The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. Volume II. Conventional Balance, Asymmetric Forces, and US Forces

A Report of the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy, June2013. Center for Strategic & International Studies, Rowman & Littlefield. - 216 c. ISBN: 978-1-4422-2517-6. About CSIS—50th Anniversary Year. Executive Summary . The "Conventional" Warfare Balance. The Asymmetric or Irregular Warfare Balance. US Forces in the ROK and Pacific. The "Conventional" Military Balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia . Deterrence, Restraint, and Levels of Conflict. A Clash or Conflict between the DPRK and ROK . The Impact of External Actors. Levels of "Conventional" Conflict. Open-Ended Scenarios and Escalation Ladders. Comparing Total "Conventional" Orders of Battle with Possible Combat Scenarios . Total Manpower. Armyand Land Forces. Naval and Marine Forces. Air and Air Defense Forces, and DPRK Artillery, MRLs, Rockets, and Missiles. Fixed Wing Aircraft. Rotary Wing Aircraft. Surface-to-Air Missiles and Anti-Aircraft Guns. Conventional Artillery and Surface-to-Surface Rockets and Missiles as a Counterbalance to Limits in Airpower. 30 HQ-6D Red Leader . Paramilitary Forces. DPRK . Leadership and Command and Control. Force Size and Structure. Potential Invasion Scenarios and Capacities. Military Personnel. ROK . Responsibilities and Doctrine. Indigenous Equipment Development. Uncertain Patterns of Conflict and Escalation . Cheonan. Yeonpyeong. Political Fallout. Additional Issues and Scenarios. US. China . The 2013 Chinese Defense White Paper. China's Improving Conventional Capabilities. Ground Forces. Air and Air Defense Forces. Naval Forces. Japan . Japanese Security Policies. The 2012 Japanese Defense White Paper. Russia. Korean Special, Asymmetric, and Paramilitary Forces . Paramilitary, Police, Internal Security, and Special Forces. DPRK. ROK . Counterterrorism, Terrorism, and low-level asymmetric Warfai. DPRK. ROK . DPRK Drug and Weapons Sales and Other Illegal Activities. Drug's. Pharmaceuticals and Cigarettes. Supernotes, Insurance, and Trafficking. Illicit Revenue and the DPRK's Official Stance. Weapons Sales . ROK Weapons Sales. DPRK: Cyber, Economic Warfare, and SIGINT Capabilities. Cyber. Economic Warfare and SIGINT . ROK Cyber Defense. US Forces in Korea and the Pacific . USFK-ROK History. The Current Status ofthe USFK-ROK Alliance. US Forces in Korea. Comparative Capabilities. USFK Relocation. Military Exercises. Military Operation Plans . US Forces Japan (UFJ). US Deployments in Japan. The Strengths and Weakness ofthe US-Japanese Alliance. Resolving the Okinawa Issue? . UnitedStates Pacific Command (US PACOM). The Prelude to "Rebalancing". The 2012 Shifts in Strategy. The Total Size of PACOM Forces . The US and Extended Regional Deterrence. About the Authors . A Report of the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy, June2013. Center for Strategic & International Studies, Rowman & Littlefield. - 216 c.ISBN: 978-1-4422-2517-6.About CSIS—50th Anniversary Year.**Executive Summary**.The "Conventional" Warfare Balance.The Asymmetric or Irregular Warfare Balance.US Forces in the ROK and Pacific.**The "Conventional" Military Balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia**.Deterrence, Restraint, and Levels of Conflict.__A Clash or Conflict between the DPRK and ROK__.The Impact of External Actors.Levels of "Conventional" Conflict.__Open-Ended Scenarios and Escalation Ladders.Comparing Total "Conventional" Orders of Battle with Possible Combat Scenarios__.Total Manpower.Armyand Land Forces.Naval and Marine Forces.Air and Air Defense Forces, and DPRK Artillery, MRLs, Rockets, and Missiles.__Fixed Wing Aircraft.Rotary Wing Aircraft.Surface-to-Air Missiles and Anti-Aircraft Guns.Conventional Artillery and Surface-to-Surface Rockets and Missiles as a Counterbalance to Limits in Airpower.30 HQ-6D Red Leader__.**Paramilitary Forces.DPRK**.Leadership and Command and Control.Force Size and Structure.Potential Invasion Scenarios and Capacities.Military Personnel.**ROK**.Responsibilities and Doctrine.Indigenous Equipment Development.**Uncertain Patterns of Conflict and Escalation**.Cheonan.Yeonpyeong.Political Fallout.Additional Issues and Scenarios.**US.China**.The 2013 Chinese Defense White Paper.China's Improving Conventional Capabilities.Ground Forces.Air and Air Defense Forces.Naval Forces.**Japan**.Japanese Security Policies.The 2012 Japanese Defense White Paper.**Russia.Korean Special, Asymmetric, and Paramilitary Forces**.Paramilitary, Police, Internal Security, and Special Forces.__DPRK.ROK__.Counterterrorism, Terrorism, and low-level asymmetric Warfai.__DPRK.ROK__.DPRK Drug and Weapons Sales and Other Illegal Activities.__Drug's.Pharmaceuticals and Cigarettes.Supernotes, Insurance, and Trafficking.Illicit Revenue and the DPRK's Official Stance.Weapons Sales__.ROK Weapons Sales.DPRK: Cyber, Economic Warfare, and SIGINT Capabilities.__Cyber.Economic Warfare and SIGINT__.ROK Cyber Defense.**US Forces in Korea and the Pacific**.USFK-ROK History.The Current Status ofthe USFK-ROK Alliance.US Forces in Korea.__Comparative Capabilities.USFK Relocation.Military Exercises.Military Operation Plans__.US Forces Japan (UFJ).__US Deployments in Japan.The Strengths and Weakness ofthe US-Japanese Alliance.Resolving the Okinawa Issue?__.UnitedStates Pacific Command (US PACOM).