The Fate of Sudan : The Origins and Consequences of a Flawed Peace Process

In 2005, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) ended one of Africa's most devastating civil wars and set the stage for the partition of Sudan, Africa's largest country. One of the most important peace agreements in African history, it has had decisive consequences for the entire Horn of Africa. Yet to date there has been little rigorous analysis as to why the parties signed the CPA, what strategies they adopted having signed the agreement, and the political consequences of state partition actually are. In The Fate of Sudan, John Young argues forcefully that the birth of the independent state of Southern Sudan and the threat of further dismemberment of a rump northern Sudan are due to the failure of the approaches and ideologies of the main Sudanese parties, as well as a deeply flawed US-backed peace process that excludes civil society and rebel groups. Written by an insider directly involved in the Sudanese election and referendum processes, and featuring a wealth of first-hand evidence, this is a crucial examination of a topic of intense political and media interest. About the Author......Page 3 Title page......Page 4 Contents......Page 6 Acknowledgments......Page 8 Abbreviations......Page 9 Map of Sudan and South Sudan......Page 0 Preface......Page 14 The Sudanese State Historically......Page 22 Theoretical Context......Page 25 1 Protagonists and Peace Partners: The NCP and the SPLM......Page 38 NCP and Political Islam......Page 39 SPLM/A......Page 65 Armed Struggle, 1983–91......Page 71 Revolt of the Doctors......Page 75 From War to Peace......Page 78 SPLM/A: Organization, Orientation, and Leadership......Page 82 SPLM/A, Administration, and Relations with the People......Page 90 Conclusion......Page 96 2 A Flawed Approach to Peacemaking......Page 100 Pre-IGAD Efforts at Peacemaking......Page 101 The First Sudan IGAD Peace Initiative......Page 103 The Second IGAD Peace Initiative: May 2002 to January 2005......Page 109 From Two-Party Dominance to the Dominance of Two People......Page 121 The Challenge of an Inclusive Peace Process......Page 130 A Peace Process without Trust......Page 137 The US and Its Allies......Page 142 Limits of Mediation......Page 149 Conclusion......Page 152 3 Dispensing with Democracy: The April 2010 Elections......Page 155 Democratic Accountability and the National Elections......Page 156 Elections......Page 165 Observing the Observers......Page 185 Conclusion......Page 192 4 Confirming the Inevitable: The January 2011 Referendum......Page 198 Right to Self-Determination......Page 199 March to the Referendum......Page 202 Confronting Party Contradictions......Page 207 Tensions between the Peace Partners......Page 218 Confronting the Internal Opposition......Page 227 A Final Word from President Omar al-Bashir......Page 232 Referendum Mechanics......Page 233 The International Community and the Referendum......Page 239 Conclusion......Page 242 5 The Three Areas: Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan, and Abyei......Page 247 Background to the Popular Consultations......Page 248 Blue Nile Popular Consultation......Page 252 Blue Nile Hearings......Page 255 Southern Kordofan Elections and Popular Consultations......Page 263 Southern Kordofan Elections......Page 268 Abyei......Page 279 Local Perspectives......Page 281 Rising Political Tensions......Page 284 Crisis in Kordofan......Page 293 Conclusion......Page 308 6 A Changing Landscape: Political Transitions in South and North Sudan......Page 310 End of Internal Unity in the South......Page 312 Revolt of the Regions......Page 316 Revolt in the Periphery......Page 325 Building an Economy of Dependency......Page 346 Regime Change in the North?......Page 348 The NCP, a Broad-based Government, and Constitution-making......Page 354 Divisions in the NCP......Page 363 Northern Economy......Page 366 Conclusion......Page 369 Conclusion: The Legacy of a Flawed Peace Process......Page 373 Peacemaking Gone Wrong......Page 375 Postscript......Page 381 Notes......Page 385 References......Page 393 Index......Page 399 About the Author 3 Title page 4 Contents 6 Acknowledgments 8 Abbreviations 9 Map of Sudan and South Sudan 1 Preface 14 Introduction: The Failures of Liberal Peacemaking in Sudan 22 The Sudanese State Historically 22 Theoretical Context 25 1 Protagonists and Peace Partners: The NCP and the SPLM 38 NCP and Political Islam 39 SPLM/A 65 Armed Struggle, 1983–91 71 Revolt of the Doctors 75 From War to Peace 78 SPLM/A: Organization, Orientation, and Leadership 82 SPLM/A, Administration, and Relations with the People 90 Conclusion 96 2 A Flawed Approach to Peacemaking 100 Pre-IGAD Efforts at Peacemaking 101 The First Sudan IGAD Peace Initiative 103 The Second IGAD Peace Initiative: May 2002 to January 2005 109 From Two-Party Dominance to the Dominance of Two People 121 The Challenge of an Inclusive Peace Process 130 A Peace Process without Trust 137 The US and Its Allies 142 Limits of Mediation 149 Conclusion 152 3 Dispensing with Democracy: The April 2010 Elections 155 Democratic Accountability and the National Elections 156 Elections 165 Observing the Observers 185 Conclusion 192 4 Confirming the Inevitable: The January 2011 Referendum 198 Right to Self-Determination 199 March to the Referendum 202 Confronting Party Contradictions 207 Tensions between the Peace Partners 218 Confronting the Internal Opposition 227 A Final Word from President Omar al-Bashir 232 Referendum Mechanics 233 The International Community and the Referendum 239 Conclusion 242 5 The Three Areas: Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan, and Abyei 247 Background to the Popular Consultations 248 Blue Nile Popular Consultation 252 Blue Nile Hearings 255 Southern Kordofan Elections and Popular Consultations 263 Southern Kordofan Elections 268 Abyei 279 Local Perspectives 281 Rising Political Tensions 284 Crisis in Kordofan 293 Conclusion 308 6 A Changing Landscape: Political Transitions in South and North Sudan 310 End of Internal Unity in the South 312 Revolt of the Regions 316 Revolt in the Periphery 325 Building an Economy of Dependency 346 Regime Change in the North? 348 The NCP, a Broad-based Government, and Constitution-making 354 Divisions in the NCP 363 Northern Economy 366 Conclusion 369 Conclusion: The Legacy of a Flawed Peace Process 373 Peacemaking Gone Wrong 375 Postscript 381 Notes 385 References 393 Index 399 "In 2005, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) ended one of Africa's most devastating civil wars and set the stage for the partition of Sudan, Africa's largest country. One of the most important peace agreements in African history, it has had decisive consequences for the entire Horn of Africa. Yet to date there has been little rigorous analysis as to why the parties signed the CPA, what strategies they adopted having signed the agreement, and the political consequences of state partition actually are. In The Fate of Sudan, John Young argues forcefully that the birth of the independent state of Southern Sudan and the threat of further dismemberment of a rump northern Sudan are due to the failure of the approaches and ideologies of the main Sudanese parties, as well as a deeply flawed US-backed peace process that excludes civil society and other rebel groups. Written by someone directly involved in the Sudanese election and referendum processes, and featuring a wealth of first-hand evidence, this is a crucial examination of a topic of intense political and media interest."-- Provided by publisher The Fate of Sudan argues forcefully that the birth of the independent state of South Sudan and the threat of further dismemberment of northern Sudan are due to the failure of the approaches and ideologies of the main Sudanese parties, as well as a deeply flawed US-backed peace process that excluded civil society and other rebel groups. Written by someone directly involved in the Sudanese referendum, this is a crucial examination of a topic of intense political and media interest