پایان یورو: آینده ناآرام اتحادیه اروپا

The End of the Euro begins with an overview of the birth of the euro itself. Understanding this history is essential to understand the anomalies built into the project from the beginning. These anomalies form the subject of chapter two, along with how they led to the situation that turned Greece, Portugal, and Spain into euro-destroying economic disaster areas. Chapter three shows how this was not an unforeseeable situation, as Europe's history is filled with earlier failed attempts to build monetary unions. Chapter four is focused on Germany, by far the most important country within EMU, and why the chances of Germany leaving the union are much higher than is generally assumed. The book concludes with an analysis of what lies in wait for the remains of the monetary union — and for a deeply divided and troubled continent in general. Either the EMU transforms itself fundamentally or it disintegrates. From noted economic journalist Johan Van Overtveldt: an up-to-the-minute examination of the fate of the euro. In The End of the Euro, Van Overtveldt shows how uniting Germany, France, Italy, and other Euoprean countries with a single currency and monetary policy - but without a true political union to govern it - could only ever result in major imbalances between the members countries, and threaten the stability of the European Union itself. This was recognized from the start by many economists and other observers, and the political elite paid elaborate lip service to their warnings. However, none of these political leaders truly followed up on these risks in terms of actions and reforms. As a result, the political elite supervising Europe's monetary union turned a great idea - the creation of a unified currency - into a huge gamble. Implicit in their reasoning was the idea that Europe's politicians would always be able to improvise an adequate solution to any crisis that might occur. For ten years, the euro and the euro countries prospered. But things changed dramatically with the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Given the basic characteristics of the monetary union, a major crisis was unavoidable: untenable imbalances were enshrined in the different treaties, pacts, and political agreements that led to the creation of the euro in the first place. The continent's politicians never acted on this reality, which makes them the prime culprits for the long, painful death agony of the euro. After its immediate impact, the crisis caused the financial and capital markets to worry about the so-called "sovereign risks," i.e. countries running the risk of becoming insolvent. Although budget deficits in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom were much larger than the aggregate deficit data for the euro area, markets started to home in on the risks posed by separate countries within the European monetary union. Investors recognized that the enormous problem facing Europe was the systematic working of the eurozone itself. Van Overtveldt concludes with an analysis of what lies in wait for the monetary union - and for a deeply divided continent. Either the EMU transforms itself fundamentally or it disintegrates, and the likeliest outcome is the latter. -- from dust jacket

From the acclaimed author of Bernanke's Test, "an essential title for any reader with investments or interest in financial instruments" ( Library Journal ). The End of the Euro begins with an overview of the birth of the euro itself. Understanding this history is essential to understand the anomalies built into the project from the beginning. These anomalies form the subject of chapter two, along with how they led to the situation that turned Greece, Portugal, and Spain into euro-destroying economic disaster areas. Chapter three shows how this was not an unforeseeable situation, as Europe's history is filled with earlier failed attempts to build monetary unions. Chapter four is focused on Germany, by far the most important country within EMU, and why the chances of Germany leaving the union are much higher than is generally assumed. The book concludes with an analysis of what lies in wait for the remains of the monetary union—and for a deeply divided and troubled continent in general. Either the EMU transforms itself fundamentally or it disintegrates. "Johan Van Overtveldt is a consistently insightful and incisive writer and I await each of his books with real anticipation." —Tyler Cowen, The Marginal Revolution blog "A whole generation of Europeans has found comfort in the idea that economic cooperation has overruled the pull of power politics and even some basic laws of economics. This book forcefully squashes that illusion. A must-read!" —Jonathan Holslag, research fellow at the Brussels Free University

Offers an analysis of the fate of the euro - and with it, the future of the European Union. This book begins with an overview of the birth of the euro itself. It concludes with an analysis of what lies in wait for the remains of the monetary union - and for a deeply divided and troubled continent in general.