The Epicenter of Crisis: The New Middle East (Washington Quarterly Readers)

__The Epicenter of Crisis__ argues that six contiguous states epitomize the security challenges of a post-9/11, globalized, world: Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Characterized by a dramatically transforming Islam, ethnic conflict, civil war, failed states, and terrorism, this "new Middle East" is the epicenter of what some call an arc of crisis, stretching from the Balkans into Southeast Asia. __The Epicenter of Crisis__ examines this geopolitically dynamic region, analyzing the changing role of Islam in these six critical countries, the dangers posed by potential failed states, and the evolving terrorist threat. The contributors, all specialists in Middle East or foreign policy, address such crucial issues as the relationship between the Saudi royal family and Al Quaeda, Syria's waning influence over Hizbollah, media coverage of the war in Iraq, a new U.S. strategy for dealing with Iran, Afghanistan's opium industry, and the effectiveness of U.S. multi-billion-dollar assistance to Pakistan. __The Epicenter of Crisis__ challenges readers to reconceptualize the boundaries of the Middle East in a changed world.

The Epicenter of Crisis argues that six contiguous states epitomize the security challenges of a post-9/11, globalized, world: Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Characterized by a dramatically transforming Islam, ethnic conflict, civil war, failed states, and terrorism, this "new Middle East" is the epicenter of what some call an arc of crisis, stretching from the Balkans into Southeast Asia. The Epicenter of Crisis examines this geopolitically dynamic region, analyzing the changing role of Islam in these six critical countries,the dangers posed by potential failed states, and the evolving terrorist threat. The contributors,all specialists in Middle East or foreign policy, address such crucial issues as the relationship between the Saudi royal family and Al Quaeda, Syria's waning influence over Hizbollah, media coverage of the war in Iraq, a new U.S. strategy for dealing with Iran, Afghanistan's opium industry, and the effectiveness of U.S. multi-billion-dollar assistance to Pakistan. The Epicenter of Crisis challenges readers to reconceptualize the boundaries of the Middle East in a changed world. ContributorsJohn R. Bradley, Rachel Bronson, Daniel Byman, Derek Chollet, Craig Cohen, Larry Diamond, Emile El-Hokayem, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brian Fishman, Graham E. Fuller, Husain Haqqani,Elliot Hen-Tov, Jorrit Kamminga, Nina Kamp, Alexander T. J. Lennon, Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, C.

Raja Mohan, Michael O'Hanlon, Gwenn Okruhlik, Carlos Pascual, Kenneth M. Pollack, Dennis Ross, Karim Sadjadpour, Ashley Tellis, Peter van Ham, Eyal ZisserAlexander T. J. Lennon is editor-in-chief of The Washington Quarterly, the journal of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

He is the editor of Reshaping Rogue States: Preemption, Regime Change, and U.S. Policy Toward Iran,Iraq, and North Korea (MIT Press, 2004) and other Washington Quarterly Readers.

Title Page 4 Copyright 5 Contents 6 Introduction: The Epicenter of Crisis • Alexander T. J. Lennon 8 Part I: Saudi Arabia 14 Rethinking Religion: The Legacy of the U.S.-Saudi Relationship • Rachel Bronson 16 Al Qaeda and the House of Saud: Eternal Enemies or Secret Bedfellows? • John R. Bradley 35 The Irony of Islah (Reform) • Gwenn Okruhlik 51 Part II: Syria 72 Bashar Al-Assad: In or Out of the New World Order? • Eyal Zisser 74 U.S. Policy toward a Weak Assad • Dennis Ross 94 Confronting Syrian-Backed Terrorism • Daniel Byman 108 Hizballah and Syria: Outgrowing the Proxy Relationship • Emile El-Hokayem 125 Part III: Iraq 146 The Critical Battles: Political Reconciliation and Reconstruction in Iraq • Carlos Pascual and Kenneth M. Pollack 148 Is the Media Being Fair in Iraq? • Michael O’Hanlon and Nina Kamp 163 After Zarqawi: The Dilemmas and Future of Al Qaeda in Iraq • Brian Fishman 178 Part IV: Iran 196 A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran • Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond 198 The Hizballah-Iran Connection: Model for Sunni Resistance • Graham E. Fuller 220 Understanding Iran's New Authoritarianism • Elliot Hen-Tov 234 How Relevant Is the Iranian Street? • Karim Sadjadpour 254 Part V: Afganistan 268 Poppies for Peace: Reforming Afghanistan's Opium Industry • Peter van Ham and Jorrit Kamminga 270 Afghanistan: When Counternarcotics Undermines Counterterrorism • Vanda Felbab-Brown 286 Part VI: Pakistan 308 When $10 Billion Is Not Enough: Rethinking U.S. Strategy toward Pakistan • Craig Cohen and Derek Chollet 310 U.S. Strategy: Assisting Pakistan's Transformation • Ashley J. Tellis 326 What If Pakistan Fails? India Isn't Worried ... Yet • C. Raja Mohan 349 The Role of Islam in Pakistan's Future • Husain Haqqani 363 Analysis of the security challenges presented by six states in the crucible of post-9/11 geopolitical change: Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The Epicenter of Crisis argues that six contiguous states epitomize the security challenges of a post-9/11, globalized, world: Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Characterized by a dramatically transforming Islam, ethnic conflict, civil war, failed states, and terrorism, this "new Middle East" is the epicenter of what some call an arc of crisis, stretching from the Balkans into Southeast Asia. The Epicenter of Crisis examines this geopolitically dynamic region, analyzing the changing role of Islam in these six critical countries, the dangers posed by potential failed states, and the evolving terrorist threat. The contributors, all specialists in Middle East or foreign policy, address such crucial issues as the relationship between the Saudi royal family and Al Quaeda, Syria's waning influence over Hizbollah, media coverage of the war in Iraq, a new U.S. strategy for dealing with Iran, Afghanistan's opium industry, and the effectiveness of U.S. multi-billion-dollar assistance to Pakistan. The Epicenter of Crisis challenges readers to reconceptualize the boundaries of the Middle East in a changed world. Contributors: John R. Bradley, Rachel Bronson, Daniel Byman, Derek Chollet, Craig Cohen, Larry Diamond, Emile El-Hokayem, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brian Fishman, Graham E. Fuller, Husain Haqqani, Elliot Hen-Tov, Jorrit Kamminga, Nina Kamp, Alexander T. J. Lennon, Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, C. Raja Mohan, Michael O'Hanlon, Gwenn Okruhlik, Carlos Pascual, Kenneth M. Pollack, Dennis Ross, Karim Sadjadpour, Ashley Tellis, Peter van Ham, Eyal Zisser