The Five Futures Glasses : How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model

This is an inspiring, and practical book about seeing more of the future markets than the competitors. It is the first comprehensive model for analyzing and managing the future systematically and effectively. The five futures glasses and the 'Eltville Model' are simple, but thorough tools to improve thinking and communicating about the future. Many problems in management and in life result from people's different views on the future. People subconsciously assume that everyone understands how they think and talk about the future in the same way as they do. They assume that everyone is wearing the same 'futures glasses' which often causes misunderstanding, frustration and failure. The five futures glasses described in this book make it easier to see and understand more of the future: 1. The blue futures glasses are for assumptions about the probable future of your environment 2. The red futures glasses are for possible surprises in your environment 3. The green futures glasses are for opportunities to create a better future 4. The yellow futures glasses are for your vision of a desired future 5. The violet futures glasses are for your planned future and for your actions. The five futures glasses and the resulting "Eltville Model" bridge the gap between everyday life and futures research. They have been developed through research in more than a thousand workshops and projects with non-profit organizations as well as with leading corporations around the world, such as BOSCH, Microsoft, BAYER, AstraZeneca, Roche, Ernst+Young, Ford, Vodafone, EADS and Nestle. This model provides you with a road map for thinking and communicating about the future and a comprehensive structure for your future projects as well as your strategy. In addition, the Eltville Model helps you to apply the common foresight tools much more effectively Cover......Page 1 Contents......Page 6 List of figures......Page 12 List of tables......Page 13 About the author......Page 14 The five futures glasses as a mental map for futures......Page 16 The goals of this book......Page 19 What can this book do and what can't it do?......Page 21 Remarks......Page 22 Man's motives for foresight......Page 23 From futures research to future management......Page 25 The importance of future management......Page 26 Goals and fruits of future management......Page 29 Futures confusions......Page 30 Goals confusion......Page 32 Role confusion......Page 37 Method confusion......Page 40 What is required in practice......Page 42 A map of futures......Page 44 Futures, not future......Page 45 Types of futures......Page 46 How imaginable are futures?......Page 47 How probable are futures?......Page 48 How creatable are futures?......Page 51 How desirable are futures?......Page 54 From futures to futures glasses......Page 56 How you can easily remember the five futures glasses......Page 59 An overview of the five futures glasses......Page 61 4 Your blue futures glasses: What lies ahead?......Page 64 Your blue futures glasses: Overview......Page 65 Case studies on the blue futures glasses......Page 67 You firm up the basis of your decisions and strategies......Page 73 You improve your orientation and security......Page 74 You better understand what is happening today......Page 75 You form attractors for knowledge about the future......Page 76 Core concepts of the blue futures glasses......Page 77 Assumption questions......Page 78 Future factors......Page 79 Signals......Page 81 Future projections......Page 82 Assumptions about the future......Page 84 Assume the future to be largely unpredictable......Page 86 Direct the blue futures glasses towards your environment......Page 88 Adopt a realistic and conservative attitude......Page 89 You cannot carry out a complete assumption analysis......Page 90 Use assumptions about the future as a replacement for impossible future "knowledge"......Page 91 You cannot delegate your assumptions about the future......Page 92 Improve your assumptions about the future by being affected personally......Page 93 Improve your assumptions about the future through a wide base of support......Page 94 Procedure for companies......Page 96 Procedure for life entrepreneurs......Page 99 Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 100 5 Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you?......Page 102 Your red futures glasses: Overview......Page 103 Case studies on the red futures glasses......Page 105 You make the future easier to think about, handle and communicate about uncertainty......Page 110 You can see more of the possible future and are therefore less surprised by the future......Page 111 You protect yourself and your futures strategy......Page 112 You perceive more future opportunities......Page 115 Core concepts of the red futures glasses......Page 116 Surprise questions......Page 117 Surprises......Page 118 Direct the red futures glasses to your environment......Page 122 Look for improbabilities......Page 123 Spread possible stress more evenly in future......Page 124 Don't expect orientation from surprises......Page 125 Look for plausible surprises......Page 126 The number of possible surprises is increasing......Page 127 The relevance comes from the potential effects......Page 128 See your vulnerabilities in flexibility sacrifices......Page 129 Stake out the area of possibilities with extremes......Page 131 Reduce the effect of filters and barriers......Page 132 Arrange for insider and outsider knowledge......Page 133 Take a pragmatic approach in the scenarios......Page 134 Methodology checklists......Page 135 Procedure for companies......Page 136 Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 140 6 Your green futures glasses: Which future opportunities do you have?......Page 142 Your green futures glasses: Overview......Page 143 Case studies on the green futures glasses......Page 144 You can see more of the possible future......Page 148 You increase your probability of success......Page 149 You have a better view of what the competition could do......Page 150 You can better handle future developments......Page 151 Core concepts of the green futures glasses......Page 152 Opportunity questions......Page 153 Future opportunities......Page 154 Use future opportunities to form the basis for your competitiveness......Page 156 Look through the green futures glasses with the eyes of a beginner......Page 157 Prohibit any form of criticism with the green futures glasses......Page 158 Look for opportunities at an early stage......Page 159 Big opportunities hold big risks and vice-versa......Page 160 Don't look for opportunities that are completely new to the world......Page 161 Recognize the danger of not seizing opportunities......Page 162 Be more honorable than the "fast followers"......Page 163 You can only determine the value of an