The Forensics of Election Fraud : Russia and Ukraine

This volume offers a number of forensic indicators of election fraud applied to official election returns, and tests and illustrates their application in Russia and Ukraine. Included are the methodology's econometric details and theoretical assumptions. The applications to Russia include the analysis of all federal elections between 1996 and 2007 and, for Ukraine, between 2004 and 2007. Generally, we find that fraud has metastasized within the Russian polity during Putin's administration with upwards of 10 million or more suspect votes in both the 2004 and 2007 balloting, whereas in Ukraine, fraud has diminished considerably since the second round of its 2004 presidential election where between 1.5 to 3 million votes were falsified. The volume concludes with a consideration of data from the United States to illustrate the dangers of the application of our methods without due consideration of an election's substantive context and the characteristics of the data at hand. Half-title......Page 3 Dedication......Page 4 Title......Page 5 Copyright......Page 6 Contents......Page 7 List of Tables......Page 9 List of Figures......Page 11 Introduction......Page 17 1.1 Fraud and Forensics......Page 28 1.2 The Special Relevance of Russia and Ukraine......Page 41 1.3 Outline......Page 45 2.1 Indicators......Page 46 2.2 Turnout and Absolute Vote......Page 48 2.3 The Distribution of Turnout......Page 58 2.4 Stuffed Ballot Boxes versus Stolen Votes......Page 60 2.5 The Flow of Votes......Page 63 Relative Performance......Page 69 An Empirical Illustration......Page 71 Simulation Setup......Page 75 Simulation Results......Page 79 2.8 Overview......Page 85 3.1 Suspicious Anomalies of Russian Elections......Page 87 3.2 The Distribution of Turnout......Page 98 3.3 Who Wins the Extra Votes......Page 106 3.4 The Flow of Votes......Page 117 3.5 Republics versus Oblasts......Page 125 3.6 Trends in Russian "Democracy" and the 2007 Duma Vote......Page 132 3.7 Players and Motives......Page 151 4.1 Rounds 1 and 2, 2004......Page 154 Distribution of Turnout......Page 158 Turnout versus Time......Page 161 Turnout and Share of the Eligible Electorate......Page 164 The Flow of Votes......Page 175 Turnout......Page 178 Flow of Votes......Page 180 Turnout and Share of Eligible Electorate......Page 181 4.3 Motives......Page 194 5.1 The Parliamentary Election of 2006......Page 199 5.2 The 2007 Contest......Page 213 5.3 Conclusions......Page 243 6.1 California, North Carolina, and Arizona......Page 249 San Francisco......Page 253 North Carolina......Page 254 Arizona......Page 258 6.2 Florida......Page 260 Idaho......Page 263 Texas......Page 265 Franklin and Cuyahoga Counties......Page 269 Hamilton County......Page 273 6.5 Conclusions......Page 281 References......Page 293 Index......Page 295 This Volume Offers A Number Of Forensic Indicators Of Election Fraud Applied To Official Election Returns And Tests And Illustrates Their Application In Russia And Ukraine. Included Are The Methodology's Econometric Details And Theoretical Assumptions. The Applications To Russia Include The Analysis Of All Federal Elections Between 1996 And 2007 And, For Ukraine, Between 2004 And 2007. Generally, We Find That Fraud Has Metastasized Within The Russian Polity During Putin's Administration With Upwards Of 10 Million Or More Suspect Votes In Both The 2004 And 2007 Balloting, Whereas In Ukraine, Fraud Has Diminished Considerably Since The Second Round Of Its 2004 Presidential Election In Which Between 1.5 Million And 3 Million Votes Were Falsified. The Volume Concludes With A Consideration Of Data From The United States To Illustrate The Dangers Of The Application Of Our Methods Without Due Consideration Of An Election's Substantive Context And The Characteristics Of The Data At Hand. --book Jacket. A Forensics Approach To Detecting Election Fraud -- The Fingerprints Of Fraud -- Russia -- Ukraine 2004 -- Ukraine 2006 And 2007 -- The United States. Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 275-277) And Index. This volume offers a number of forensic indicators of election fraud applied to official election returns, and tests and illustrates their application in Russia and Ukraine. Included are the methodology's econometric details and theoretical assumptions. The applications to Russia include the analysis of all federal elections between 1996 and 2007 and, for Ukraine, between 2004 and 2007. Generally, we find that fraud has metastasized within the Russian polity during Putin's administration with upwards of 10 million or more suspect votes in both the 2004 and 2007 balloting, whereas in Ukraine, fraud has diminished considerably since the second round of its 2004 presidential election where between 1.5 and 3 million votes were falsified. The volume concludes with a consideration of data from the United States to illustrate the dangers of the application of our methods without due consideration of an election's substantive context and the characteristics of the data at hand. This volume identifies forensic indicators of election fraud applied to official election returns, and tests and illustrates their application in Russia and Ukraine