__The Prelude to "Rebalancing".The 2012 Shifts in Strategy.The Total Size of PACOM Forces__.The US and Extended Regional Deterrence.**About the Authors**. About CSIS—50th Anniversary Year.Executive Summary.The "Conventional" Warfare Balance.The Asymmetric or Irregular Warfare Balance.US Forces in the ROK and Pacific.The "Conventional" Military Balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia.Deterrence, Restraint, and Levels of Conflict.A Clash or Conflict between the DPRK and ROK.The Impact of External Actors.Levels of "Conventional" Conflict.Open-Ended Scenarios and Escalation Ladders.Comparing Total "Conventional" Orders of Battle with Possible Combat Scenarios.Total Manpower.Armyand Land Forces.Naval and Marine Forces.Air and Air Defense Forces, and DPRK Artillery, MRLs, Rockets, and Missiles.Fixed Wing Aircraft.Rotary Wing Aircraft.Surface-to-Air Missiles and Anti-Aircraft Guns.Conventional Artillery and Surface-to-Surface Rockets and Missiles as a Counterbalance to Limits in Airpower.30 HQ-6D Red Leader.Paramilitary Forces.DPRK.Leadership and Command and Control.Force Size and Structure.Potential Invasion Scenarios and Capacities.Military Personnel.ROK.Responsibilities and Doctrine.Indigenous Equipment Development.Uncertain Patterns of Conflict and Escalation.Cheonan.Yeonpyeong.Political Fallout.Additional Issues and Scenarios.US.China.The 2013 Chinese Defense White Paper.China's Improving Conventional Capabilities.Ground Forces.Air and Air Defense Forces.Naval Forces.Japan.Japanese Security Policies.The 2012 Japanese Defense White Paper.Russia.Korean Special, Asymmetric, and Paramilitary Forces.Paramilitary, Police, Internal Security, and Special Forces.DPRK.ROK.Counterterrorism, Terrorism, and low-level asymmetric Warfai.DPRK.ROK.DPRK Drug and Weapons Sales and Other Illegal Activities.Drug's.Pharmaceuticals and Cigarettes.Supernotes, Insurance, and Trafficking.Illicit Revenue and the DPRK's Official Stance.Weapons Sales.ROK Weapons Sales.DPRK: Cyber, Economic Warfare, and SIGINT Capabilities.Cyber.Economic Warfare and SIGINT.ROK Cyber Defense.US Forces in Korea and the Pacific.USFK-ROK History.The Current Status of the USFK-ROK Alliance.US Forces in Korea.Comparative Capabilities.USFK Relocation.Military Exercises.Military Operation Plans.US Forces Japan (UFJ).US Deployments in Japan.The Strengths and Weakness ofthe US-Japanese Alliance.Resolving the Okinawa Issue?.UnitedStates Pacific Command (US PACOM).The Prelude to "Rebalancing".The 2012 Shifts in Strategy.The Total Size of PACOM Forces.The US and Extended Regional Deterrence.About the Authors. Describes the strategy, force deployments, and the military balance in potential current and future scenarios involving the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, People's Republic of China, Japan, and the United States. The analysis in these volumes shows how tensions between the Koreas -- and the potential involvement of the China, Japan, Russia, and the United States -- create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These range from posturing and threats ("wars of intimidation") to a major conventional conflict on the Korean Peninsula to intervention by outside powers like the United States and China to the extreme of nuclear conflict. The analysis shows that the Korean balance is sharply affected by the uncertain mix of cooperation and competition between the United States and China. The U.S. rebalancing of its forces to Asia and the steady modernization of Chinese forces, in particular the growth of Chinese sea-air-missile capabilities, affect the balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia. They also raise the possibility of far more intense conflicts that could extend far beyond the boundaries of the Koreas. This volume compares the conventional military forces and asymmetric warfare forces of North Korea, South Korea, the United States, China, Japan, and Russia that shape the balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia describes the strategy, force deployments, and the military balance in potential current and future scenarios involving the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, People's Republic of China, Japan, and the United States. The analysis in these volumes shows how tensions between the Koreas—and the potential involvement of the China, Japan, Russia, and the United States—create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These range from posturing and threats (“wars of intimidation”) to a major conventional conflict on the Korean Peninsula to intervention by outside powers like the United States and China to the extreme of nuclear conflict. The analysis shows that the Korean balance is sharply affected by the uncertain mix of cooperation and competition between the United States and China. The U.S. rebalancing of its forces to Asia and the steady modernization of Chinese forces, in particular the growth of Chinese sea-air-missile capabilities, affect the balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia. They also raise the possibility of far more intense conflicts that could extend far beyond the boundaries of the Koreas. The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia describes the strategy, force deployments, and the military balance in potential current and future scenarios involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United States.