and National Identification in the USSR 110 Rejecting the Pure National Consciousness Explanation: Ukraine and Uzbekistan 115 Ukraine in the USSR 116 Uzbekistan in the USSR 119 The Insufficiency of National Consciousness 122 Rejecting Ethnicity-as-epiphenomenal Theories of Separatism: Russia and Belarus 123 The Russian Republic (RSFSR) 124 Belarus 130 Conclusion 132 6 Central State Policies and Separatism 135 The Unilateral Period: March 1985 May 1990 136 The Bilateral Period: June 1990 March 1991 141 The Multilateral Period: April August 1991 145 The Period Of Central Strategy Collapse: August December 1991 149 Taking Stock: Ruling Out Alternative Theories and Posing a Remaining Puzzle 153 7 Framing 156 The Complexity of the Union Issue 157 Gorbachev and the March 1991 Referendum 158 Ukraine: From "Union" to "Independence" 160 Competing Frames and the March 1991 Referenda 161 Framing the Shift to Independence 163 Supporting Evidence: Elections, Surveys, Insider Testimony 166 Uzbekistan: Framing Unionism 170 Conclusion: Explaining Frames? 173 8 Institutionally Mediated Interests 177 The Relative Importance of Economic and Ethnic Concerns 179 The Relationship Between Elite and Mass Material Interests in Ukraine and Uzbekistan 179 Determining Economic Interests in Union and Secession 184 Ukraine: The Politics of Secession in a Relatively Developed Republic 188 The 1990 Election Campaign 189 The Impact of the 1990 Rada Elections 191 Kravchuk's Shift to a Secession-Facilitating Frame 196 Uzbekistan: The Politics of Union in a Less-Developed Republic 197 Gaining Autonomy 199 Obtaining Subsidies 200 Preserving Union Ties 201 Denouement: The Coup and the Fall of 1991 202 Conclusion 204 9 Ethnicity and International Integration 206 Patterns of Separatism in the Emerging CIS 208 Ukraine: Ethnicity, Economics, and CIS Skepticism 215 Ukrainian Elite and Mass Opinion on the CIS 216 Toward a Civilized Divorce 219 Ukraine and Europe 221 Uzbekistan: Economics, State Building, and CIS Activism 222 Uzbekistan and the Early CIS: Autonomy, Subsidies, and Economic Ties 222 Uzbekistan's Shifts in 1996 and 2005 225 Conclusion 227 10 Quantitative Evidence 232 Theories of Ethnicity and Patterns of Separatism 233 Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theory 233 Ethnicity-as-Epiphenomenal Theory 234 The Relational Theory of Ethnicity and Separatism 234 A Macrolevel Analysis: Forty-Five Ethnic Regions in the Late USSR 235 Measuring Secessionism 235 The Statistical Model and Interpretation 236 Findings: Correlates of Macrolevel Secessionism 237 individual attitudes to separatism: a multilevel analysis 241 The Variables: Dependent and Independent 242 The Statistical Model and How to Interpret It 243 Findings 244 Ethnicity, Interests, and Separatist Attitudes: A Microlevel Analysis 245 Important Features of the Surveys 246 The Dependent Variable and Statistical Model 246 Findings: Correlates of Microlevel Separatism 247 Conclusion 252 PART III CONCLUSION 255 11 Toward a General Theory of Ethnic Conflict and Solutions 257 The Balance of Evidence 257 Worldwide Patterns of Separatism 263 Extracting a Third Core Argument: A General Theory of Ethnic Conflict? 269 Multiethnic State Failure 270 The Failure or Nonoccurrence of International Integration Projects 272 Deadly Violence within and between States 273 Implications for Policy: Finding Solutions to Ethnic Conflict 278 Index 281 "Despite implicating ethnicity in everything from civil war to economic failure, researchers seldom consult psychological research when addressing the most basic question: What is ethnicity? The result is a radical scholarly divide generating contradictory recommendations for solving ethnic conflict. Research into how the human brain actually works demands a revision of existing schools of thought. Hale argues ethnic identity is a cognitive uncertainty-reduction device with special capacity to exacerbate, but not cause, collective action problems. This produces a new general theory of ethnic conflict that can improve both understanding and practice. A deep study of separatism in the USSR and CIS demonstrates the theory's potential, mobilizing evidence from elite interviews, three local languages, and mass surveys. The outcome significantly reinterprets nationalism's role in CIS relations and the USSR's breakup, which turns out to have been a far more contingent event than commonly recognized"--Back cover