opportunity imprecisely......Page 164 Carefully select which future opportunities you want to leave to the competition......Page 165 Foster modest and sensible expectations......Page 166 Procedure for companies......Page 167 Procedure for life entrepreneurs......Page 172 Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 173 7 Your yellow futures glasses: Which future do you want to form?......Page 175 Your yellow futures glasses: Overview......Page 177 Case studies on the yellow futures glasses......Page 179 You can manage your company as a complex adaptive system more easily......Page 185 You provide orientation for yourself and your team......Page 186 You determine and form the future you want to have......Page 187 You activate your performance potential......Page 188 You decide more easily what is important and right......Page 189 You impart confidence in difficult times......Page 190 You become more successful overall......Page 191 Vision questions......Page 192 Strategic vision (vision elements)......Page 193 Mission (mission elements)......Page 194 Attitude and principles of the yellow futures glasses......Page 195 Benefit from self-fulfillment......Page 196 Develop the strategic vision from future opportunities......Page 197 You can live without a vision, your company cannot......Page 198 Design your vision as a picture......Page 199 Developing your vision is your task, not someone else's......Page 200 Believe in self-responsibility......Page 202 Believe that the future can be deliberately created......Page 204 Ignite and promote passion for the vision......Page 205 Strengthen the joint vision through coherence of the individual visions......Page 206 Form harmony with the whole......Page 208 See a homeopathic amount of challenge as ideal......Page 209 Orient your vision on achievable competences and resources......Page 212 Don't overload your customers with innovations......Page 213 Make your vision as precise as necessary, as complex as required and as flexible as possible......Page 214 Form the necessary differentiation with vision candidates......Page 215 The higher the organizational level, the more general your results for the yellow futures glasses will be......Page 217 What is decisive is not the achievement of your vision, but its effect on the present......Page 218 Procedure for companies......Page 219 Procedure for life entrepreneurs......Page 222 Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 225 8 Your violet futures glasses: What are you planning to do?......Page 227 Your violet futures glasses: Overview......Page 228 Case studies on the violet futures glasses......Page 229 Purpose of the violet futures glasses......Page 232 You increase the probability and degree of your success......Page 233 Core concepts of the violet futures glasses......Page 234 Strategy and futures strategy......Page 235 Strategic goals......Page 237 Additional core concepts......Page 238 Backcast based on your vision......Page 239 Be clear about the goals......Page 240 First think of the strategy and then the structure......Page 241 Balance efficiency and flexibility......Page 242 Maximize the congruence of individual and common goals......Page 243 Goals and strategies need to be important to your subconscious mind, less so to your conscious mind......Page 244 Make your futures strategy robust......Page 245 Choose one of seven types of eventual strategy......Page 246 Procedure for companies......Page 249 Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 252 Process model and object model......Page 254 The core concepts of the Eltville Model......Page 255 Organize your thoughts......Page 256 Gain more insight from newspapers, books, lectures and films......Page 258 Organize your toolbox......Page 259 Make more of your future......Page 260 Core concepts of the Eltville Model......Page 261 Notes......Page 265 Bibliography......Page 270 Index......Page 276 "'If leaders and managers are to learn anything from the years of crisis it is that they must develop future thinking skills. Based on Pero Micic rigorous research and many years of experience, The Five Futures Glasses provides essential, exciting and effective ideas, techniques and tools for learning about the future in the present. This book is much needed!'Jeff Gold, Professor of Organization Learning, Leeds Business School" "'I hope that this book will be available in Chinese very soon, for the millions of Chinese readers, who can greatly benefit from Pero Micic unique and comprehensive way of managing the future.'SK How, China Hair and Beauty Association" "'You need an integrated framework to process, digest and act on information about the future. The Eltville Model is the first really effective framework to do this.'Richard C.M. Wong, Chairman of Vistage, Malaysia & Singapore" "Praise for German edition:" "'The Eltville Model, with the five futures glasses, is the most comprehensive and integrated model of strategy development using the perspectives and tools of strategic foresight that I know.'Dr Peter Bishop, Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight, University of Houston" "'The Eltville Model is the most effective strategy development tool that we have used so far at Continental.'Dr Hartmut Wiihter, Continental" "'This valuable system with the five futures glasses made sure we achieved very good results within a very short time.'Dr Georg Oenbrink, Degussa Evonik" "Many problems in management and in life result from people's differing views on the future. People subconsciously assume that everyone thinks and talks about the future in the same way as they do. They assume that everyone is wearing the same "futures glasses", which often causes misunderstanding, frustration and failure." "The five futures glasses described in this book make it easier to see and understand more of the future:" "1. The blue futures glasses for assumptions about the probable future of your environment" "2. The red futures glasses for possible surprises in your environment" "3. The green futures glasses for opportunities to create a better future" "4. The yellow futures glasses for your vision of a desired future" "5. The violet futures glasses for your planned future and for your actions." "The five futures glasses and the resulting "Eltville Model" bridge the gap between everyday life and futures research. They have been developed through research in more than a thousand workshops and projects with non-profit organizations as well as with leading corporations around the world, such as BOSCH, Microsoft, BAYER, AstraZeneca, Roche, Ernst+Young, Ford, Vodafone, EADS and NestlT. This model provides you with a mental map for thinking and communicating about the future and with a comprehensive structure for your futures projects as well as your strategy. In addition, the Eltville Model helps you to apply the common foresight tools much more effectively."--Jacket